Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 19, 2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMJHFMQYPP8

Conflicts with China are helping Taiwan. The trade war is driving manufacturing away from China toward Taiwan, Vietnam, and Burma, among others. China's travel ban on Taiwan for openly supporting the Hong Kong protests is pushing the Taiwanese to implement better visa privileges with other Asian nationals visiting Taiwan. Not only did last week's occupation of the Hong Kong International Airport break Western confidence in the Chinese "Special Administrative Region", the Hong Kong protests are even affecting business in Macau.

Why the protests? Where did it all start? Follow the money. Of the many factors, one of the best kept secrets around the world is the housing cost for local Hong Kongers. It's called "gentrification". Ordinary Hong Kong citizens can't afford even the least expensive homes without government subsidy in addition to living with family. A Hong Kong jail cell is larger that many homes.

That happened because Hong Kong's government, clearly under the thumb of Beijing, allows Mainland Chinese citizens to move into Hong Kong at such a high rate that new housing can't be built fast enough to keep residential costs affordable. Wealthy Chinese need a place to live, some place where they can enjoy life. They won't find anything nice enough within China proper, so they have to go somewhere with an economy created by the West—somewhere like Hong Kong. That way they can enjoy all the money of China without the lousy lifestyle. In their view, it would be cruel for Hong Kong not to let as many Chinese Mainlanders displace native Hong Kongers as fast as possible.

Protests are entering their eleventh week. One more week will begin a new record of 79 days from the Umbrella Movement in 2014.

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Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 12, 2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smIfvAmACgg

China instructs Hong Kong not to confuse restraint for weakness, notwithstanding that China is making that very mistake with the West in not sponsoring the demands of Hong Kongers that Hong Kong's government keep the Sino-British promise of 1984. China claims that the West has meddled in Hong Kong. The biggest problem with this argument isn't lack of evidence, though evidence is lacking. The bigger problem is need—the West wouldn't need to meddle in order to create the chaos we see in Hong Kong because China has already done more than enough. Balancing Hong Kong's unrest with China's interference, the math adds up.

As China poetically said of Hong Kong, a "blow from the sword of law is waiting for them in the future." China should heed its own words. But, we already knew China was incapable heeding any wisdom, including its own, which is probably why the West doesn't bother commenting anymore. After all that has happened, China recently had the lack of self-awareness to call its growing power a "peaceful rise" in defense of growing Australian concerns.

Taiwan is gearing up and arming up. Their new "Cloud Peak" missile can reach Beijing. It's mobile and in mass-production. It still pales in comparison to Beijing's aggression toward everyone, everywhere. But, Taiwan figures, at least an attack from Beijing would hurt in Beijing. But, Beijing's probably not capable of understanding that. So, the Taiwanese can't count on their Cloud Peak missiles as any kind of deterrent, only a disruptor to cripple and confuse and weaken sequential attacks from an attacker who struck first.

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Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, July 29, 2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-aGCQW45lNU

China says that Hong Kong CEO Carrie Lam may not resign because she must remain in power to clean up the mess China started and blames on her. Albeit, staying in power to clean up her scape-goat mess is impossible because cleaning up that mess requires her to resign as the people demanded. The "mess" includes her being there in the first place—because her election was not from self-governance as Hong Kongers were promised in 1984. The mess also includes China saying who may and may not resign—because China doesn't get a say about one grain of sand in Hong Kong until 2047.

The whole problem goes back to China's inability to not meddle. A Beijing-managed group based in Shenzhen has been carefully researching and observing the developments in Hong Kong so that Beijing can know how to properly respond—whatever that's supposed to mean. Make no mistake, they aren't trying to understand how to govern a free people or understand the reasonable requests of a free and self-motivated economy. They aren't trying to learn whatever wisdom might have made the West so rich and powerful in the first place. No, Beijing is on a mission to Sinicize Hong Kong out of being Hong Kong.

The current task is to figure out how to "disappear" 2 million Hong Kongers without the world noticing. Hong Kong's police under-reported the 2 million turnout; they'll probably under-report the number of "disappeared" people as well, and they need research to make it sound convincing. If the protests had happened in Xinjiang, Beijing wouldn't need to do such research because the world wouldn't be watching because making 2 million people disappear in Xinjiang was never a problem in the past. And, that's what Hong Kongers rightly fear.

Beijing's research narrative presumes that Hong Kongers only fear being "Xinjianged" because some phantom, invisible Western influence influenced them. They have no proof of this, but that's Beijing's presumption. If there's a problem, it must be America's fault. So, Beijing's approach is to sneak around and spy from the shadows until this phantom "influence monster" from the evil West shows its face. That's Beijing's plan to solve the Hong Kong problem.

Now, there's constitutional discussion about where and how Hong Kong's "Basic Law" allows military intervention from China, namely if Hong Kong's government asks. But, the whole discussion misses the whole point—that Hong Kong's Basic Law is based on the Sino-British Joint Declaration of 1984 of non-interference from Beijing. Beijing already interfered by not allowing self-governance in Hong Kong as promised. Not letting Carry Lam resign is yet another violation of that promise and premise. So, technically, the law beneath the Basic Law has already been dissolved. And, Beijing only incriminates itself further by claiming that promises made in the past don't need to be kept because they are in the past.

Pay attention because, while Taiwan is a linchpin that will bring America into war with China, Hong Kong is the linchpin that will bring the UK and Europe along with it.

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Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, July 22, 2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubK8VyxMk6A

In the singing, fake-smiling scenes of Uyghurs in reeducation camps in China, the Chinese expect the world to be swayed to believe they are happy. That's how Chinese view it with each other—they fake-smile at each other and buy the lie because they hope other people buy into their own fake smiles. The Chinese have no idea that Westerners know when they are truly happy and truly not, being able to tell a fake smile when we see one—or two or ten thousand.

If Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang and China's Global Times tabloid editor Hu Xijin are right—that the White House shouldn't get "the credit" for China's sinking economy—then China would be thankful, but they aren't. It's just more Chinese chicken-chest thumping. So focused on forcing the world to love them back, the Chinese Communist Party and their media puppets are unaware of how they come across to the rest of the world that actually does not need to bend to their demands.

Xi Jinping is the modern Hitler. He calmly talks of peace, claims to not want war, then rouses his sleeping anger to growl that he will use force if necessary. The concentration-brainwashing camps are set up and well-marketed. Everyday shows more unapologetic expansionism upon territories who want nothing to do with China. Symphony's Asian Mad Scientist Theorem is proving too accurate for comfort and Hong Kong doesn't want any part.

China might as well get used to this happening in Taiwan, though they won't accept that the Taiwanese won't accept Chinese rule any more than Hong Kongers. The difference is that Taiwan has missiles and a military. And, multiple times throughout half a millennium of adversity, Taiwan is only conquered by the enormous mainland when the enormous mainland is already conquered by something else. Mayor Han of Kaohsiung, the KMT-Nationalist contender in the upcoming presidential election in Taiwan, has already been defeated for the populist he is. The election isn't over, but then again it kind of already is.

Hong Kong has drawn so much attention that Taiwan is looking into asylum avenues, the EU is voicing support for Hong Kong protesters' demands, and Britain is looking to support not just Hong Kong, but also Taiwan. China, not having learned from the opium wars, has once again been cruel to the little kid in the Far East, oblivious to the anger awakened in his older brother in the West.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, July 15, 2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hRBhjE86LKo

China's recent obsession with arresting Canadians is easier to understand and predict if it is seen as an attempt to alienate US allies from the US. Based on this, we can expect mistreatment of other US citizen allies in the future. They did something similar with an Australian back in January. By lashing out at citizens of US allies, China—more than likely—hopes to make those countries regret being friends with the US...

...because that works in Chinese culture's inside baseball.

Something about Chinese-Confucian culture is obsessed with "the group" and "uniform conformity". When someone steps "out of line"—whatever the groupthink happens to have decided "the line" is this afternoon—others within that culture instinctively begin to attack that person like hyenas attack an isolated impala in the wild. It's almost as if they are governed by a hypnotic auto-think. Small charges, snaps, and bites slowly creep in from any and every side until the group kills and devours whoever tried to be different.

This is exactly what China has done to Taiwan's allies. Most of them caved. Senator Rubio lashed out at El Salvador for abandoning Taiwan last August when the trend became annoyingly obvious. Since it worked with them, maybe China thinks it will work with the English-speaking world.

But, the Chinese only learn "Chinglish" at best, whether with language or with culture. There attempt will only backfire and that will explain the members of the coming alliance that defeats China in the fast-approaching scuffle. And, it will explain the coming alliance that nations just east of China will soon deepen with the English-speaking world, as well as the growing alienation between English-America and Latin-America. But, that won't be seen for another decade.

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Symphony

Cadence of Conflict, Asia, July 8, 2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnbkog5BUzA

China has been had. It has been had by Western freedom. It has been had by its own culture's psychopathology. It has been had by the concept of a promise—something the Chinese can't understand, let alone keep. It has been had by Marxist propaganda. And, it is still being had by its obsession with power.

British officials are turning their eyes toward Hong Kong. This is a move of revival in the English-speaking world. The English have a conscience. It is more than political smoke-blowing. Britain fully intends to protect the people of Hong Kong. And, they can do it because China has already reneged on a treaty registered with the United Nations.

China has difficulty understanding the concept of a promise. Living fully and wholly by the psychopathology of Gorgias—that all statements are lies and only rhetoric matters—the Chinese truly believe that their promise to not interfere with Hong Kong until 2047 is irrelevant trivia. They truly believe that if the world distrusts China for breaking treaty, it would be the world just looking for ways to be mean to poor, suffering, victimized China. They truly believe that any "distrust" from the West, citing broken promises, would be pure propaganda from any and all, everywhere on Earth.

The British dealt with China for centuries. They must have at least suspected that China would break treaty. In fair honesty, by allowing a fifty year window, they showed high hopes that China would at least be capable of pretending to have a conscience for half a century. If China could lie to the world for fifty years and conceal its spite for any race lacking Han blood—if China could at least pretend to be nice for fifty years—then perhaps Hong Kong would be safe long after 2047. Britain gave China the benefit of the doubt.

But, China didn't make it fifty years, not even half that.

Call it temptation. Call it the "Tienanmen fix". China can't not oppress and boss and dominate. From Beijing, Hong Kong calls, begging, "Oppress me! Oppress me!"

From Xi Jinping's perspective is one of power. He believes that the Russian Communist downfall of 1989 happened because the Communists didn't oppress enough. It never occurs to him that people do not overthrow governments that they trust—but to a psychopath, all statements are lies and all protests are propaganda. People would only hate an oppressive government, so they think, because someone told them to.

Hong Kong knows differently. Though they do not have complete self-rule, they do have free speech, free markets, free press, and free religion. To them, China stinks, and not only from the pollution of mismanagement.

Still, China wants to force its embrace upon the free people of Hong Kong. The legal justice system has a term for criminals who force their love on unwilling victims. In that scenario, everyone knows who everyone is.

Like an alcoholic claiming that alcohol is the medicine, China sees voluntary support as a threat—as a lack of power—and that power is the cure for power resisted. China has been had by everyone, its own vices above all else.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, July 1, 2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFE9utWKIpQ

The Korean DMZ is the hottest new place to socialize! Dear Leaders charge to the border to shake hands. Presidents line up early to get a good spot. Few diplomatic maneuvers or promises on trade can compete with the political electricity and friendship found at the one border in Asia that has no military.

Trump's visit to Kim Jong-Un on his way home paid a great honor to the leader who was not at the G20 summit. Peace in Korea means a harder sell for countries seeking something else.

Leaders at G20 smiled for the camera and acted like best friends forever, reassuring their citizens back home. But, a bridge that spans 90% of a river is neither a bridge nor a dock, it's just an obstruction. Trade is on the table. Trump made a gesture without tread, allowing American companies to work with Huawei, as long as they don't help Huawei in the ways Trump claims Huawei continues to threaten security. Xi smiled, but didn't seem impressed.

Hong Kong protests have continued four weekends in a row.

If we look at the Hong Kong protests from the view of the Asian Mad Scientist Theorem, everything makes perfect sense. Experimentation with North Korea is finished and moved onto China. Now, it's time to see what happens when attempting to impose tyranny onto an unarmed, peaceful, free-thinking, free-speaking people.

Their main reaction was to petition G20 nations the week of the G20 summit. China has declared Hong Kong to be an internal matter that will not be discussed at G20. This creates a dilemma similar to the line between an internal family matter vs the kids banging on the neighbors' door to report domestic violence. If internal matters escalate to a certain point, then can't not become external matters.

Grenville Cross should be investigated for unhealthy ties to Beijing. Being the director of public prosecutions starting in 1997, when Hong Kong was handed over to Beijing, and with his recent "opinion" piece, more of a political rebuke of the protestors, he is operating as Beijing's mouthpiece and overlooked one important part of Hong Kong's Basic Law—mainly that Beijing may never, ever, ever interfere. He should be investigated as an accomplice with a means and a now evident motive.

The Huawei FedEx package returned to Sascha Segan doesn't seem to be a lash-out at China, but a lash-out at Trump.

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Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, June 24, 2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4TngGdDx1Q

We are not headed to a Second Cold War. We are not at risk of heading to a Second Cold War. We are traveling at trans-warp speed toward the First Flash War. It will start and end quickly, laying the groundwork for WWIII and FWII to follow.

These pieces of our times are important to distinguish. Different analysts with different levels of understanding of history are trying their best to explain our times. To a novice—either to history or to the West or to the East—who just begins to understand, it may seem like we are headed toward Cold War II.

China and the US are in a growing conflict on the surface, but Russia is whispering in China's ear. Russia wants the same old thing. The US is generally unaware of Russia's intent or dismisses it.

China thinks that the US wants to retain power. China wants to rise, so Beijing feels the need to "beat back" the US.

The US knows China wants to rise and doesn't mind. The US wants to step back, but knows China is an undisciplined bully—lawless and doesn't respect human rights. So, the US feels the need to "beat down" China to make Beijing behave.

The US takes the approach of protectionism and innovation—tariffs and moving manufacturing back home. China takes the approach of its domineering culture and copying others—both doomed to fail.

One of the Chinese's biggest complaints used to justify their military aggression in the South Sea is American presence. The claim is that the US has 180 military bases throughout East Asia, rephrased "near China". Because of this, China calls America the "aggressor" and, like the burglar who thinks society stole from him first, says its military response is justified.

The US has been in many of those places since the end of WWII and after the Korean War. The Chinese didn't know about this US presence because their surveillance tech wasn't good enough. Once China reverse-engineered and stole designs for enough Western tech—because they still don't know how to invent it on their own—they started to see that Americans had been their the whole time.

The "Second Coming Cold War" argument is flawed because we've already been in such a "cold" standoff for seven decades. That's how Beijing interprets it anyway, and now the Chinese want to heat things up.

Consider the contradiction. For over 70 years, Americans have been quietly watching the seas. They didn't harass fishermen. They didn't aim missiles and launch threats. They didn't attempt to ram into other boats. They never tried to deny passage through international waters. China has done all these things, but not the US—in 70 years! So, because of that, the US is the aggressor? That's Beijing-style thinking anyway. And, that way of thinking is what Washington feels the need to defeat before it gets any bigger.

This week documented a Chinese general committing two "no-nos". Firstly, he commented on the social structure of Hong Kong—military leaders are supposed to remain outside of politics. Secondly, the thus  proven military government of China thus also proved disdain for the law it must abide by. Motive is one vital burden of proof in a conviction. Not only had Beijing meddled where it wasn't allowed, but we now have an established motive.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, June 17, 2019

Trump's so-called "trade war" with China was never any failed attempt at relations. It was a way to get American companies out of China before the inevitable crud hit the fan. With Hong Kong's government ignoring it's people, we can see Trump's wisdom with China.

One million people in a population of just over 7 million protested a Beijing-backed extradition law in Hong Kong. Protests continued all week until a second, larger march returned one week later. What in the world is happening in the Far East? To understand Hong Kong, first take a look at Taiwan.

Much like the Asian Mad Scientist Theorem for North Korea, consider the Taiwan Schedule Theorem, as follows: Unknown to the world, China has a military expansion schedule which requires possession of Taiwan. By a certain time, Beijing wants to use Taiwan's harbors to anchor China's Navy. Anything that threatens or delays that schedule causes China to take more extreme steps elsewhere, in fact anywhere, anyway. This isn't truth; it's a theorem that explains a lot.

For example, the DPP being elected in 2016 meant a slow in China's schedule for Taiwan—according to this theorem. That led Beijing to lean on Taiwan's allies, making them break off formal relations with Taipei.

With this theorem in mind, the goal of the US would, then, be to make as many disruptions with China's "Taiwan schedule" as possible, provoking China to exhaust its "other" ways to respond to schedule delays. Trade would be one way China could respond to schedule delays. But, the US trade war already removed "trade" as way to retaliate.

Another way China expands its power is through unofficial loans. Sri Lanka had to surrender a strategic sea port to China because of debt. Moreover, if countries borrow Chinese money off the books, then government bond values are inaccurate. Under-the-table lending is another rout China can take if the "Taiwan schedule" gets delayed, but that's been exposed and won't be so easy in the future.

China's getting boxed-in and Taiwan absorption seems farther and farther away.

With snowballing US-Taiwan cooperation—including the FBI scene last week, also including the $2 Billion in arms sales—China will see more delays. Protesting the G20 set for June 28, 2019 in Osaka would be another way Beijing could retaliate for delays in absorbing Taiwan. But, Trump already promised tariffs on yet another $300 Billion in goods if Xi Jinping doesn't show.

Chinese ambassadors to G20 countries are promoting anti-US sentiment. Will those countries be likely to side with China against the US just because a Beijing ambassador told them what to do? Even Hong Kongers don't like Beijing telling their CEO what to do. Perhaps Beijing doesn't know that. Perhaps Beijing knows, but doesn't care. Perhaps everyone "kowtowing" to China's demands over the last 40 years has led the Chinese to believe they are more influential than they really are. Beijing doesn't seem to be aware of where it stands with international opinion. But, it might find out soon.

Does any Chinese president show up where he is not welcome? Think about that...

With Trump's G20 threat in place, if Xi Jinping shows up at G20 where his anti-US diplomacy efforts "un-welcomed" him, then people will think he succumbs to threats and is weak. If he doesn't show, then Trump will lecture China publicly about "keeping a schedule" while Xi's country faces tariffs on $300 Billion of goods, and Xi will be seen as weak. More importantly, with new tariffs, China would be even less able to retaliate to delays in the "Taiwan schedule". Either way, drama over G20 exhausts China and leads to a checkmate.

If Taiwan is considered a playing "card", then it is a "trump" card, as they say. Taiwan might be a chess piece, but not one that gets sacrificed. Taiwan may be the pawn-turned-queen to hold the king in check at the end game.

Now, consider Hong Kong, where a "to other countries including China" extradition law brought out 1 Million Hong Kongers in protest, twice. CEO Carrie Lam outright ignored the protestorstwice. She's sad—not about her proposed extradition law, but that the law is opposed. Ignoring 1/7th of the population when they march in the streets is a bad idea in any country, in any universe. But, Carrie doesn't care, thus reflecting the worldview of any Beijinger.

Taiwan responded by deciding that it would not cooperate with the Hong Kong extradition law, even if passed, until "human rights" were addressed and only if Hong Kong heeded the opinion of its people in choosing whether to pass the law. Without Taiwan's support, the largest—if not only—reason known to the public for the law has vanished. And, it's all because of Taiwan.

One important factor in the "Taiwan schedule" is the upcoming election. Things seemed to be leaning toward Mayor Han of Kaohsiung for the KMT-Nationalist party. But, the events in Hong Kong over the past week have weakened Han and almost certainly assured a second term for Taiwan's incumbent, President Tsai. That means only more delays in the "schedule"

If Beijing can't get a grip on Taiwan quickly, Beijing will tighten its grip on Hong Kong even more.

But, Hong Kong is small and already attached to the mainland and doesn't lend itself to much in the way of retaliation. Too many changes in Hong Kong law and countries will break treaty with Hong Kong and the "Asia's World City" show will be finished. Once Hong Kong is no longer sufficient for Beijing to lash out over delays with Taiwan, the only retaliation left will be to invade Taiwan. That was Washington's goal all along—a fight for Taiwan that requires Pentagon intervention—and long-term presence after—and China started it.

Beijing might be willing for a pro-unification candidate to win  Taiwan's election. But, if other things crowd in too quickly—say the US normalizes with Taiwan—the 2020 election wouldn't help the "Taiwan schedule" either way. Beijing needs to give Washington a reason not to formalize ties with Taipei, and so far they haven't. G20 will decide a lot; China voting "absent" will decide a lot more a lot more quickly. Based on this Taiwan Schedule Theorem, expect more jeers and insults leading up to G20, from both sides, at the end of this month and expect Beijing to try every way to tighten its grip on Hong Kong.

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Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, June 17, 2019

Trump's so-called "trade war" with China was never any failed attempt at relations. It was a way to get American companies out of China before the inevitable crud hit the fan. With Hong Kong's government ignoring it's people, we can see Trump's wisdom with China.

One million people in a population of just over 7 million protested a Beijing-backed extradition law in Hong Kong. Protests continued all week until a second, larger march returned one week later. What in the world is happening in the Far East? To understand Hong Kong, first take a look at Taiwan.

Much like the Asian Mad Scientist Theorem for North Korea, consider the Taiwan Schedule Theorem, as follows: Unknown to the world, China has a military expansion schedule which requires possession of Taiwan. By a certain time, Beijing wants to use Taiwan's harbors to anchor China's Navy. Anything that threatens or delays that schedule causes China to take more extreme steps elsewhere, in fact anywhere, anyway. This isn't truth; it's a theorem that explains a lot.

For example, the DPP being elected in 2016 meant a slow in China's schedule for Taiwan—according to this theorem. That led Beijing to lean on Taiwan's allies, making them break off formal relations with Taipei.

With this theorem in mind, the goal of the US would, then, be to make as many disruptions with China's "Taiwan schedule" as possible, provoking China to exhaust its "other" ways to respond to schedule delays. Trade would be one way China could respond to schedule delays. But, the US trade war already removed "trade" as way to retaliate.

Another way China expands its power is through unofficial loans. Sri Lanka had to surrender a strategic sea port to China because of debt. Moreover, if countries borrow Chinese money off the books, then government bond values are inaccurate. Under-the-table lending is another rout China can take if the "Taiwan schedule" gets delayed, but that's been exposed and won't be so easy in the future.

China's getting boxed-in and Taiwan absorption seems farther and farther away.

With snowballing US-Taiwan cooperation—including the FBI scene last week, also including the $2 Billion in arms sales—China will see more delays. Protesting the G20 set for June 28, 2019 in Osaka would be another way Beijing could retaliate for delays in absorbing Taiwan. But, Trump already promised tariffs on yet another $300 Billion in goods if Xi Jinping doesn't show.

Chinese ambassadors to G20 countries are promoting anti-US sentiment. Will those countries be likely to side with China against the US just because a Beijing ambassador told them what to do? Even Hong Kongers don't like Beijing telling their CEO what to do. Perhaps Beijing doesn't know that. Perhaps Beijing knows, but doesn't care. Perhaps everyone "kowtowing" to China's demands over the last 40 years has led the Chinese to believe they are more influential than they really are. Beijing doesn't seem to be aware of where it stands with international opinion. But, it might find out soon.

Does any Chinese president show up where he is not welcome? Think about that...

With Trump's G20 threat in place, if Xi Jinping shows up at G20 where his anti-US diplomacy efforts "un-welcomed" him, then people will think he succumbs to threats and is weak. If he doesn't show, then Trump will lecture China publicly about "keeping a schedule" while Xi's country faces tariffs on $300 Billion of goods, and Xi will be seen as weak. More importantly, with new tariffs, China would be even less able to retaliate to delays in the "Taiwan schedule". Either way, drama over G20 exhausts China and leads to a checkmate.

If Taiwan is considered a playing "card", then it is a "trump" card, as they say. Taiwan might be a chess piece, but not one that gets sacrificed. Taiwan may be the pawn-turned-queen to hold the king in check at the end game.

Now, consider Hong Kong, where a "to other countries including China" extradition law brought out 1 Million Hong Kongers in protest, twice. CEO Carrie Lam outright ignored the protestorstwice. She's sad—not about her proposed extradition law, but that the law is opposed. Ignoring 1/7th of the population when they march in the streets is a bad idea in any country, in any universe. But, Carrie doesn't care, thus reflecting the worldview of any Beijinger.

Taiwan responded by deciding that it would not cooperate with the Hong Kong extradition law, even if passed, until "human rights" were addressed and only if Hong Kong heeded the opinion of its people in choosing whether to pass the law. Without Taiwan's support, the largest—if not only—reason known to the public for the law has vanished. And, it's all because of Taiwan.

One important factor in the "Taiwan schedule" is the upcoming election. Things seemed to be leaning toward Mayor Han of Kaohsiung for the KMT-Nationalist party. But, the events in Hong Kong over the past week have weakened Han and almost certainly assured a second term for Taiwan's incumbent, President Tsai. That means only more delays in the "schedule"

If Beijing can't get a grip on Taiwan quickly, Beijing will tighten its grip on Hong Kong even more.

But, Hong Kong is small and already attached to the mainland and doesn't lend itself to much in the way of retaliation. Too many changes in Hong Kong law and countries will break treaty with Hong Kong and the "Asia's World City" show will be finished. Once Hong Kong is no longer sufficient for Beijing to lash out over delays with Taiwan, the only retaliation left will be to invade Taiwan. That was Washington's goal all along—a fight for Taiwan that requires Pentagon intervention—and long-term presence after—and China started it.

Beijing might be willing for a pro-unification candidate to win  Taiwan's election. But, if other things crowd in too quickly—say the US normalizes with Taiwan—the 2020 election wouldn't help the "Taiwan schedule" either way. Beijing needs to give Washington a reason not to formalize ties with Taipei, and so far they haven't. G20 will decide a lot; China voting "absent" will decide a lot more a lot more quickly. Based on this Taiwan Schedule Theorem, expect more jeers and insults leading up to G20, from both sides, at the end of this month and expect Beijing to try every way to tighten its grip on Hong Kong.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, June 10, 2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LmAmHTuDbE

Chinese rhetoric spiked over recent weeks. They made threats. Trump made threats. They made more threats. Trump and Xi are BFF, just like Xi and Putin, but Xi and Putin are BFF-er. Now, we move toward quiet action. If China stops exporting "rare earth metals" to the US, the US would simply get them from somewhere else. "Rare" means many countries can get them, but few actually do because China does it so much.

The US is selling several tanks and tank-buster rockets to Taiwan. Beijing isn't happy—about the $2 Billion in weapons sales to Taiwan, but also because of the people who publicly express memory of what happened 30 years ago at Tienanmen Square.

Around the time Taiwan's primaries finish, the US launches its first Ford-class carrier in October, larger than a Nimitz. It still has a year of training and won't be commissioned until 2022.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, June 3, 2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4P54QzLZ9Mo

The "Symphony Asian Mad Scientist Theorem" continues to play out. Trump engaged North Korea in talks that led to a calm without North Korea changing its DNA. Trump eventually reminded North Korea what everyone knew would be necessary to reach an agreement and North Korea stomped off.

Now, Trump comes off a marathon of wider-scope talks with China and continues to talk about talk, while the message is sent more clearly to China every day. China already knows what will be necessary to reach an agreement, its ambitions otherwise are classic Imperial-Confucian wishful thinking.

Over the weekend, the US and China exchanged insults at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Singapore. America isn't gonna' tip-toe around China anymore! And, China will risk any and every cost and will defeat everyone who stands in the way! They sure told each other! We can't say China didn't warn us, just like China warned the world before the victorious Korean armistice and before China's great and splendid invasion of Vietnam.

Don't think for a second that Trump doesn't care about Japan. If he really didn't care about Japan—if he truly enjoyed the missiles recently launched by "Rocket Man"—he wouldn't say so on camera. Remember, everything he says is being closely watched by a large and volatile North Korean neighbor which believes that everyone believes everything published in the press.

No matter how much anyone warns China of the dangerous pinball machine game it's bouncing around inside of, they won't change because China only ever and always remains true to its Imperial-Confucian values. Those values can and will never include "capitulating to outside demands". China just won't change, you see.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 27, 2019

President Trump's response to Kim Jong-Un's recent missile party neither shows lack of a plan nor lack of respect for Japan; it show patience and insight. Gaining and maintaining trust and respect in difficult situations requires sureness in action and slowness in harsh words. Talk is cheap. These are politics, after all.

Trump has taken no action nor signed any orders giving Kim more permission. Many pundits and opinion commentators have speculated that Trump will have difficulty with Abe because of his patient words for Kim, but all of this speculation is speculation only. They are presenting a model to analyze Trump's decisions, but that model is devoid of a grid of using "kind words" in the face of betrayal. Kim's strategy has not deviated: provoke a US response. Trump's words "defuse" that strategy, so to speak. Trump is no pretentious fool, more of a patient father.

The situation in China, however is heating up, obviously for the same reasons. Trump and Xi exchange similar words as Trump gives in response to Kim's actions. They promise to prepare for talks while rallying their own citizens against each other. Rumors of peace are the surest sign that there is none just as provocation indicates a peace not easily broken.

Taiwan is gearing up for war, its war machine in full motion. Taiwan is beginning mass production of strategic strike responses. Taiwan is renaming one of its offices to include both "US" and "Taiwan" in the name, which is a first. These are not actions that have any intention of appeasing Beijing.

Then, there's Hong Kong. Responses from the American government would view the SAR as no longer capable of diplomatic ties if the extradition law on the table is passed. This extradition law would likely isolate Hong Kong from North America and Europe. We know war is close, but "how close" will be known by whether Beijing allows "Asia's World City" to internationally isolate itself.

Those promised and prepared talks between Beijing and Washington will only serve as size-ups, if they even happen.

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Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 20, 2019

Of course China wanted to "re-negotiate". Chinese culture, whether in government or business, seeks to sign a contract first, then negotiate the terms after. In America it's called "reneging". In China is called "that strange, silly, sign a contract game the Americans require that makes no sense". Trump has known that since he had his ties made in China, maybe earlier.

Now, the American provocation machine is in full-swing. An executive order banning Huawei and a DOJ prosecution of Chinese hackers—all while planning another meeting in Japan next month—this isn't failed diplomacy. In the past month, China lobbed one too many objections to US action, thus providing the telemetry the US needed for the final calibrations on the Chinese irritation machine. That machine is up and running and won't stop. It will keep producing irritation at the speed of a 5G network.

As said last week, the problem of the F-35 was already known because the US was no longer interested in searching. This week, we found out the specifics: a fuel tube. Now, we just need to wait for distribution and replacement to get set up.

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