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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 30, 2021

Adversity creates alliance. If China’s goal was to unite the world, it is succeeding. Taiwan and Japan are getting cozier than ever, as are Taiwan and the EU. The shift is happening and maps may need to be redrawn.

The logical outcome is the UK returning all of Hong Kong—including the New Territories—to the British Commonwealth, while Taiwan, Japan, and likely a to-be-united Korea become at least commonwealths of a US-Canada reach. This would be valuable because it places liaison states near each other in the Far East. Britain would have a formal government in Hong Kong. The US and Canada would have nearby governments via Taiwan, Japan, and Korea. So, traveling between the US, Britain, and the rest of Asia could all be done through the Taiwan Strait and South Sea.

From a geo-political planning perspective, it would be well-organized. In light of the PDT Asia Mad Scientist Theorem, we could suspect this is being planned. Based on that, failed control systems in North Korea were not only meant to be implemented in China, but also to eventually annex North Korea under Seoul’s government. When later applied via China’s policy, that would trigger events that later subject all of China under a regional cooperation headed by Western governments from both sides of the Atlantic. In other words, North Korea is a test to oppress, fail, and unite under democracy. That test eventually applies to make China fail, then China would be forced to accept formal friendliness with Britain and the US via Taiwan-Japan-Korea states under the US and a Hong Kong province under Britain. The thought is chilling for Chinese Communists.

But, that’s where things are headed. When China objects to a country talking with Taiwan, no one cares anymore. China’s opinion has been reduced to global insignificance—a living hell for respect-obsessed Chinese leaders. Sending more and more military to places without global agreement, then defending itself with insignificant opinions, tightens the noose. China remains its own worst enemy, not only in military defeat, but also inviting its region of the world to be willfully subjected under Western governments.

It is as if the whole thing is planned, and China keeps dancing on cue.

Taiwan

More than half of US support defense of Taiwan: survey // Taipei Times

Taiwan, Japan ruling parties talk trade // Taipei Times

EU committee to discuss Taiwan ties this week // Taipei Times

Military Faceoff

US warship, cutter transit Taiwan Strait // Taipei Times

Analysis: In the turbulent South China Sea, the US Navy bets on a troubled warship // CNN

USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) Commences Planned Incremental Availability – Naval News // Naval News

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia August 16, 2021

Taiwan continues to shine. Aide sent to Haiti after a devastating earthquake combines growing ties with Lithuania. China objects—and those are bad optics that China’s speech-control can’t control outside its borders.

China has been rewriting religion for years. Hymnals already read love for government rather than love for God. Now, we see more investigations against Hong Kong demonstrators who sought to uphold China’s agreement to democracy. In essence, China is investigating itself, indicating that China is divided against itself.

As a representative office exchange between Taiwan and Lithuania moves forward for this Fall, so do Taiwan’s de facto ties with the rest of the EU. China would rather object to this than be supportive of earthquake victims in Haiti. That is the obvious news narrative to take from what happened this week.

What’s not obvious is Taiwan’s prejudice against foreigners. Taiwan is having trouble building its submarines because of a shortage of engineering talent. Taiwan’s solution is to recruit more foreign talent. However, neither the problem nor the need for recruitment would exist if Taiwan had reciprocal regulations concerning immigration: protection of foreigner’s rights, five years leads to full citizenship, and dropping Taiwan’s ban on dual citizenship. To become a Taiwanese citizen, one must renounce original citizenship. America doesn’t require that. Taiwan does, then complains about losing allies to China. Does Lithuania’s government know how Taiwan treated its immigrants even to this day?

Had Taiwan treated others how they want to be treated, they wouldn’t have the trouble they do. And, Taiwan would not look like such a delicious target for war-thirsty China. The big danger is that US failure in Afghanistan on Sunday will encourage China’s calculus that an invasion of Taiwan is feasible. Combined with Taiwan’s self-inflicted weakness from discrimination against foreigners, China’s invasion question is more of a likelihood.

But, looking at even deeper strategy, we must consider China’s accusation that the US is playing games. If that were so, then failure in Afghanistan was staged by the US to provoke China into viewing the US as weaker than it is, and the US allowing non-reciprocal treatment of its own citizens in Taiwan would be intended to weaken Taiwan for strategic purposes as well.

Regardless of China’s conspiracy theory—which Chinese strategists never imagine to such length—the peaceful path would be for China to not take the invitation for attack and for Taiwan to treat others with respect. Like Jesus wanting to die on the Cross, a power that welcomes disrespect is up to something. But, the devil is none the wiser.

China

CCP using laws to suppress religious freedom: MAC // Taipei Times

China signals crackdown on society to go on // Taipei Times

Taiwan

Talent shortage hampers military projects: official // Taipei Times

Taiwan to donate US$500,000 to quake-hit Haiti // Taipei Times

Ministry thanks US for Lithuania boost // Taipei Times

Hong Kong

Hong Kong police investigating protest group behind massive democracy rallies // Taipei Times

Military Faceoff

The Army’s first laser weapon is almost ready for a fight // Task & Purpose

Chinese See U.S. Littoral Combat Ship as ‘Powerful Tool’ in Future Distributed Conflicts // USNI News

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Encore of Revival: America, August 16, 2021

Competence and tolerance! The Taliban has taken over Afghanistan. The former president, hated from both Taliban and a third party in Afghanistan, fled to Tajikistan. At press time, the 36-acre American embassy was near fully-evacuated if not completely. Taliban leaders pledge tolerance, cooperation, and no retribution against allies of the former government. They say they want a relationship with the United States. The American ambassador requested to stay.

Will we see peace and promises kept? That has yet to be seen, but the promise is a first step and will be remembered by God. Muslims claim to worship the God of Abraham. We’ll see the Taliban’s part in that too, and the Times will help everyone remember.

From America’s perspective, look at Biden’s leadership. Such turns of events did not happen under Trump.  Biden blames his predecessor. Trump supporters may argue sowing and reaping—that coup begets coup. Biden’s election hinged on anomalous results in precincts with proven rule-breaking. That doubt was never cleared-up in the minds Trump supporters, though they have been smeared. That doesn’t seem like tolerance from the party of tolerance and choice. Nor does pressure—social, legal, or commercial—for vaccines seem like “choice” from the party of choice.

So, in the minds of Trump supporters, who may believe that coup begot coup, the Taliban’s “tolerance and cooperation” in Afghanistan may not pan out. But, we’ll have to wait and see. A promise kept from the Taliban would be welcome.

Did Trump stir the pot with his rhetoric? Maybe. But, the Capitol revolt in lieu of unresolved election irregularities and table pounding from Trump was as bad as it got. In the minds of Biden supporters—according to their votes and what followed—, the situation in Afghanistan is preferable to the Tweets of Trump. Some might reconsider their votes on both sides.

The big issue is leadership and results. Taliban strategy to take over Afghanistan did not consider the response from the former US president as much as it considered the response from the current US president. During the tenure of the current US president, the Taliban won and the US ran. Voters can see things for what they are.

Scandal, Graft & White Collar Crime

Cuomo resigns: What we know, what we don’t and what’s next // AP

Markets, Economy & GDP

Consumer sentiment measure falls to pandemic-era low, sees one of largest drops on record // CNBC

Monopoly & Big Greed

Elon Musk mocks Blue Origin’s moon lander after the company argued against SpaceX winning a $2.9 billion NASA contract // Business Insider

How the U.S. military plans to replace the iconic Humvee on future frontlines // CNBC

Bill Gates pledges $1.5 billion for climate change projects if Congress passes infrastructure bill // CNBC

Some Amazon customers are cutting Prime after Jeff Bezos’ trip to space: ‘I am over paying’ for ‘a zillionaire’s rocket ride’ // Business Insider

Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates are among the billionaires paying a total of $15 million to fund a search for metals used in electric vehicles // Yahoo News

Natural Disaster

As of Sunday evening:
Death toll of powerful earthquake in Haiti soars to 1,297 // AP

Pandemic

Man is stabbed in LA when fight breaks out at a protest over pushing back against vaccine mandates // Daily Mail

Mid East

Taliban claims cooperation, tolerance
Afghan president flees country for Tajikistan: official // Taipei Times

‘They are coming’: US diplomats await flights out of Kabul as the Taliban advance and fear spreads in the capital // Stars and Stripes

Taliban sweep into Afghan capital after government collapses // AP

The day before…
Biden braces for brutal defeat in Afghanistan // Axios

Afghan president flees country as U.S. rushes to exit with Taliban on brink of power // NBC News

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, July 19, 2021

China faces a three-pronged attack in the realm of public opinion. The Olympics converge with COVID; the third is three levelings up in Chinese military aggression.

COVID is seen in the public eye as having mainly originated from China. Even with conspiracy theories surrounding Faucci and Gates, no explanation lets China off the hook. That actually works to argue against the conspiracy theories—if they were true, they would seem to give China an alibi, but they don’t. Every noteworthy theory on the COVID origin points to China.

Now, COVID is crashing the Olympics in Japan.

This makes an additional bad connotation against China and the Olympics. So, with China wanting to host the 2022 Olympics, boycotts against China can be expected even from the Japanese. Then, other countries will feel comfortable joining the anti-China Olympic boycott. Such boycotts from across the globe will achieve two things: fueling popular hatred against China and inflaming China’s emotional-shame reaction. The Chinese government will dig in its heels and the world will want the Chinese dead where they stand.

But, adding to both sentiments are China’s military saber rattling. Surprise military drills within 300 miles of Taiwan, a step up in Chinese vessels observing a US-Australia navy drill, threats to nuke Japan if Japan honors a treaty to defend Taiwan from invasion—these also enrage the non-Chinese public against China. China has the control to stop global anti-China sentiment: stop giving excuses. But, that is a course of action that emotionally-driven shame doesn’t understand. And, no one expects this response better than the masterminds of the West.

Indo-Pacific

Nukes!
China threatens to nuke Japan if country intervenes in Taiwan conflict // News.com.au

China

Covid: Is China’s vaccine success waning in Asia? // BBC News

Second Chinese vessel to watch US-Australia drill // Taipei Times

Zero risk? Virus cases test Olympic organizers’ assurances // AP

Taiwan

In Taiwan’s backyard
China conducts naval exercise in East China Sea // Taiwan News

Defense spending could rise more than NT$10bn // Taipei Times

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 3, 2021

Navies from across the globe are holding a slumber party in the East Pacific, namely the South Sea. British and other Europeans join the US, Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, and of course China. Everyone says they want things to be calm and normal. But, the elephant in the slumber party living room is Taiwan. China maintains a policy of planning to take control either by hostile takeover or hostile invasion.

North Koreans aren’t happy with Biden. He says he will use the American-despised method called ‘diplomacy’. But, what diplomacy compares to the first president to meet with the Great Successor—twice? Biden and his team of wonderfuls are thrilled to be rid of divisive riff-raff like the first president to achieve diplomacy talks with North Korea head-to-head. Now that things are improving in America, we can get back to hostility as usual with the Korean peninsula.

If the other members of the East Pacific navy slumber party were serious about peace, they would freeze all Chinese assets until China renounced its Taiwan invasion policy and gave half of its navy to Taiwan as evidence. That won’t happen, but it just goes to prove that no one wants peace in the Pacific—they just want a navy slumber party. And, that’s what they’ve got. And, weapons manufacturers are thrilled.

Taiwan

Chinese man crosses Strait on raft // Taipei Times

Korean Peninsula

N Korea warns of response to Biden’s ‘hostile policy’ // Taipei Times

Myanmar

Seven dead in Myanmar as Amnesty accuses army of ‘killing spree’ // Aljazeera

Military Faceoff

China’s carrier group conducts exercises in South China Sea // Aljazeera

China’s new amphibious assault ship to carry multi-type helicopters, ‘enters world-class’ ranks // Global Times (China Govt)

British name enormous carrier strike group heading for the Indo-Pacific // Defense News

UK to send Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier to Japan, S Korea // Aljazeera

China simultaneously commissions three warships on Navy anniversary // Defense News

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, April 19, 2021

China is over the line. There is no way that a nation which knows its own military limits would act as China is acting. Chinese militarized ships anchoring near the Philippines provide just one example. If China had the power to invade, they would have already. Not having that power, the Chinese keep quietly pressing their luck, creeping sneakily as they have only ever been able to. This time, however, they sneaked too far.

China wants a fight more than anyone. News is the same week by week: More people hate China. China keeps pushing others around. Risk of military conflict escalates in the Western Pacific. So, the Chinese don’t think they need to change one, single thing.

Indo-Pacific

Surigae, the first typhoon of 2021, could become Earth’s first Category 5 this year, now heads towards the northern Philippines this weekend // Severe Weather Europe

Trade & Tech

Jack Ma’s fortune jumps $2 billion after record Alibaba fine // Alarabiya

China forces Jack Ma’s Ant Group to restructure // BBC News

China

From cover-up to propaganda blitz: China’s attempts to control the narrative on Xinjiang // CNN

Taiwan

Typhoon Surigae to bring no drought relief to western Taiwan // Taiwan News

Taiwan’s president says Chinese military activities threaten regional stability // CNBC

Military Faceoff

US-China saber-rattling heightens East Sea tensions, risks: experts // e.vnexpress.net

Nimitz Wins CY2020 Aircraft Carrier Battle ‘E’ // US Navy

As the US Navy scrambles to field more missiles in Asia, a tough decision looms for aging cruisers // Defense News

Beijing has a navy it doesn’t even admit exists, experts say. And it’s swarming parts of the South China Sea // CNN

US and China deploy aircraft carriers in South China Sea // CNN

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, April 12, 2021

China’s getting more flack from more sides—Vietnam, Japan, the Philippines. Vietnamese are furious with H&M for depicting maps with Vietnam-claimed islands as part of China, even though H&M did that because the Chinese told them to. The noose of perceived nuisance tightens.

China won’t back off on military drills and presence. The greatest beneficiaries are Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics. They have every reason to hope China continues military drills. A Chinese aircraft recently radioed reference to airspace as “Chinese”, which Taiwan also claims. Weapons dealers are probably clanging champagne glasses over that.

Military activity in the Southeast Asia is on the uptick. No one plans to back down. The question is over which side is reacting how the other side expected. The accurate expector will likely win the next scuffle.

Indo-Pacific

China Tells Japan to Stay Out of Hong Kong, Xinjiang Issues // Bloomberg

H&M faces Vietnam boycott over South China Sea map // Nikkei Asian Review

Philippines warns China of ‘unwanted hostilities’ in sea dispute // Aljazeera

China

$2.78B
China fines Alibaba billions for alleged market abuses // Guardian

Xinjiang cotton: Western brands blurred on China TV // BBC News

Taiwan

Photo of the Day: Taiwan’s Sun Moon desert // Taiwan News

China says US to blame for tensions over Taiwan // Taiwan News

US eases limits on Taiwan contacts // Taipei Times

US bill to pressure China on trade, support Taiwan // Taipei Times

Taiwan education minister supports athletes preparing for Beijing Olympics // Taiwan News

Military Faceoff

Navy Aircraft Carrier Strike Group Passes Through Suez Canal // Military.com

China’s moves in Strait ‘destabilizing,’ US says // Taipei Times

China vows regular carrier group drills // Taipei Times

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, March 29, 2021

China’s adversaries face a tightly closing decision. America needs to decide whether it can keep playing the role of the world-cop with only its B-game, or if it is ready to bust out its A-game not seen since FDR. More than ever, warnings of “rising China” smatter the presses. Will this result in Americans getting serious about the need to be serious—because they read about it? Or, is this intended to prepare the American public for some event that thrusts the West into an embarrassing scuffle with China?—embarrassing for China now, embarrassing for the West six years later.

Taiwan has its own choices. Many things inside Taiwan still reflect the thinking of Mainland China. While Taiwan’s government claims to seek democracy and a society where all people are respected with equal rights, their Confucian culture still succumbs to autocratic domineering, whether in the workplace, the classroom, or from government. If in their hearts, the Taiwanese want to retain the old ways of the Chinese, there is no American military big enough to help them against any adversary, even the smallest adversary. But, the factor of Taiwanese culture doesn’t seem to make its way into the military reports.

Indo-Pacific

China’s growing firepower casts doubt on whether U.S. could defend Taiwan // NBC News

China

China slaps 5-year tariffs on Australian wine // Taiwan News

Japanese garment retailer MUJI clarifies use of Xinjiang cotton amid boycotting outrage // Global Times (China Govt)

China attacks foreign clothing, shoe brands over Xinjiang // Taiwan News

Xinjiang workers enjoy full freedom and benefits working in Guangdong, academics find through 9-month-long field study // Global Times (China Govt)

Australia

‘Deficient’ shipment of Chinese aluminium forces delay to Navy’s Cape Class patrol boats // ABC News Australia

Military Faceoff

Classified US military war game set to take place as concerns about threats posed by China and Russia increase // CNN

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Encore of Revival: America, March 29, 2021

America faces big changes, but not the changes our conventional political grid might assume. Public trust in cloud platforms like Amazon, Facebook, and Twitter failed with the massive censorship surrounding the 2020 election. This week, a new cloud provider, Digital Ocean, went public. The Times has used Digital Ocean for nearly seven years.

Digital commerce shifts while the global supply chain faces more disruptions. Not only do we still lack supplies that were made in factories that are closed. Not only is the cruise ship industry floundering. The Suez Canal is blocked.

What is Democrat-controlled Washington doing?—Business as usual. Binden wants to focus on infrastructure—a digression from the Obama years. Republicans have always been good at spending money while appearing not to, while Democrats appear to spend money when they tighten the purse strings. Marketing is one of the best-kept secret ingredients in American politics.

The one thing unusual about this Democratic Washington is its dedication to a strong military. Russia surfaced three subs in the Arctic this week and, now all of a sudden, Democrats want to do military the same way Trump did. Just how the Bush-Obama years held a contiguous policy progression, the Trump-Biden years seem to reflect the competence, military, and infrastructure of FDR. In many ways, it is as if Trump is still in office. We did get Trump’s $2,000 checks, after all.

Trump

The Unlikely Team of Prosecutors Hunting Donald Trump in Georgia // Daily Beast

Obama Biden Harris

Biden is betting on bigger government. The pandemic may be helping him. // MSN News

Path from Clinton to Biden takes U-turn on debt, trade, more // ABC News America

White House

Trump let OANN in the White House. Now it’s Biden’s problem. // Politico

Washington as Usual

Soc Media, Cybersecurity & Tech

Independent cloud provider DigitalOcean drops in Wall Street debut // CNBC

Markets, Economy & GDP

CDC Rejects Cruise Industry Push To Resume Sailing, Sending Stocks Tumbling // Forbes

Mid East

Syria forced to ration fuel as stricken ship keeps Suez Canal blocked // CNN

The Suez Canal Has Been Blocked and Closed Several Times Since Opening // Business Insider

NATO Focus

Three Russian Ballistic Missile Submarines Just Surfaced Through The Arctic Ice Together // The Drive

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, February 22, 2021

China is mixing its civilian population with military front lines. This new Sansha “City” probably should be called a province and not a “city”. Leave it to the Chinese and Taiwanese governments to garble province-level translation. It’s not anything the West considers a city. But, it was planted in the middle of international waters, is used as a basis for applying Chinese law in more places, is highly contested by neighbors like Vietnam, and has civilians.

At what point does a civilian population bear responsibility for the action of its government? Is it in supporting that government’s action? Is it in turning a blind eye to that government’s action, providing passive support? Is it in accepting one-sided gossip about other people they never met nor heard from? If so, all people across the world are guilty of every war.

China grew its power when Western consumers sent their jobs overseas to save pennies at the store. Western civilians built Sansha as much as Chinese civilians. When Sansha becomes a war zone, will there be such a thing as an “innocent civilian” anywhere in the world? All of us involve civilians in military matters; at least China is upfront about it.

Trade & Tech

Huawei loses attempt to rescue CFO Meng from US clutches despite using 140-year-old law in High Court // The Register

China

CNN Exclusive: WHO panel to recommend ‘deeper’ study of early Covid-19 clues // CNN

South China Sea: Beijing tightens grip on South China Sea with 800,000-square-mile ‘city’ // Times of India

US warns Beijing against using force in South China Sea // Guardian

China Has An 800,000-Square-Mile ‘City’ in the South China Sea // Bloomberg

South China Sea: US steps up challenges to Spratly Islands in freedom of navigation operation // CNN

Taiwan

Four Taiwan ex-intelligence officers charged with spying for China // CNA

Chinese fighters buzz Taiwan’s air defense zone as it appoints new defense minister // CNN

Hong Kong

Why Britain’s anti-immigration politicians are opening the doors to thousands of Hong Kongers // CNN

India

Pangong Lake: India and China complete pull-back of forces // BBC News

Military Faceoff

The US Army is building the most powerful laser weapon in the world // NewScientist

Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group to deploy after extended scrimmage // The Virginian-Pilot

With Ships’ Commissioning Delayed, New Mayport LCS to Test Answer to ‘Class Design Defect’ // Military.com

Loved ones of Nimitz sailors making final preparations for their return // Kitsap Sun

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, January 25, 2021

China thinks they own the American president they helped install. Reportedly, a factory was set up in China to create fake ballots, likely as part of the election fraud network Biden boasted about on TV. But, politicians who steal elections stand against the will of the people by definition. Usually, the public doesn’t find out, which allows those politicians to govern to a limited degree. But, when the public knows a politician willfully stands against the people, that leader can only remain in power with an iron fist.

Iron fists don’t gel with America. That’s something China will eventually figure out the hard way. Biden will figure it out the hard way sooner. China believes chaos in America will work to China’s military advantage. It won’t. When the people turn on Biden, he will turn on China like the forked-tongue politician he is. That will be his attempt to gain unity in the American public against a common enemy. He will pound and shame China harder than Trump would have.

So, in a sense, when the Chinese were set up for disappointment, they not only took the bait; they made it even worse for themselves. They don’t like other countries meddling in their goals, yet they reportedly melded in America’s election. Good old-fashioned honesty and respect would have served them well. Instead, the Chinese gambled on trusting an experienced American politician.

Indo-Pacific

Chinese Survey Ship Caught ‘Running Dark’ Give Clues to Underwater Drone Operations // USNI News

Trade & Tech

Huawei smartphones will lose another Google service soon // GizChina (China)

Trump Halts Huawei Supply in Final China Blow, Reuters Says // Bloomberg

China

Companies are giving up on the United States and betting big on China // CNN

China authorises coast guard to fire on foreign vessels // Aljazeera

PLA troops in South China Sea learn ‘essential’ battlefield English // SCMP

China’s first deep-water oil platform ready to set off for South China Sea // CGTN (China Govt)

Taiwan

U.S. carrier group enters South China Sea amid Taiwan tensions // NBC News

Military Faceoff

US Navy halts deliveries of Freedom-class littoral combat ship // Defense News

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, January 18, 2021

This is a linchpin week. Britain’s new aircraft carrier stands by with courses ready for the South Sea. America has an inauguration scheduled amid more foreseeable chaos, likely greater than Hong Kong. Bad news on China only gets worse—while the Huawei CFO pleas for a life less difficult than her millions of dollars can buy her, she is contrasted to China’s treatment of two arrested Canadians. That doesn’t make China look charitable in the eyes of the five countries that declared the Hong Kong treaty broken late last year.

Diplomats from Taiwan and the US had a diplomat-to-diplomat talk in Switzerland. That’s new. China’s furious. That isn’t new.

A destabilizing United States coupled with swelling Western spite for China make the perfect bait and trap for China to think it should enter a war it couldn’t possibly know it couldn’t possibly win, but should have and would have if someone had only listened.

Trade & Tech

Detained Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou wants bail conditions eased // WA Post

Imploding!
China’s consumers are turning against the homegrown Big Tech giants they once revered // Fortune

Boeing 777 was chartered to fly Meng Wanzhou home, Canada court hears as she seeks to have bail relaxed // SCMP

China

Upbeat Xi Says Time on China’s Side as Turmoil Grips U.S. // Bloomberg

Darned if you do, darned if you don’t if you have anything to do with China
China brings in new law to fight Trump’s sanctions // BBC News

Taiwan

Taiwan representative meets with US diplomat // Taipei Times

CFR rates Taiwan conflict top concern // Taipei Times

Taiwan can fill gap left by Confucius Institutes: AIT // Taipei Times

“We advise people like Pompeo to recognize the historical trends, stop manipulating Taiwan-related issues, stop going against the tides of history, refrain from going further down the wrong and dangerous path, otherwise they will be severely punished by history.”
China warns Trump admin. heading down ‘dangerous path’ with Taiwan outreach // CBS News

Hong Kong

US-China Row: US sanctions pro-China officials // Taipei Times

Korean Peninsula

Kim Jong Un Unveils New Submarine Missile Threat as Trump Exits // MSN News

Military Faceoff

USS Gerald R. Ford Problems: Carrier Can’t Launch Fighters // Popular Mechanics

Lockheed Martin Delivers HELIOS Laser Weapon System to U.S. Navy // Naval News

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, January 11, 2021

Let’s look past the fact that Chinese state media doesn’t know what it means to be “cowardly”. Pompeo rejecting Chinese Communist preferences on US policy with Taiwan is not “cowardly”, at worst it would be “foolish” or “over-confidence”; but “cowardly” would mean letting someone else tell the US what to do. Likewise, China is not “cowardly” either; it is “foolish” and “over-confident”. But, the Chinese don’t know the difference, just how they don’t know this decision on Taiwan is meant to provoke China to commit strategic folly. Let’s look past all that.

What is Trump doing? Biden’s strings held by China were well known before they were secluded by the socialist-minded media in the US. By lacing up ties with Taiwan, Trump forces any future White House attempts to let China dictate policy to be seen for what they are. No president or secretary of state would be politically allowed to back down on Taiwan relations without being exposed as a Chinese manchurian candidate.

In the past, socialist media in the US—which is nearly all media in the US—acted as mouthpieces for Communist Russian propaganda. Now, they act as Communist Chinese tools to install a president owned by China—Biden—all the while publishing bad news about China. From the US perspective, there is a pregnant need to protect the US government from saboteurs—shoes which fit Biden and the primary failure Harris perfectly. Trump taking action that would force Chinese-owned saboteurs to tip their hands only makes sense. But, that still doesn’t explain what is going on.

We must not assume that America is in a peaceful transition from one undisputedly elected president to the next. But, of course China hoped for that. The bipartisan-orchestrated chaos in Washington and state capitals comes as a surprise to the Chinese. If they knew what was coming, they wouldn’t have wasted their time snuggling up to Biden last month. So, because they think this capital chaos was a surprise to them, it was therefore not part of a rouse to make them think America is weak. But, that still doesn’t explain what is going on.

Follow the money. Who makes money off China thinking America is vulnerable? Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics. They don’t need to be part of any conspiracy; only a few stakeholders do—perhaps not even shareholders, perhaps only suppliers of suppliers. However things play out in the dual-fated cities of Washington and Taipei, it will happen that American weapons contractors make the most profit. We are looking at a short and costly skirmish where neither those weapons contractors’ customers are defeated, nor are their profitable enemies. The South Sea is the perfect place. And, China is the perfect dupe to take the bait.

China

The Latest: Scores test positive in China’s Hebei province // AP

China orders military to be ready for war ‘at any second’ as Brit aircraft carrier prepares to sail to South China Sea // The Sun

WHO Covid team blocked from entering China to study origins of coronavirus // CNN

Chinese billionaire Jack Ma suspected missing after calling for economic reform: report // Fox Business

Taiwan

Chinese state media blast latest Pompeo move on Taiwan // AP

Officials welcome Pompeo’s decision to lift restrictions on contact with Taiwan // Taipei Times

US ends limits on Taiwan contact // Taipei Times

Korean Peninsula

South Korea New Aircraft Carrier: Looks Like Royal Navy Carrier // Popular Mechanics

Military Faceoff

UK says aircraft carrier strike group is ready to deploy. China’s already watching // CNN

Marines and Japanese troops train together to capture islands, coastal areas // Stripes

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, January 4, 2021

The Chinese make one huge gamble based on two doubtful conclusions. They think Biden will be inaugurated in January. They think they have deterred the US military in the Pacific. Both notions have been carefully feigned and crafted by the US. The pieces are in place and China moves its queen to attack the baiting pawn. The US wants China to initiate its own military embarrassment.

Over the years, America has stirred unneeded trouble throughout the world. America will pay the consequences for that, but not according to any itinerary set by China. Something similar could be said for Taiwan concerning its own internal systems of justice, both for the Taiwanese and for resident foreigners. Taiwan will pay the consequences, but not according to any itinerary set by China. We all answer to God, and God the Judge will not share space on His bench. If China—or anyone else—wants to take God’s bench, God may send in His bailiff.

China wants the results of innovation—which come from free thinking—which comes from free speech. But, free speech and rights respected are the two things China will not accept. So, China indirectly rejects the good results which only follow good choices. Trying to live without the very shame the continue to create—trying to defeat the countries with military technology they could only steal from those countries—trying to absorb economies with innovation that only thrived without their tyranny—China only knows how to miscalculate. The embarrassment China is about to bring upon itself is nothing any good person would wish for. That the Chinese wish for it says more on this matter than anything else.

Trade & Tech

Regulation of Ant Group is bad for China economy, fintech: analyst // CNBC

China

China’s Wang says US relations at ‘new crossroads’ // Taipei Times

Trump was briefed that China sought to pay non-state actors to attack US forces in Afghanistan // CNN

We Found The Factories Inside China’s Mass Internment Camps // BuzzFeed News

Taiwan

Chinese incursions highest since 1996 // Taipei Times

Bullish China Vows Continued Push for Taiwan ‘Unification’ in 2021 // Newsweek

Taiwan to bar entry to non-resident foreigners on Jan. 1 // Taiwan News

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