Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 15, 2021

Taiwan is a peaceful island of peaceful people. The Taiwanese calm demeanor often plays tricks on the minds of Americans and Chinese. Every day, Taiwanese put up with enormous nonsense and harassment, yet manage to carry on with an authentic smile. They don’t just putt-putt forward, they charge forward with energy, even in the face of disquieting conflict. Their solution to conflict is to “ignore” it away; and that is the Taiwanese daily story.

And, that should put fear into any enemy with half a brain.

When roused to anger, the Taiwanese are more fierce and more dangerous than Americans. That is admittedly a large claim, but the world is about to witness. Their strength and willingness to fight can be seen in schoolyard spats. The calm, carry-on manners are enforced only by a monstrous willpower. Once peace is rejected by an opponent, that same great monster that held near impossible peace rages to war. That someone has the stamina to maintain peace so long should terrify anyone with half a brain.

But, it doesn’t even phase the Chinese. There’s your investment clue.

Nonetheless, Silicon Valley continues to seek investment in China, despite unified opposition from the two most controversial Republican and Democratic presidents ever, Trump then Biden. Even the US Chamber of Commerce lobbies for American companies to invest more money into China, according to Wall Street Journal.

It seems as the US brings manufacturing back home, China offers more candy to hypnotize the children of the Valley. Without any parents around it seems like it would work, were it not for Uncle Sam.

Encore of Revival: America, November 15, 2021

America’s divide is staggering. Neither Trump nor Biden divided America; our difference in values did. We were divided since the Pilgrims arrived and signed a Compact where Christians and non-Christians would work together. But, both overreached and tried to boss the other—both tried to force their values on everyone—whether classic Bible-wielding Christians, those who believe in no god, those who believe in every god, those who believe in one kind of marriage, and those who believe in any kind of marriage.

For many years, we worked in peace to make it through our differences together. But having grown up, we now see our true colors. Many of us grew up in families and circles that go against our true values. People switch loyalties. After the last two presidential elections, fewer people think of themselves as independents, and many Democrats and Republicans hopped to the other side of the fence.

We can’t blame leaders for our division. Instead, we must look to lines of thought that promote peace. America does not need to help Taiwan as much as America must absolutely learn from Taiwan. That island nearly half the size of Lake Michigan with a population larger than Florida hosts the most peaceful and yet resilient people in the world. COVID theatrics—either way—never worked on the Taiwanese, who calmly stood together through it all. Now, safety restrictions are lifting and life is nearly back to normal without a problem.

As America unites against the self-made enemy known as China, Taiwan is plopped in the limelight. While some Americans will see another poster boy on whom to lavish messiah complex -driven “compassion”, some may see the peaceful people whom America can still become like.

Trump

Jan. 6 probe threatens fragile Trump-Pence peace // The Hill

Trump White House records can be given to Capitol attack panel, judge rules // Guardian

Washington as Usual

‘It’s gotta stop for the sake of America’: Biden chastises GOP for targeting Republicans who supported infrastructure bill // CNN

Violence, Radicalism & Terrorism

‘Unfortunately, the correct answer here may very well be that it is not terribly unlikely.’
Would America survive a civil war? // UnHerd

GOP silence deafening as post-Jan. 6 threats of violence escalate // The Hill

Markets, Economy & GDP

Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham warns Tesla stock is in a bubble, rings the inflation alarm, and predicts an epic market crash // Markets Insider

Elon Musk sold about $6.9 billion in Tesla stock this week // CNBC

Pandemic

Oklahoma Guard goes rogue, rejects COVID vaccine mandate after sudden change of command // Air Force Times

Federal appeals court halts Biden administration’s vaccine requirement, delivering policy a major blow // MSN News

NATO Focus

Ukraine says Russia has nearly 100,000 troops near its border // Yahoo News

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 8, 2021

China tripped the alarm. Revelations of a US aircraft carrier -shaped target in China’s Taklamakan Desert doesn’t exactly resemble a friendly trick-or-treat visit. Congress is upset, calling this the closest we’ve ever been. Washington tries to use calm rhetoric, saying they don’t foresee problems until 2024—it used to be 2025. But these days, they leave more and more room to avoid being wrong should a scuffle go ballistic in the Pacific.

The tech industry certainly is paying attention. Intel is building at five sites, three in the US, one in Ireland, and one in Israel. At the same time, the US government is questioning chip makers about their supply chains. One of those is TSMC, in Taiwan. Now, Congress wants to spend $52B on subsidies for chip makers inside the US. The message is clear: America is getting ready for a China-initiated disruption in the chip supply chain, the largest part in the world of which goes through Taiwan.

By the look of it, 2025 is the year when China will both be militarily dangerous and, for the chip industry, will no longer matter. While some news outlets cast China’s economy in a positive light, others show deep reasoning to sound the economic alarms. It looks like China is getting into a tighter and tighter pinch, and China’s economic response is the same as its response to political disfavor: marketing.

This week, the EU says it has unanimous support to strengthen relations with Taiwan—specifically because of China’s aggression.

Trade & Tech

TSMC Withholds Customer-Specific Data in Answering U.S. Request // Yahoo Finance

How Intel plans to catch Samsung and TSMC and regain its dominance in the chip market // CNBC

China

Is It Really a Bear Market for China Stocks? // Morningstar

Xi Is Running Out of Time // Foreign Affairs

China Builds Missile Targets Shaped Like U.S. Aircraft Carrier, Destroyers in Remote Desert // USNI News

China triggers growing fears for US military // The Hill

China trade: export growth above expectations in October // SCMP

China urges families to store basic supplies in case of emergency // BBC News

Locking Guests Inside Disneyland Shows China’s Extreme Covid Tactics // MSN News

Taiwan

‘EU agrees on cooperation with Taipei’ // Taipei Times

Bill seeks US-Taiwan disease center // Taipei Times

Japan

After 76 Years, Japan Has Aircraft Carriers Again // Yahoo Finance

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 1, 2021

China has been told, then told again. This week, China was told again again again. The EU gave a blistering rebuke to China’s unsolicited three cents about what other governments call their offices. Specifically, Taiwan is labeling it’s representative office in Lithuania as “Taiwan”. China recalled and expelled diplomats with Lithuania in wake of the matter.

Moves like this show the disturbing psychology guiding the Chinese. Reducing communication does not improve China’s position; it diminishes China’s position. So, why would China do that for anything other than histrionic reasons? The recall of its office in Lithuania resembles Napoleon storming out of his own cabinet meeting just before he fell from power. Moreover, analysis such as this does not cause the Chinese mind to reconsider; the Chinese see the warnings as conjured propaganda without substance.

As if the EU’s response over Lithuania wasn’t enough, US Secretary of State Blinken told Chinese Foreign Minister Wang where the bear crapped in the buckwheat. China’s been aggressive; that’s bad. Single-sided—AKA “unilateral”—action to alter the status quo with Taiwan—AKA “invasion”—is unacceptable. The US will intervene. This may be news to the ears of those in China’s echo chamber where selective listening is the norm. Yes, China may be unaware that the US plans to respond if China invaded Taiwan, even after all that has happened. China’s frame of mind could come partly from three decades of countries letting China push them around. But all of a sudden, a fresh wind blew through the G-20.

Taiwan

Blinken warns China against unilateral action regarding Taiwan // Yahoo Finance

Blinken and Wang warn against fuelling Taiwan tensions // Yahoo News

Blinken raised concerns about Taiwan with China // Yahoo News

EU slams China’s moves in Taiwan office dispute // Taipei Times

Ties with US ‘rock solid’: AIT head // Taipei Times

Taiwan’s TSMC calls for innovation of semiconductor sector // Taiwan News

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 25, 2021

Taiwan was thrust into a position without being asked. In 1971, the United Nations removed the Taipei-seated government known today as “Taiwan” and switched to recognizing the Beijing-based government known as “China”. The Taiwanese were elbowed out of the global forum. Now, the US is working to bring Taiwan back in, but not the same way as in 1971. If the trend continues, China and Taiwan would both have a place in the General Assembly, though no government would admit that outcome quite yet.

At the same time Washington swoons the world and Taiwan toward each other, we hear the old fashioned, non-Trump, typical vibrato from the Biden administration. Biden’s own China ambassador nominees says China can’t be trusted. That kind of diplomacy is rooted in neither Trump’s success-at-any-cost focused strategy nor the moderate go-along-to-get-along mantra. Washington Democrats have read the polls and calculated that hating on China is popular with the electorate. This administration will blame and shame China more than Trump. Expect a WWI style war reparations ending to the coming scuffle, not the rebuilding WWII effort MacArthur did in conquered Japan.

Afghanistan’s failure is a false signal to China, but the Beijing echo chamber sees it as a true sign the US is weak. They don’t get it. America wanted out of Afghanistan. And, Americans won’t want post-Afghanistan disaster to hit Taiwan. China is an election campaign whipping boy, but can’t figure out that because China doesn’t know what an election really is.

Indo-Pacific

Afghanistan hurtling toward collapse, Sweden and Pakistan say // CNN

Taiwan

Taiwan, US discuss UN participation // Taipei Times

China warns against ‘wrong signals’ as Biden suggests US would defend Taiwan // Guardian

Biden’s pick for China ambassador says ‘we cannot trust the Chinese’ on Taiwan // Guardian

Military Faceoff

Flashback 10 years…
China Freaked Out: The Navy Surfaced 3 Missile Submarines Simultaneously // 19FortyFive

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 18, 2021

According to Chinese and US claims, China has a high-orbit, hypersonic missile that can hit a target within 24 miles. And, that’s why China is the new boss of the world and everyone else should hate America. The end.

But, that’s not the end in the mind of Taiwan or the US Pentagon. This week, Taiwan asked the Pentagon to speed up its delivery of 22 F-16s. They were expected around 2029, but Taiwan claims China could invade by 2025. China may not agree to wait until 2025, especially since the new Communist hypersonic missile has been tested and even written about in the Global Times. All we need is a Global Times article to announce that China is strong enough to invade Taiwan at anytime, then the People’s Liberation Army would be fully prepared to show Confucian Communist love to the whole world.

Trade & Tech

TSMC and Sony considering joint chip factory // iTnews

China

Beijing mocks America saying their new 21,000mph nuclear-capable missile is ‘a new blow to the US’ // Daily Mail

China Reports Progress on U.S. Disputes Before Biden-Xi Summit // Bloomberg

Taiwan

EU committee planning Taiwan visit: sources // Taipei Times

Taiwan asks US to speed up F-16 delivery: CNN // Taipei Times

Taiwan bookstore chain Eslite recalibrates business strategy to ‘go small’ // Taiwan News

Taiwan should reduce its trade dependency on China: ROCCOC // Focus Taiwan

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 11, 2021

Biden is creating a special center within CIA for China. Xi Jinping is irate. Biden knows China almost as well as Trump. He met with Chinese officials as Vice President. While Trump played a “good cop” routine on China, Biden is in a better position to be less diplomatic. After all, hating on China does well in the polls, which Biden desperately needs for Democrats.

The US has been secretly training Taiwan special forces for over a year. The revelation comes from a report, officially recognized by the Pentagon. This all comes in the context of the US reaffirming its dedication to Taiwan.

Is the US trying to deter invasion from China by affirming commitment to stopping China? Or, is the US trying to provoke China by affirming commitment under the guise of deterring invasion from China? Which is it? In geopolitical strategy terms, the answer is: yes. In military buildup, deterring is provocation and provocation is deterrence; but wars are started because people want them to start. Deterrence and provocation are merely measures we take to excuse what we really want.

If the US didn’t want a war with China, then shipping jobs to China would never have been allowed in the first place. But, coupon clippers and Washington big hats agreed on the path that brought us here. And, make no mistake about it: we are here. Now, the world only needs one foreseeable yet somehow unforeseen surprise to spin the accelerating wheel into going out of control.

Trade & Tech

Sony to join TSMC on new $7bn chip plant in Japan // Nikkei Asian Review

Taiwan’s TSMC mulling response to US supply chain disclosure request // Taiwan News

China

From iPhones to milk, China’s energy crisis ripples across global economy // SCMP

China ‘Decodes’ F-22, F-35 Puzzle; Flaunts ‘World’s First Anti-Stealth Radar’ That Can Detect Stealthiest Of Aircraft // EurAsian Times

British aircraft carrier ignores Chinese warnings for second time // UK Defense Journal

Taiwan

China-Taiwan tensions: Xi Jinping says ‘reunification’ must be fulfilled // BBC News

Secret group of US military trainers has been in Taiwan for at least a year // Guardian

Taiwan, Canada announce joint statement on education // Taiwan News

China could mount full-scale invasion by 2025, Taiwan defence minister says // Guardian

Japan

Japan’s de facto aircraft carrier since WWII raises security concern in region // Global Times (China Govt)

Thailand

Thai restaurant rides wave of success as customers flock to dine in floodwaters // Guardian

Military Faceoff

The Navy’s Last Conventionally Powered Aircraft Carriers Have Been Sold For Literal Pennies // The Drive

Biden administration reveals number of nuclear weapons in US stockpile // CNN

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 4, 2021

This weekend saw yet another step-up in Chinese aggression—over 90 incursions in three days. While the world asks, “WTF!?” Taiwan rallies international support based on its IC chip industry. Taiwan supplies a good portion of the world’s semiconductors. If China invaded Taiwan, that could pretty much shut down the world’s supply of phones and computers. Coming from Taiwan, it’s almost a PR campaign: “We make your tech work; if China hurts us, then China hurts you too.”

This past weekend was a national holiday for Taiwan and China, celebrating the founding of their common government in history. It is not unusual for military saber rattling to step up about this time of year. That doesn’t mean China isn’t a threat. That means China used its easy excuse to make more threats.

The US responded by clearing its throat, reminding the world of its many military assets in the region. The Philippines wants the Mutual Defense Treaty with the US to have stronger language, clarifying just how much protection the US would bring. China thinks it has standing to object to a treaty for which it is not a party. And, China said Taiwan can expect more next year if the “collusion” between Taiwan and the US doesn’t stop. “Collusion”—that’s how China sees things. Perhaps the word “paranoid” has relevance somewhere.

Indo-Pacific

NZ opposition leader says US and UK ‘left door open’ for China in Indo-Pacific // Guardian

China

China, US in talks on military relations amid strained ties // Yahoo Canada

Taiwan

China air force sends 77 warplanes into Taiwan defense zone over two days, Taipei says // CNN

Prepare for War!
Taiwanese Foreign Minister warns his country is preparing for war with China, asks Australia for help // ABC News Australia

US ‘concerned’ by China’s incursion into Taiwan’s defence zone // BBC News

Military considering Taitung County for runway // Taipei Times

British warship passes through Taiwan Strait // Taipei Times

China unveils new drones, fighter jets with eye on Taipei // Taipei Times

Taiwan Says Peace Crucial to Chip Supply as China Pressure Grows // Yahoo Finance

US calls on Beijing to halt provocation of Taiwan // Taipei Times

US can ‘tamp down’ attack on Taiwan: official // Taipei Times

U.S. condemns ‘provocative’ Chinese activities near Taiwan // Yahoo UK

Hong Kong

Hong Kong man on national security trial over protest chants // Yahoo News

Philippines

Philippines defence chief says was urged by China to drop review of U.S. pact // Yahoo News

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, September 27, 2021

The Huawei heir apparent and CFO, Meng, walked. She confessed, then flew home. China immediately released the two Canadians both named Michael, which China had previously said were not detained in any connection to Meng; but they were both released in connection to Meng. The world saw what China did because China did something once again.

Meng gets “deferred prosecution”, meaning she’s guilty, but as a foreigner she goes home because of some arrangement such as her confession. Her charges will be dropped in December 2022, only on condition that she does not contest points connected to her case as to fact. That gives the US 14 months to use her confession as grounds for deciding which countries and big companies to sanction, et cetera.

If we use China’s promise about Hong Kong as any example, we can expect the heat to turn up so high that Meng eventually breaks her promise and charges resume. With what action from the US could come, China may expect her to break her promise and accuse the US, more or less, of lying. If she doesn’t do what China expects, she may wish she was still enjoying her prison-mansions in Canada. Either way, her goose is cooked. The world is learning even more about China. And, the West marches on with its goals.

This week, five more countries urged the UN to recognize Taiwan. That makes twelve out of fifteen formal allies.

Indo-Pacific

As The UK ‘Revives’ Its Diego Garcia Naval Base, Is London Set To Join QUAD Nations To Challenge China? // EurAsian Times

Trade & Tech

Meng Wanzhou: The PowerPoint that sparked an international row // Yahoo News

China sets Canadians free after Meng settles with US // Taipei Times

China

Musk praises China, says Tesla will expand investments in country // CNBC

Taiwan

Five more allies voice support at UN // Taipei Times

Taiwan applies to Pacific trade deal // Taipei Times

Military Faceoff

US Air Force Confirms It’s Bringing World’s First Stealth Fighter Aircraft ‘Back In Action’ // EurAsian Times

F-22 Raptor Of Warships: Why US’ Fully Stealth, Revolutionary Zumwalt Program Finds Itself In Troubled Waters? // EurAsian Times

Uh-Oh: F-35 Jets and Their Carriers Can’t Talk to Each Other // National Interest

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, September 20, 2021

China steps up expansion via Hong Kong elections. Seven editors are banned from Wikipedia on concerns of not acting in good faith and with relation to China. The US sails through the Taiwan Straight again, this time a destroyer. Taiwan wants more backup runways for fighter jets. Escalations only continue and no side shows any sign of backing down.

China

Hong Kong kicks off first ‘patriots only’ election // Yahoo News

Wikipedia fights ‘infiltration’ by Chinese group // Taipei Times

Former Joint Chiefs chair: Nothing unusual about Milley’s contacts with China // Politico

Taiwan

More emergency military runways, legislator urges // Taipei Times

US Navy destroyer sails through Strait // Taipei Times

US legislators back UN for Taiwan // Taipei Times

Hong Kong

Hong Kong elite select new ‘patriots only’ committee // Taipei Times

Hong Kong few select powerful new ‘patriots only’ committee // Aljazeera

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, September 6, 2021

Taiwan! Taiwan! Taiwan! Europe can say it enough. In fact, Europe talks about Taiwan almost as much as China does. Taiwan doesn’t need formal diplomatic relations to live rent free in the minds of global leaders around the globe—especially living rent free in the minds of Beijing leaders—especially in the mind of Xi Jinping. Don’t forget Japan.

Europe doesn’t want to be bullied by China. Every response from China is interpreted by the EU as a reason to disagree with almost anything China says. China is so hated, we are almost to the point where China could use reverse psychology to get what it wants. If China disagreed with everything it wants, the world might agree with everything China wants, just to spite China’s rhetoric. But, we are only 98% of the way there. The world doesn’t hate China quite that much. There’s still room for more.

But, look closely at what is happening in Europe. Lithuania deepens ties with Taiwan while the EU pounds the table. It is almost as if Europe is testing China by watching what happens with Lithuania. If that were so, none of the European rhetoric about Lithuania or China is real, yet. They’re just saying things to gauge China’s reaction. In other words, Europe is experimenting with China as the lab rat. That’s got to make shame-phobic leaders in Beijing feel great about themselves.

Indo-Pacific

If Taiwan is lost, US loses, too: Craft // Taipei Times

China

EU cannot remain silent on China, top official says // Taipei Times

New Chinese maritime law could be ‘time bomb’ // Taipei Times

Taiwan

EU legislators back Taiwan office // Taipei Times

EU lawmaker urges invite to ‘Taiwan leader’ // Taipei Times

EU group advances Taiwan proposal // Taipei Times

Japan

Japan set to increase military spending // Taipei Times

Military Faceoff

Air force eyes assorted US missiles // Taipei Times

The U.S. ground war in Afghanistan is over. Now it’s the Navy’s turn. // Politico

A New Era of Aircraft Carrier Fighter Jet Attack Is Here. // National Interest

Latest Pictures Of China’s Third Aircraft Carrier Display Its ‘Staggering Success’ To Challenge US Naval Might // EurAsian Times

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 30, 2021

Adversity creates alliance. If China’s goal was to unite the world, it is succeeding. Taiwan and Japan are getting cozier than ever, as are Taiwan and the EU. The shift is happening and maps may need to be redrawn.

The logical outcome is the UK returning all of Hong Kong—including the New Territories—to the British Commonwealth, while Taiwan, Japan, and likely a to-be-united Korea become at least commonwealths of a US-Canada reach. This would be valuable because it places liaison states near each other in the Far East. Britain would have a formal government in Hong Kong. The US and Canada would have nearby governments via Taiwan, Japan, and Korea. So, traveling between the US, Britain, and the rest of Asia could all be done through the Taiwan Strait and South Sea.

From a geo-political planning perspective, it would be well-organized. In light of the PDT Asia Mad Scientist Theorem, we could suspect this is being planned. Based on that, failed control systems in North Korea were not only meant to be implemented in China, but also to eventually annex North Korea under Seoul’s government. When later applied via China’s policy, that would trigger events that later subject all of China under a regional cooperation headed by Western governments from both sides of the Atlantic. In other words, North Korea is a test to oppress, fail, and unite under democracy. That test eventually applies to make China fail, then China would be forced to accept formal friendliness with Britain and the US via Taiwan-Japan-Korea states under the US and a Hong Kong province under Britain. The thought is chilling for Chinese Communists.

But, that’s where things are headed. When China objects to a country talking with Taiwan, no one cares anymore. China’s opinion has been reduced to global insignificance—a living hell for respect-obsessed Chinese leaders. Sending more and more military to places without global agreement, then defending itself with insignificant opinions, tightens the noose. China remains its own worst enemy, not only in military defeat, but also inviting its region of the world to be willfully subjected under Western governments.

It is as if the whole thing is planned, and China keeps dancing on cue.

Taiwan

More than half of US support defense of Taiwan: survey // Taipei Times

Taiwan, Japan ruling parties talk trade // Taipei Times

EU committee to discuss Taiwan ties this week // Taipei Times

Military Faceoff

US warship, cutter transit Taiwan Strait // Taipei Times

Analysis: In the turbulent South China Sea, the US Navy bets on a troubled warship // CNN

USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) Commences Planned Incremental Availability – Naval News // Naval News

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 23, 2021

The White House’s distinction between Far Eastern allies and Afghanistan is consistent with the US strategic pivot during the Obama years: away from the Middle East, toward China. While China interprets the befuddled Afghanistan withdrawal as an indication that the US will not defend Far Eastern allies, the US interpretation implies a deeper concentration of military power. Each government’s policy indicates a deep belief in its own respective statement.

Taiwan’s president took the jab from Taiwan’s own, homegrown COVID vaccine. So, while Taiwan can claim one vaccine, Trump can claim all others. This further asserts Taiwan’s capability of standing on its own. Hong Kongers face the music, no matter the injustice. The world is watching. China’s response that Afghanistan is an indication that Taiwan should distrust the US serves mainly as a signal to Western readers that China indeed is a bully. Again, China doesn’t think they think so.

China

China Sends NUCLEAR BOMBERS to Taiwan // YouTube @ China Uncensored

Chinese military satellite damaged by Soviet rocket is the ‘first major orbital collision in a decade’ // Yahoo UK Finance

Taiwan

COVID-19: Tsai Ing-wen to get locally made vaccine today // Taipei Times

US’ Taiwan policy unchanged: official // Taipei Times

Afghan abandonment a lesson for Taiwan’s DPP: Global Times editorial // Global Times (China Govt)

Hong Kong

Hong Kongers plead guilty to ‘national security’ charges // Taipei Times

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia August 16, 2021

Taiwan continues to shine. Aide sent to Haiti after a devastating earthquake combines growing ties with Lithuania. China objects—and those are bad optics that China’s speech-control can’t control outside its borders.

China has been rewriting religion for years. Hymnals already read love for government rather than love for God. Now, we see more investigations against Hong Kong demonstrators who sought to uphold China’s agreement to democracy. In essence, China is investigating itself, indicating that China is divided against itself.

As a representative office exchange between Taiwan and Lithuania moves forward for this Fall, so do Taiwan’s de facto ties with the rest of the EU. China would rather object to this than be supportive of earthquake victims in Haiti. That is the obvious news narrative to take from what happened this week.

What’s not obvious is Taiwan’s prejudice against foreigners. Taiwan is having trouble building its submarines because of a shortage of engineering talent. Taiwan’s solution is to recruit more foreign talent. However, neither the problem nor the need for recruitment would exist if Taiwan had reciprocal regulations concerning immigration: protection of foreigner’s rights, five years leads to full citizenship, and dropping Taiwan’s ban on dual citizenship. To become a Taiwanese citizen, one must renounce original citizenship. America doesn’t require that. Taiwan does, then complains about losing allies to China. Does Lithuania’s government know how Taiwan treated its immigrants even to this day?

Had Taiwan treated others how they want to be treated, they wouldn’t have the trouble they do. And, Taiwan would not look like such a delicious target for war-thirsty China. The big danger is that US failure in Afghanistan on Sunday will encourage China’s calculus that an invasion of Taiwan is feasible. Combined with Taiwan’s self-inflicted weakness from discrimination against foreigners, China’s invasion question is more of a likelihood.

But, looking at even deeper strategy, we must consider China’s accusation that the US is playing games. If that were so, then failure in Afghanistan was staged by the US to provoke China into viewing the US as weaker than it is, and the US allowing non-reciprocal treatment of its own citizens in Taiwan would be intended to weaken Taiwan for strategic purposes as well.

Regardless of China’s conspiracy theory—which Chinese strategists never imagine to such length—the peaceful path would be for China to not take the invitation for attack and for Taiwan to treat others with respect. Like Jesus wanting to die on the Cross, a power that welcomes disrespect is up to something. But, the devil is none the wiser.