Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 7, 2020

A date which will live in infamy, 79 years ago. The Chinese warned the Japanese not to attack America for fear of waking a sleeping giant. Now, the Chinese are speeding against their own advice. The move will likely be against Taiwan as a remote and indirect attack on the US. But, the fight between China and Taiwan could have been avoided. The wise can learn from foreseeable history, even when that history has not yet happened.

Taiwan and China are both run by governments with histories of cruelty, corruption, and incompetence. Taiwan is an emerging and aspiring democracy; China resists democracy. Taiwan is cleaning up its cruelty of the past; China increases cruelty today. Chinese Communist tanks killed thousands of unarmed protestors at Tienanmen Square in 1989; that party remains in power through today. Chiang Kai-shek led an even larger massacre in Taiwan in 1947; his party remained in power throughout Western trade and still exists today, though without total control. Now, these two face war. Would either have the money to bloody the other had the West simply demanded justice and order within their borders proportionate to any agreements of trade?

American Congress continues to push a bipartisan and unanimous agenda for Taiwan. The US wants Taiwan to import meat from livestock fed with ractopamine, something Taiwanese want no part of. The US sells weapons to Taiwan to defend against China—which builds its weapons with money made from exports to the US. Has the US been friend or enemy?

If we look at US and Western policy toward China and Taiwan over the last 70 years, we see pursuit of money, with a blind eye toward massacre of their own citizens, xenophobia toward their foreigners, all trailed by escalation toward war. That has improved, but only in the last 4 years and too little, too late.

From 1947 through 1989, Taiwan should have had limited trade, China none. Had that been Western policy, today both might be much more progressed in technology, just, orderly, wealthy, and most of all peaceful.

Taiwanese continue to grow and mature as a democracy. China continues to pursue control and alienate its neighbors. They each have their lessons to learn. But, not all help is helpful. It might not have come to war if the West had sooner insisted that nations learn a few lessons before bestowing wealth which Taiwan and China could have gained on their own with simple justice and order 70 years ago. Instead, we’re nearing the end of a path that started with greed and finishes in war.

Indo-Pacific

Japan, France, U.S. plan their first joint military drills in May: media // Yahoo News

Trade & Tech

China-US trade war: Beijing escalates tit-for-tat with Washington // BBC News

China Oil Giant CNOOC Targeted by U.S. After Years of South China Sea Tension // Bloomberg

Huawei hits 5G critical mass with Germany’s approval // Asia Times

Canadian Mountie at centre of Meng Wanzhou extradition storm was elite officer in Hong Kong // SCMP

China

Plans of UK, India to deploy aircraft carriers against China of ‘no military significance’ // Global Times (China Govt)

China’s ‘pure propaganda’ move to rewrite coronavirus history // Yahoo News

CNN exclusive: Vast trove of leaked documents shows China underreported Covid-19 numbers… // Twitter @TheLeadCNN

Taiwan

Taiwanese shut out of UNESCO events // Taipei Times

US, Taiwan join forces to launch education project // Taipei Times

Pork importers say no to ractopamine // Taipei Times

Hong Kong

Agnes Chow, known in Japan as ‘goddess of democracy,’ faces prison in Hong Kong // WA Post

Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam is stockpiling cash because of US sanctions // CNN

India

How Beijing Has Adopted Its South China Sea Strategy In The Himalayas Resulting In A Massive India-China Clash // EurAsian Times

Military Faceoff

Run Silent, Run Deep: PM Meets the Deadly Seawolf Submarine // Popular Mechanics

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Faux Report

BREAKING: War With Iran Imminent; President Trump Reinstates Military Draft

WASHINGTON, D.C. –

Earlier this week, President Trump illegally ordered the assassination of a top military general in Iran, Qasem Soleimani, prompting Iran to promise a swift revenge. In the imminent face of war with a powerful military in Iran, President Trump reinstated the United States draft, last used during the Vietnam Conflict.

“There are a lot of incredible, selfless American men and women who have been serving in the armed forces, some for many years, some still in basic training,” stated President Trump early this morning from the Oval Office. “These people, they need help. They need a lot of really, really big help, and we need to make sure they receive it. Reinstating the United States draft process is the easiest, and most logical answer.”

The draft process, which chooses young, American men at random to enlist in the armed forces, is something most people thought they would never see used again, but military officials agree with Trump that it’s the most efficient way to quickly build our military forces in the face of danger.

“When you anger another country by committing a blatant and completely illegal war crime, such as the case with our President’s attack in Iran, things heat up quickly, and action must be taken,” said Secretary of Defense Mark Esper. “We are ready to have our young men suit up and join our military forces, and the reinstatement of the draft will help immensely.”

“It’s about time these lazy millennials do something with their life other than eat Tide pods and watch YouTube videos,” said MAGA-hat wearing, Trump voter Carl Richards, 42, from Atlanta. “They could use the direction, the discipline, and should want to fight to protect our country from foreign invasion. It’s what I would have done when I was their age. Not doing it now, of course. Got myself some really tender soles, and I can’t walk for too long before my feet really start to hurt. If it wasn’t for that, I’d be out there signing up to shoot me some towelheads or whoever it is this time.”

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Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 18, 2017

All signs indicate a gear-up for war. The US is full on-tilt, not only in military prep, but also in blaming China. The US and China face each other with North Korea in the middle. There is nothing China or Russia will do to stop Washington from gobbling North Korea whole, but a reaction is to be expected. A war just east of China's border should rouse China's military, if for no other reason than that North Korea might go rogue and invade China as a means of escape.

The US also has a precarious position. China trades with and supplies North Korea; of particular interest is oil. The US recently reached an oil deal with China to pay back China on old debts with oil from Alaska. Recent comments from Washington, including a statement at the UN, include that China must do its part to stop feeding North Korea, otherwise the US will take its own means of handling the part it was hoped China would handle. That's no threat, but it is an expected warning, as it is expected that Beijing would respond defensively.

So, we are headed to war and China won't sit this one out. While it is unlikely the Chinese would help North Korea defend a war with the US, the more likely option is an invasion of Taiwan. If China invades Taiwan, it would likely be seen as mere retaliation from the West, but would make strategic sense from China's view—at least if China assumes that invading Taiwan could be a success. With the US busy and expanding pro-democracy South Korea's borders northward, China would naturally want more territory. China might also thing that the US is too occupied with Korea to worry about Taiwan. And, the recent step-up in regular rhetoric over bipartisan support in Congress to defend Taiwan is China's perfect excuse to justify a strike of its own.

We'll have to wait and see how things play out. But, don't think that there isn't plenty of China-blaming in the press, including speculation that China would actually back North Korea militarily or even the smear by making China look inhumane for its implementation of the death sentence. Human Rights or not, there are press forces in the West always trying to smear China. But, just as much rhetoric comes from all sides, including Russia.

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Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 2, 2017

Things are stepping-up in Korea. The US is gearing up for a "military option". The question is how China will respond. China's approach with Taiwan is a contrast of priorities or a strong indication about China's approach with North Korea. If China won't take harsh action to stop a nuclear North Korea, then logically China should not be painted as a "hostile villain" over TAO (Taiwan Affairs Office) statements concerning Taiwan.

China has a reputation to defend, which includes normal political posturing. If China were to ignore a nuclear North Korea, but attack Taiwan during a time of no military conflict, that would seem to the world as "inconsistent". The Taiwan situation hit many headlines this week.

Taiwan's new Premier William Lai commented this week about "status quo". He shared his personal opinion at an early stage in his tenure, more or less observing that China and Taiwan behave as if they are already sovereign and that the main two political parties in Taiwan hold a policy that Taiwan has a government with a constitution that considers itself sovereign. Lai's comments focused on observing "status quo", added that, personally, he is "pro-independence", and that he will remain in-step with Taiwan's President Tsai, regardless of his own career and personal views.

Lai admitted that he should have kept his personal views to himself, but indicated that such transparency of his personal view is part of an ingenuous disclosure when legislators are inquiring about him as a recently approved for his public office. Needless to say, China was not pleased. Beijing responded with some simple public statements.

How serious China is about any intent to start a war to reclaim Taiwan? The first sober question would be about preparatory military exit strategy. Arguably, the US has more at stake in Taiwan than in North Korea.

Taiwan has more than a few F-16s, Apache helicopters, and other military and naval assets—all supplied by the US. If China's government were to exert power over Taiwan, that would change status quo—something Premier William Lai says would require a vote in Taiwan. But, the question few people ask is what to do with all those F-16s, helicopters, and naval assets.

If China truly intended to "go to the mattresses" to change status quo with Taiwan, at the very top of its statement would be a plan to first send all of that military equipment back to the United States, to gut technology from all military installations in Taiwan, and to provide to move nearly all adult men in Taiwan to any country other than China. Adult men in Taiwan serve "compulsory" military time in a military that used US military tech. That means nearly half of Taiwan's entire adult population would be a security threat if governed by a regime seated in Beijing.

Beijing has presented no such "exit strategy" for US military assets in Taiwan. That does not mean Beijing is not deserving of "respect"—the foremost question on many minds in Beijing. It simply raises questions about how much the "Taiwan question" has been thought through.

Even with all that is happening in North Korea, more security eyes should be turned to how China will deal with Taiwan once North Korea stops making headlines—or more importantly, when North Korea makes far more headlines than it already does.

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