Taiwan is on the rise. With chip shortages, stock is booming. You know how graphics cards are astronomically high? A lot of that money is going into Taiwan.
Meanwhile, China found an excuse to order a real estate developer to demolish 39 freshly, new-built “luxury apartments”—something about the building permit being illegal and violated zoning. Even it the trumped up charges were true, a settlement could have save the company loads of cash and profited China’s government in tax revenue. Instead, the company lost big time and de-listed in Hong Kong.
And, that’s why China is the better choice to issue diktat over Taiwan. Though, some 72% of Taiwanese don’t think so. Taiwan’s president is boosting military strength. Taiwanese veteran generals retire to the US start cooperation for veterans. Taiwan as the favored spot came after Nicaragua put in its lot with China and severed relations with Taiwan. That was last month. Marco Rubio thinks it is because Nicaragua’s government is glad China turns a blind eye to human rights violations.
Japan is on the scene in the Pacific. While Japanese athletes will attend the Olympics, Japanese officials will not. China doesn’t want Japan to “politicize” the games. But, consider 2008, the one-hour opening ceremony about nothing but China’s history, with President Xi marching in to a one-world dream at the end. For Beijing, hosting the Olympics is nothing but an opportunity to exhibit a grandiosity complex on a global scale.
By choosing China again, the Olympic committee handed the microphone to the fool. Japanese will go to the Olympics, except that they won’t; that’s the perfect East Asian insult. Japan is being an excellent member of the crowd, cheering on the fool.
But, the Olympics aren’t Japan’s only action. Manufacturing very-much-needed chips with Taiwan, as well as US battle plans for a Taiwan incident are right at the top. Make no mistake: this week, Japan sounded the alarm on China and the Chinese are terrified.
Now, China is being demanded answers about an athlete who went missing after accusing a Communist Party big wig of sexual harassment. The UN wants to know her whereabouts.
It won’t matter how China responds. If the Confucian Communists running China give the UN a satisfactory answer, then CCP would have just given in to international demands. That’s not something that the Chinese’s cocktail of crazy would do under normal circumstances. If China does actually give a satisfactory answer, it will build a mentally-destabilizing resentment deep within China’s leadership.
Either way, China feels backed into a corner.
Then, Taiwan flaunts ever-growing stronger ties with the States. Newly upgraded F-16s were commissioned this week, and both governments keep calling for more relations. That’s not out of the question because Taiwan just opened its office in Lithuania, an office named for “Taiwan” instead of the usual “Taipei”.
So, during all the great friendship happening between Taiwan and the rest of the world, not only is China uninvited; China is given a summons by the UN begging questions of sexual harassment and possibly murder.
China tripped the alarm. Revelations of a US aircraft carrier -shaped target in China’s Taklamakan Desert doesn’t exactly resemble a friendly trick-or-treat visit. Congress is upset, calling this the closest we’ve ever been. Washington tries to use calm rhetoric, saying they don’t foresee problems until 2024—it used to be 2025. But these days, they leave more and more room to avoid being wrong should a scuffle go ballistic in the Pacific.
The tech industry certainly is paying attention. Intel is building at five sites, three in the US, one in Ireland, and one in Israel. At the same time, the US government is questioning chip makers about their supply chains. One of those is TSMC, in Taiwan. Now, Congress wants to spend $52B on subsidies for chip makers inside the US. The message is clear: America is getting ready for a China-initiated disruption in the chip supply chain, the largest part in the world of which goes through Taiwan.
By the look of it, 2025 is the year when China will both be militarily dangerous and, for the chip industry, will no longer matter. While some news outlets cast China’s economy in a positive light, others show deep reasoning to sound the economic alarms. It looks like China is getting into a tighter and tighter pinch, and China’s economic response is the same as its response to political disfavor: marketing.
This week, the EU says it has unanimous support to strengthen relations with Taiwan—specifically because of China’s aggression.
Taiwan was thrust into a position without being asked. In 1971, the United Nations removed the Taipei-seated government known today as “Taiwan” and switched to recognizing the Beijing-based government known as “China”. The Taiwanese were elbowed out of the global forum. Now, the US is working to bring Taiwan back in, but not the same way as in 1971. If the trend continues, China and Taiwan would both have a place in the General Assembly, though no government would admit that outcome quite yet.
At the same time Washington swoons the world and Taiwan toward each other, we hear the old fashioned, non-Trump, typical vibrato from the Biden administration. Biden’s own China ambassador nominees says China can’t be trusted. That kind of diplomacy is rooted in neither Trump’s success-at-any-cost focused strategy nor the moderate go-along-to-get-along mantra. Washington Democrats have read the polls and calculated that hating on China is popular with the electorate. This administration will blame and shame China more than Trump. Expect a WWI style war reparations ending to the coming scuffle, not the rebuilding WWII effort MacArthur did in conquered Japan.
Afghanistan’s failure is a false signal to China, but the Beijing echo chamber sees it as a true sign the US is weak. They don’t get it. America wanted out of Afghanistan. And, Americans won’t want post-Afghanistan disaster to hit Taiwan. China is an election campaign whipping boy, but can’t figure out that because China doesn’t know what an election really is.
According to Chinese and US claims, China has a high-orbit, hypersonic missile that can hit a target within 24 miles. And, that’s why China is the new boss of the world and everyone else should hate America. The end.
But, that’s not the end in the mind of Taiwan or the US Pentagon. This week, Taiwan asked the Pentagon to speed up its delivery of 22 F-16s. They were expected around 2029, but Taiwan claims China could invade by 2025. China may not agree to wait until 2025, especially since the new Communist hypersonic missile has been tested and even written about in the Global Times. All we need is a Global Times article to announce that China is strong enough to invade Taiwan at anytime, then the People’s Liberation Army would be fully prepared to show Confucian Communist love to the whole world.
Biden is creating a special center within CIA for China. Xi Jinping is irate. Biden knows China almost as well as Trump. He met with Chinese officials as Vice President. While Trump played a “good cop” routine on China, Biden is in a better position to be less diplomatic. After all, hating on China does well in the polls, which Biden desperately needs for Democrats.
The US has been secretly training Taiwan special forces for over a year. The revelation comes from a report, officially recognized by the Pentagon. This all comes in the context of the US reaffirming its dedication to Taiwan.
Is the US trying to deter invasion from China by affirming commitment to stopping China? Or, is the US trying to provoke China by affirming commitment under the guise of deterring invasion from China? Which is it? In geopolitical strategy terms, the answer is: yes. In military buildup, deterring is provocation and provocation is deterrence; but wars are started because people want them to start. Deterrence and provocation are merely measures we take to excuse what we really want.
If the US didn’t want a war with China, then shipping jobs to China would never have been allowed in the first place. But, coupon clippers and Washington big hats agreed on the path that brought us here. And, make no mistake about it: we are here. Now, the world only needs one foreseeable yet somehow unforeseen surprise to spin the accelerating wheel into going out of control.
This weekend saw yet another step-up in Chinese aggression—over 90 incursions in three days. While the world asks, “WTF!?” Taiwan rallies international support based on its IC chip industry. Taiwan supplies a good portion of the world’s semiconductors. If China invaded Taiwan, that could pretty much shut down the world’s supply of phones and computers. Coming from Taiwan, it’s almost a PR campaign: “We make your tech work; if China hurts us, then China hurts you too.”
This past weekend was a national holiday for Taiwan and China, celebrating the founding of their common government in history. It is not unusual for military saber rattling to step up about this time of year. That doesn’t mean China isn’t a threat. That means China used its easy excuse to make more threats.
The US responded by clearing its throat, reminding the world of its many military assets in the region. The Philippines wants the Mutual Defense Treaty with the US to have stronger language, clarifying just how much protection the US would bring. China thinks it has standing to object to a treaty for which it is not a party. And, China said Taiwan can expect more next year if the “collusion” between Taiwan and the US doesn’t stop. “Collusion”—that’s how China sees things. Perhaps the word “paranoid” has relevance somewhere.
The US faces economic challenges. We’re about to be done with pandemic inflation—that is inflation wrought to tamp down economic fallout from the pandemic, but arguably a pandemic of inflation in itself. We can’t keep interest rates this low and we can’t keep printing money. Britain has also about had it. The West is due for a change of pace. Enter Taiwan.
China’s incursion of Taiwan’s airspace made Matt Drudge’s top three headlines this weekend. With 93 Chinese military jet incursions in three days, Taiwan says its preparing for war because it must. And, Taiwan rallies allies like Australia with the fact that Taiwan houses one of the largest IC conductor suppliers in the world.
But, consider more than just the Chinese aggression. Consider the Western economic situation.
Chinese aggression and the freedom of Taiwanese sells well to the general public. But, compassion alone does not shape global politics. China is chasing a dream of respect—which isn’t as motivating as Western economies needing a turbocharger. China isn’t just making a miscalculation on its military capacity by winning respect as the world’s bully. China is making the grave error of provoking when the allies of its sworn enemy are hungry. All eyes in the West are about to shift toward a war with China every bit as swift and embarrassing as the Opium Wars.
While China takes center stage, the Supreme Court gears up to review Roe v. Wade and gun owner rights.
Adversity creates alliance. If China’s goal was to unite the world, it is succeeding. Taiwan and Japan are getting cozier than ever, as are Taiwan and the EU. The shift is happening and maps may need to be redrawn.
The logical outcome is the UK returning all of Hong Kong—including the New Territories—to the British Commonwealth, while Taiwan, Japan, and likely a to-be-united Korea become at least commonwealths of a US-Canada reach. This would be valuable because it places liaison states near each other in the Far East. Britain would have a formal government in Hong Kong. The US and Canada would have nearby governments via Taiwan, Japan, and Korea. So, traveling between the US, Britain, and the rest of Asia could all be done through the Taiwan Strait and South Sea.
From a geo-political planning perspective, it would be well-organized. In light of the PDT Asia Mad Scientist Theorem, we could suspect this is being planned. Based on that, failed control systems in North Korea were not only meant to be implemented in China, but also to eventually annex North Korea under Seoul’s government. When later applied via China’s policy, that would trigger events that later subject all of China under a regional cooperation headed by Western governments from both sides of the Atlantic. In other words, North Korea is a test to oppress, fail, and unite under democracy. That test eventually applies to make China fail, then China would be forced to accept formal friendliness with Britain and the US via Taiwan-Japan-Korea states under the US and a Hong Kong province under Britain. The thought is chilling for Chinese Communists.
But, that’s where things are headed. When China objects to a country talking with Taiwan, no one cares anymore. China’s opinion has been reduced to global insignificance—a living hell for respect-obsessed Chinese leaders. Sending more and more military to places without global agreement, then defending itself with insignificant opinions, tightens the noose. China remains its own worst enemy, not only in military defeat, but also inviting its region of the world to be willfully subjected under Western governments.
It is as if the whole thing is planned, and China keeps dancing on cue.
Taiwan continues to shine. Aide sent to Haiti after a devastating earthquake combines growing ties with Lithuania. China objects—and those are bad optics that China’s speech-control can’t control outside its borders.
China has been rewriting religion for years. Hymnals already read love for government rather than love for God. Now, we see more investigations against Hong Kong demonstrators who sought to uphold China’s agreement to democracy. In essence, China is investigating itself, indicating that China is divided against itself.
As a representative office exchange between Taiwan and Lithuania moves forward for this Fall, so do Taiwan’s de facto ties with the rest of the EU. China would rather object to this than be supportive of earthquake victims in Haiti. That is the obvious news narrative to take from what happened this week.
What’s not obvious is Taiwan’s prejudice against foreigners. Taiwan is having trouble building its submarines because of a shortage of engineering talent. Taiwan’s solution is to recruit more foreign talent. However, neither the problem nor the need for recruitment would exist if Taiwan had reciprocal regulations concerning immigration: protection of foreigner’s rights, five years leads to full citizenship, and dropping Taiwan’s ban on dual citizenship. To become a Taiwanese citizen, one must renounce original citizenship. America doesn’t require that. Taiwan does, then complains about losing allies to China. Does Lithuania’s government know how Taiwan treated its immigrants even to this day?
Had Taiwan treated others how they want to be treated, they wouldn’t have the trouble they do. And, Taiwan would not look like such a delicious target for war-thirsty China. The big danger is that US failure in Afghanistan on Sunday will encourage China’s calculus that an invasion of Taiwan is feasible. Combined with Taiwan’s self-inflicted weakness from discrimination against foreigners, China’s invasion question is more of a likelihood.
But, looking at even deeper strategy, we must consider China’s accusation that the US is playing games. If that were so, then failure in Afghanistan was staged by the US to provoke China into viewing the US as weaker than it is, and the US allowing non-reciprocal treatment of its own citizens in Taiwan would be intended to weaken Taiwan for strategic purposes as well.
Regardless of China’s conspiracy theory—which Chinese strategists never imagine to such length—the peaceful path would be for China to not take the invitation for attack and for Taiwan to treat others with respect. Like Jesus wanting to die on the Cross, a power that welcomes disrespect is up to something. But, the devil is none the wiser.
Competence and tolerance! The Taliban has taken over Afghanistan. The former president, hated from both Taliban and a third party in Afghanistan, fled to Tajikistan. At press time, the 36-acre American embassy was near fully-evacuated if not completely. Taliban leaders pledge tolerance, cooperation, and no retribution against allies of the former government. They say they want a relationship with the United States. The American ambassador requested to stay.
Will we see peace and promises kept? That has yet to be seen, but the promise is a first step and will be remembered by God. Muslims claim to worship the God of Abraham. We’ll see the Taliban’s part in that too, and the Times will help everyone remember.
From America’s perspective, look at Biden’s leadership. Such turns of events did not happen under Trump. Biden blames his predecessor. Trump supporters may argue sowing and reaping—that coup begets coup. Biden’s election hinged on anomalous results in precincts with proven rule-breaking. That doubt was never cleared-up in the minds Trump supporters, though they have been smeared. That doesn’t seem like tolerance from the party of tolerance and choice. Nor does pressure—social, legal, or commercial—for vaccines seem like “choice” from the party of choice.
So, in the minds of Trump supporters, who may believe that coup begot coup, the Taliban’s “tolerance and cooperation” in Afghanistan may not pan out. But, we’ll have to wait and see. A promise kept from the Taliban would be welcome.
Did Trump stir the pot with his rhetoric? Maybe. But, the Capitol revolt in lieu of unresolved election irregularities and table pounding from Trump was as bad as it got. In the minds of Biden supporters—according to their votes and what followed—, the situation in Afghanistan is preferable to the Tweets of Trump. Some might reconsider their votes on both sides.
The big issue is leadership and results. Taliban strategy to take over Afghanistan did not consider the response from the former US president as much as it considered the response from the current US president. During the tenure of the current US president, the Taliban won and the US ran. Voters can see things for what they are.
China faces a three-pronged attack in the realm of public opinion. The Olympics converge with COVID; the third is three levelings up in Chinese military aggression.
COVID is seen in the public eye as having mainly originated from China. Even with conspiracy theories surrounding Faucci and Gates, no explanation lets China off the hook. That actually works to argue against the conspiracy theories—if they were true, they would seem to give China an alibi, but they don’t. Every noteworthy theory on the COVID origin points to China.
Now, COVID is crashing the Olympics in Japan.
This makes an additional bad connotation against China and the Olympics. So, with China wanting to host the 2022 Olympics, boycotts against China can be expected even from the Japanese. Then, other countries will feel comfortable joining the anti-China Olympic boycott. Such boycotts from across the globe will achieve two things: fueling popular hatred against China and inflaming China’s emotional-shame reaction. The Chinese government will dig in its heels and the world will want the Chinese dead where they stand.
But, adding to both sentiments are China’s military saber rattling. Surprise military drills within 300 miles of Taiwan, a step up in Chinese vessels observing a US-Australia navy drill, threats to nuke Japan if Japan honors a treaty to defend Taiwan from invasion—these also enrage the non-Chinese public against China. China has the control to stop global anti-China sentiment: stop giving excuses. But, that is a course of action that emotionally-driven shame doesn’t understand. And, no one expects this response better than the masterminds of the West.
Navies from across the globe are holding a slumber party in the East Pacific, namely the South Sea. British and other Europeans join the US, Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, and of course China. Everyone says they want things to be calm and normal. But, the elephant in the slumber party living room is Taiwan. China maintains a policy of planning to take control either by hostile takeover or hostile invasion.
North Koreans aren’t happy with Biden. He says he will use the American-despised method called ‘diplomacy’. But, what diplomacy compares to the first president to meet with the Great Successor—twice? Biden and his team of wonderfuls are thrilled to be rid of divisive riff-raff like the first president to achieve diplomacy talks with North Korea head-to-head. Now that things are improving in America, we can get back to hostility as usual with the Korean peninsula.
If the other members of the East Pacific navy slumber party were serious about peace, they would freeze all Chinese assets until China renounced its Taiwan invasion policy and gave half of its navy to Taiwan as evidence. That won’t happen, but it just goes to prove that no one wants peace in the Pacific—they just want a navy slumber party. And, that’s what they’ve got. And, weapons manufacturers are thrilled.