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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 14, 2019

You can't bring a pot to boil forever. While the conventional narrative for Hong Kong warns, "Retribution is coming," a better understanding would be, "The Chinese are coming if Hong Kong doesn't level up." The protests must either "level up" or otherwise change, or else the PLA will indeed march and smash.

While the situation in Hong Kong is deteriorating into a cultural war—a defense against an invasive culture of Sinicization—talks between the US and China took a similar cultural detour for the worst. China doesn't want so-called "interference" with kidnapping 1.5 million Muslims in Xinjiang, in Beijing's view "internal matters". By that definition, "internal matters" violate international Human Rights laws.

Trump's words, that all is well in Hong Kong, elude Hong Kongers and Chinese as much as the American media. On the surface Trump appeared to praise the doctored press reports coming out of Hong Kong. He also praised Supreme Justice Kavanaugh's accuser, Christine Ford, days before mocking her. Not one main news agency reported Hong Kong's October 4 de facto declaration of independence with plans for rebellion elections. Praising evidentially censored reports from Hong Kong surmounts to little.

Still, Trump knows the ramifications of his words. By playing along with propaganda China would normally get resistance from, and by staying hands-off, Trump was indirectly telling Beijing that he knows Hong Kong is worse than reported while also letting Hong Kong learn the hard lesson that independence starts with expecting no help from the outside. Over the weekend we saw just that, including smaller flash-protests and perching the Hong Kong "Goddess of Democracy" atop Lion Rock in Kowloon. "Careless Carrie" Lam even cancelled a meeting with Senator Ted Cruz—after his 10+ hour overnight flight landed.

Trump's words could lead to the very "level-up" game-changer the Hong Kong protesters must make in order to survive. One should guess that Trump doesn't want Hong Kong to "just be okay", but to earn whatever independence they get on their own. It feels like rejection at first, but being abandoned to earn one's own victory—and the spoils with it—is the greater gift of a friend. Trump never said he would squash Hong Kongers' call for independence; he simply refused to steal their thunder.

The Chinese probably won't pick up on Trump's subtlety because Confucianism—especially Communist Confucianism—doesn't believe anything can happen without outside "help". This is the only reason Beijing suspects supposed "Western interference" without a shred of evidence.

So, the trade agreement seems to be okay, this week. But, China doesn't want to be told to let its economy play by the same rules as ours because that too is "internal". There is one key flaw with China's thinking: entitlement.

Of course, America should not dictate what type of economy is best for China or any other nation. At the same time, trade is a privilege not a right. By America requiring a free market as a condition for trade with another free market, America is not interfering, but refusing to be interfered with.

Just the same, Beijing claims to reject a "zero-sum game" deal. What they mean is that they want a zero-sum game in China's favor because they believe being better than everyone else is their right. If America doesn't lose so that China can gain, China will reject the deal as unfair, just as they did with Britain in the "silver-for-leaves" trade that led to the Opium Wars. Nothing has changed.

The virtue of compromise doesn't work in dealing with China, whether as an American trade negotiator or as a citizen of Hong Kong. When China demands 100, then we compromise at 50, China will demand another 100 again tomorrow. If we compromise again, it would be 100-0, and it would happen all over again the next day and the next. China will keep demanding to expand and overrun everyone else. By China's China-favoring standards, the only compromise stands on how fast China takes you over, either ultra fast or slowly. For Beijing, there is no room for the words in the Book of Job where God told the ocean, "Here, and no farther."

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 7, 2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jfV7cP7gIM

Hong Kong has declared independence! On Friday, October 4, thousands peacefully gathered in Ma On Shan at New Hong Kong City Centre and read aloud a manifesto. This manifesto included basic arguments similar to the US Declaration of Independence, along with basic steps for a provisional government until the new government takes over. In the eyes of China, this will be treason, just as the US Declaration of Independence was treason in the eyes of Britain.

There has been no bigger news in almost 200 years. No nation has stood up to a world superpower so great since the American Colonies defied the world-dominating British Empire in 1776. Suspiciously, mainstream news agencies were utterly silent about this all weekend.

The next question is whether Hong Kong will be able to resist China's military. That question can only be answered by historians who have studied asymmetric warfare, such as the First War of Scottish Independence in 1270, the American Revolutionary War of 1775, or Vietnam's August Revolution of 1945.

Britain would be wise to help because that might allow the Crown to hold Hong Kong among the Commonwealth afterward. The UN is calling for an investigation into how China has handled the four months of protest, so it would seem that the world is on Hong Kong's side. But, investigations always follow long after a crime, even against Human Rights, while the people are left to defend themselves until help arrives. Can Hong Kong join the successful revolutionaries of history?

The string of anti-extradition protests began March 31, this year, 190 days ago. The protests have been in a state of ongoing outbreak since June 9. Hong Kongers have lived and fought in unrest in their own home for 120 days straight. They have overpowered a 32,000 troupe police force the entire time. Hong Kongers have thus become formidable and battle-tested with inferior weaponry. The impossible odds—fighting with bamboo sticks against guns—make the typical Jackie Chan movie prophetic. If China's PLA soldiers think they will have an easy time suppressing Hong Kong, they have news in store. It's not impossible. Only history will tell.

Unrest turned to turmoil on October 2, when China held its 70th Anniversary parade for the Communist Party. America will soon join Hong Kong's objection to China in its own way.

In Beijing, showing off the old-news, well-known DF-41 hypersonic, "can-hit-America-in-30-minutes" 10-nuke-warhead missiles was a miscalculation. America is not afraid because we don't expose the limits of our tech in parades. Most of our most-advanced military tech isn't known to the general public, which is somewhat how the American people want it to be, kind of. Seeing this flagrant, open threat will motivate the inventors and businesses in the wealthier, higher-tech America to neutralize China's open threats ASAP. Some are calling it a "Sputnik moment".

China is a nation that thinks itself to be stronger than it actually is. If it rises to even a quarter of the world domination it hopes, it would be the first time a superpower rose from a nation so ancient. Since Persia, all world superpowers of history rose from new nations built on the encouragement of new ideas, legal limits of government, and rights for citizens. China is not on a quest to defy the world; it is on a quest to defy history. Hong Kong has history on its side.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, September 9, 2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpivwNEV6VA

The missile issues in North Korea have too much unknown about them to formulate a clear opinion. From reports, Kim has indeed kept his promise, though he has violated seemingly less significant UN sanctions. Japan is on alert. Trump doesn't seem to care. If we made a stack of American clothes made in China, then stacked what we don't know about the North Korean missile crisis, the stack of what we don't know about North Korean missiles would be higher. It's unsettling, but sometimes we just don't know.

Carrie Lam's response to the "five demands" from protestors will not bode well in Hong Kong. She withdrew the controversial bill. The best illustration from Hong Kongers is a bandaid on a scratch after it turned gangrene. "Too little, too late" is what most are saying. Expect riots and burning buildings in the weeks to come.

Some Hong Kongers will indeed be satisfied with her speech, dare we say thrilled, but others will be enraged that she waited until after three months and a leaked recording. That recording included Lam's claim that she couldn't resign and that she had two masters, one of them Beijing. This is contrary to the autonomy required by the contract allowing China to claim Hong Kong as its own. If true, that recording could return Hong Kong to Britain merely in court. The stakes are high. Beijing cannot allow the public to believe that the recording demonstrated any truth. And, apparently Lam can't either.

If that recording was inaccurate as she said, then she wouldn't be so angry. Not only did she admit that the recording was real, it made her angry. Her objection to it is the recording's greatest notoriety. But, Confucian Beijing-minded Chinese don't understand that evidence speaks louder than spin. They only bake the cake they'll have to lay in.

Withdrawing the bill will be seen by many as an attempt to counter evidence that Beijing interferes regularly, violating the Basic Law and the Sino-British Joint Declaration of 1984. But, the evidence remains, and there are greater grievances.

Lam's speech fails to address the protests' demand for her resignation, which is the very subject of the leaked recording, which came just before her sudden withdrawal of the bill. The protestors insist on her resignation and will continue to. When she said that she never considered resigning, she further incriminated herself by proving that Hong Kong does not have its required universal suffrage and that she is part of the reason why.

Some will stop protesting, but those who continue will do so with more veracity. Apart from withdrawing the bill, everything in Lam's video ignores and insults the protest demands, essentially telling the people what they ought to want.

Telling people what they should want is widely accepted in Confucian society. But, it mixes with the West like water with oil. Lam wants to investigate to find out why Hong Kong rejected what are essentially Confucian values. But, there is no disturbance or interference or social trend to investigate. The conflict arose because the Confucian minds controlling Hong Kong, namely Lam and Beijing, are incapable of recognizing that Hong Kong already was Westernized. The question now is whether William Wallace can defeat Mao Tse-Tung.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, September 2, 2019

Reuters broke the story. According to unnamed sources, Beijing refused to let Hong Kong's government grant free elections, withdraw the extradition bill, and crackdown on police brutality. If this report can be proven in court, a case could be made that Hong Kong is no longer under China's governance, already. Of course, China would never recognize such a ruling and a military conflict between China and the West would quickly ensue.

The West has slowly been inching forward in support of Western freedoms everywhere the West resides, including Hong Kong, and China has been ill prepared. Had Beijing anticipated the status quo, preventative measures would have been taken long ago. But, China doesn't understand the West, just as Beijing can't understand Westernized Hong Kong. So, "suspicion" is the emotional response to expect.

Well past the 79-day record of continued protests from the Umbrella Movement in 2014, the extradition protests are in their 13th week.

Turn of events included protestors setting large fires on police-related barricades and the police using blue die in water cannons, presumably to mark protestors for later action. This is a serious escalation on both sides. Far more importantly, but less likely to be noticed, protestors marched outside the Chinese military garrison, near Central on Hong Kong Island. This is a direct affront to Chinese control and, for that reason alone, the situation has never been more explosive, so to speak.

Hong Kong's miracle was that it was Western, but it was located in the Far East. This made it an overlap and a gem in the world. It was the convergence of extremes that made Hong Kong special. But, Confucian-Communist Chinese can't imagine that being Western would make a thing desirable. So, Beijing chalks-up Hong Kong's "greatness" to the idea that "it is Chinese".

In attempt to explain the protests, and without evidence, China has repeatedly accused the West of interfering in Hong Kong, which got its very value from already being Western. The greatest Western influence in Hong Kong came from Hong Kong itself. Reports of supposed Western financial backing for Hong Kong protests seem laughable to the West since they have been presented without a shred of anything remotely resembling a "paper trail"; it's mere surmise.

Far more importantly, since when did Beijing object to Western influence? Communism is Western. But, seeing that requires objective thought, something Confucian culture can't do.

Beijing supposes their must be someone behind the protests. In Confucian Chinese thinking, no one would oppose their great benevolence unless someone else told them to, and "objective thinking" is a mere myth. But, the West can't imagine anyone supporting the government of the Tienanmen Square massacre without brainwashing.

As Westerners, Hong Koners don't want to be brainwashed to support such a murderous government, neither does the rest of the West. So, with this past week, we can't expect the West not to interpret action against Hong Kong's protestors as a preemptive attack on the rest of Western civilization. World War veterans remember what happens when the West feels threatened. Still, no matter how much Hong Kong wants to, Beijing refuses to allow the only way to stop making Western culture feel like someone wants it to stop being Western.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 26, 2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDdu3sTLit0

The Hong Kong police have lost public trust. They've cried, "Victim!" after their injuries were proven to be from self defense when they were the assailants. They illegally shot tear gas canisters as harmful projectiles in violation of international law and from windows high enough to kill someone if a canister landed on someone's head. One girl lost an eye because the police shot rubber bullets at the crowd at point blank range and one bullet passed through her protective face mask. Yet, the police claim that rubber bullets don't cause harm.

Now, peace turns to instant violence just because these police arrive. Or, perhaps it's because they arrive, then start pounding their batons against their shields as if they were Roman soldiers about to charge.

At the Yuen Long MTR Station in a somewhat remote part of Hong Kong's New Territories, protestors were loud, but not violent, until the police showed up. From well-earned fear, protestors tore up the place to block the police from blinding someone else. Trash cans and other furnishings were turned on side, fire extinguishers made a smokescreen, and the students pulled down a gate to block the way between themselves and the violent police of Hong Kong.

The greatest mistrust of Hong Kong police isn't their violence, but their inaction. The great criminals control the government. Perhaps protestors believe the police should enforce the Basic Law by forcefully unseating CEO Carrie Lam for violating the Sino-British Joint Declaration of 1984. But, they don't because they have become a tool of Beijing's interference, proven most by the usual Human Rights violations of Beijing.

But, Hong Kongers' fears are still greater, sharing an overlap with US President Trump. China wants to Sinicize the world, as the 2008 Olympics opening ceremony showed—as Hong Kong and Taiwan show—as America's economy shows.

As if Hong Kong's problems haven't shown enough about the greater threats looming over the world from the Far East, South Korea's vindictive administration keeps making trouble. This week, South Korea ended an intel sharing agreement with Japan, then stepped up military drills near an island disputed by Japan.

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Encore of Revival: America, August 19, 2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4_OWHRKUEM

The nation is polarizing even more. The anti-Israel sentiment from some members of Congress is only one part. The Russianewsgategate scandal surfaces more evidence every day, but no one changes heart or mind on the matter. Portland protests have the same non-effect on persuading people to change sides, only mobilizing everyone.

Chris Cuomo is grossly annoyed by Limbaugh's nickname for him. Perhaps he thinks he's the only one allowed to get offended. Senator Lindsey "Gramnesty" wore his like a badge of honor and Andrea "Tarantula" Tantaros welcomed Rush as a guest on her show to explain the good humor of it all. At this point, it's unlikely Rush will be able to grace the ratings of Chris, who seems to be the only one with a nickname the rest of us aren't allowed to use.

While protests and extreme voices raise their volume, the only thing provoking people to switch sides are Liberals in the spotlight. It's not all—neither those in the spotlight or those switching sides. But, some of the dumber and loudest among the Left have made themselves such an embarrassment that many social-minded voters are starting to think that they will get more social justice from the Right.

The election has always been and remains in Trump's favor. China will lose the trade war, as well as the other war it was always going to instigate. Gun laws and abortion laws will strengthen in both directions. While the Right seems to have the advantage for now, neither Right nor Left has any clear path towards domination, only further polarity. There's no stopping it. Buckle up, grab your popcorn, and stay safe.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, July 29, 2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-aGCQW45lNU

China says that Hong Kong CEO Carrie Lam may not resign because she must remain in power to clean up the mess China started and blames on her. Albeit, staying in power to clean up her scape-goat mess is impossible because cleaning up that mess requires her to resign as the people demanded. The "mess" includes her being there in the first place—because her election was not from self-governance as Hong Kongers were promised in 1984. The mess also includes China saying who may and may not resign—because China doesn't get a say about one grain of sand in Hong Kong until 2047.

The whole problem goes back to China's inability to not meddle. A Beijing-managed group based in Shenzhen has been carefully researching and observing the developments in Hong Kong so that Beijing can know how to properly respond—whatever that's supposed to mean. Make no mistake, they aren't trying to understand how to govern a free people or understand the reasonable requests of a free and self-motivated economy. They aren't trying to learn whatever wisdom might have made the West so rich and powerful in the first place. No, Beijing is on a mission to Sinicize Hong Kong out of being Hong Kong.

The current task is to figure out how to "disappear" 2 million Hong Kongers without the world noticing. Hong Kong's police under-reported the 2 million turnout; they'll probably under-report the number of "disappeared" people as well, and they need research to make it sound convincing. If the protests had happened in Xinjiang, Beijing wouldn't need to do such research because the world wouldn't be watching because making 2 million people disappear in Xinjiang was never a problem in the past. And, that's what Hong Kongers rightly fear.

Beijing's research narrative presumes that Hong Kongers only fear being "Xinjianged" because some phantom, invisible Western influence influenced them. They have no proof of this, but that's Beijing's presumption. If there's a problem, it must be America's fault. So, Beijing's approach is to sneak around and spy from the shadows until this phantom "influence monster" from the evil West shows its face. That's Beijing's plan to solve the Hong Kong problem.

Now, there's constitutional discussion about where and how Hong Kong's "Basic Law" allows military intervention from China, namely if Hong Kong's government asks. But, the whole discussion misses the whole point—that Hong Kong's Basic Law is based on the Sino-British Joint Declaration of 1984 of non-interference from Beijing. Beijing already interfered by not allowing self-governance in Hong Kong as promised. Not letting Carry Lam resign is yet another violation of that promise and premise. So, technically, the law beneath the Basic Law has already been dissolved. And, Beijing only incriminates itself further by claiming that promises made in the past don't need to be kept because they are in the past.

Pay attention because, while Taiwan is a linchpin that will bring America into war with China, Hong Kong is the linchpin that will bring the UK and Europe along with it.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, June 17, 2019

Trump's so-called "trade war" with China was never any failed attempt at relations. It was a way to get American companies out of China before the inevitable crud hit the fan. With Hong Kong's government ignoring it's people, we can see Trump's wisdom with China.

One million people in a population of just over 7 million protested a Beijing-backed extradition law in Hong Kong. Protests continued all week until a second, larger march returned one week later. What in the world is happening in the Far East? To understand Hong Kong, first take a look at Taiwan.

Much like the Asian Mad Scientist Theorem for North Korea, consider the Taiwan Schedule Theorem, as follows: Unknown to the world, China has a military expansion schedule which requires possession of Taiwan. By a certain time, Beijing wants to use Taiwan's harbors to anchor China's Navy. Anything that threatens or delays that schedule causes China to take more extreme steps elsewhere, in fact anywhere, anyway. This isn't truth; it's a theorem that explains a lot.

For example, the DPP being elected in 2016 meant a slow in China's schedule for Taiwan—according to this theorem. That led Beijing to lean on Taiwan's allies, making them break off formal relations with Taipei.

With this theorem in mind, the goal of the US would, then, be to make as many disruptions with China's "Taiwan schedule" as possible, provoking China to exhaust its "other" ways to respond to schedule delays. Trade would be one way China could respond to schedule delays. But, the US trade war already removed "trade" as way to retaliate.

Another way China expands its power is through unofficial loans. Sri Lanka had to surrender a strategic sea port to China because of debt. Moreover, if countries borrow Chinese money off the books, then government bond values are inaccurate. Under-the-table lending is another rout China can take if the "Taiwan schedule" gets delayed, but that's been exposed and won't be so easy in the future.

China's getting boxed-in and Taiwan absorption seems farther and farther away.

With snowballing US-Taiwan cooperation—including the FBI scene last week, also including the $2 Billion in arms sales—China will see more delays. Protesting the G20 set for June 28, 2019 in Osaka would be another way Beijing could retaliate for delays in absorbing Taiwan. But, Trump already promised tariffs on yet another $300 Billion in goods if Xi Jinping doesn't show.

Chinese ambassadors to G20 countries are promoting anti-US sentiment. Will those countries be likely to side with China against the US just because a Beijing ambassador told them what to do? Even Hong Kongers don't like Beijing telling their CEO what to do. Perhaps Beijing doesn't know that. Perhaps Beijing knows, but doesn't care. Perhaps everyone "kowtowing" to China's demands over the last 40 years has led the Chinese to believe they are more influential than they really are. Beijing doesn't seem to be aware of where it stands with international opinion. But, it might find out soon.

Does any Chinese president show up where he is not welcome? Think about that...

With Trump's G20 threat in place, if Xi Jinping shows up at G20 where his anti-US diplomacy efforts "un-welcomed" him, then people will think he succumbs to threats and is weak. If he doesn't show, then Trump will lecture China publicly about "keeping a schedule" while Xi's country faces tariffs on $300 Billion of goods, and Xi will be seen as weak. More importantly, with new tariffs, China would be even less able to retaliate to delays in the "Taiwan schedule". Either way, drama over G20 exhausts China and leads to a checkmate.

If Taiwan is considered a playing "card", then it is a "trump" card, as they say. Taiwan might be a chess piece, but not one that gets sacrificed. Taiwan may be the pawn-turned-queen to hold the king in check at the end game.

Now, consider Hong Kong, where a "to other countries including China" extradition law brought out 1 Million Hong Kongers in protest, twice. CEO Carrie Lam outright ignored the protestorstwice. She's sad—not about her proposed extradition law, but that the law is opposed. Ignoring 1/7th of the population when they march in the streets is a bad idea in any country, in any universe. But, Carrie doesn't care, thus reflecting the worldview of any Beijinger.

Taiwan responded by deciding that it would not cooperate with the Hong Kong extradition law, even if passed, until "human rights" were addressed and only if Hong Kong heeded the opinion of its people in choosing whether to pass the law. Without Taiwan's support, the largest—if not only—reason known to the public for the law has vanished. And, it's all because of Taiwan.

One important factor in the "Taiwan schedule" is the upcoming election. Things seemed to be leaning toward Mayor Han of Kaohsiung for the KMT-Nationalist party. But, the events in Hong Kong over the past week have weakened Han and almost certainly assured a second term for Taiwan's incumbent, President Tsai. That means only more delays in the "schedule"

If Beijing can't get a grip on Taiwan quickly, Beijing will tighten its grip on Hong Kong even more.

But, Hong Kong is small and already attached to the mainland and doesn't lend itself to much in the way of retaliation. Too many changes in Hong Kong law and countries will break treaty with Hong Kong and the "Asia's World City" show will be finished. Once Hong Kong is no longer sufficient for Beijing to lash out over delays with Taiwan, the only retaliation left will be to invade Taiwan. That was Washington's goal all along—a fight for Taiwan that requires Pentagon intervention—and long-term presence after—and China started it.

Beijing might be willing for a pro-unification candidate to win  Taiwan's election. But, if other things crowd in too quickly—say the US normalizes with Taiwan—the 2020 election wouldn't help the "Taiwan schedule" either way. Beijing needs to give Washington a reason not to formalize ties with Taipei, and so far they haven't. G20 will decide a lot; China voting "absent" will decide a lot more a lot more quickly. Based on this Taiwan Schedule Theorem, expect more jeers and insults leading up to G20, from both sides, at the end of this month and expect Beijing to try every way to tighten its grip on Hong Kong.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, June 17, 2019

Trump's so-called "trade war" with China was never any failed attempt at relations. It was a way to get American companies out of China before the inevitable crud hit the fan. With Hong Kong's government ignoring it's people, we can see Trump's wisdom with China.

One million people in a population of just over 7 million protested a Beijing-backed extradition law in Hong Kong. Protests continued all week until a second, larger march returned one week later. What in the world is happening in the Far East? To understand Hong Kong, first take a look at Taiwan.

Much like the Asian Mad Scientist Theorem for North Korea, consider the Taiwan Schedule Theorem, as follows: Unknown to the world, China has a military expansion schedule which requires possession of Taiwan. By a certain time, Beijing wants to use Taiwan's harbors to anchor China's Navy. Anything that threatens or delays that schedule causes China to take more extreme steps elsewhere, in fact anywhere, anyway. This isn't truth; it's a theorem that explains a lot.

For example, the DPP being elected in 2016 meant a slow in China's schedule for Taiwan—according to this theorem. That led Beijing to lean on Taiwan's allies, making them break off formal relations with Taipei.

With this theorem in mind, the goal of the US would, then, be to make as many disruptions with China's "Taiwan schedule" as possible, provoking China to exhaust its "other" ways to respond to schedule delays. Trade would be one way China could respond to schedule delays. But, the US trade war already removed "trade" as way to retaliate.

Another way China expands its power is through unofficial loans. Sri Lanka had to surrender a strategic sea port to China because of debt. Moreover, if countries borrow Chinese money off the books, then government bond values are inaccurate. Under-the-table lending is another rout China can take if the "Taiwan schedule" gets delayed, but that's been exposed and won't be so easy in the future.

China's getting boxed-in and Taiwan absorption seems farther and farther away.

With snowballing US-Taiwan cooperation—including the FBI scene last week, also including the $2 Billion in arms sales—China will see more delays. Protesting the G20 set for June 28, 2019 in Osaka would be another way Beijing could retaliate for delays in absorbing Taiwan. But, Trump already promised tariffs on yet another $300 Billion in goods if Xi Jinping doesn't show.

Chinese ambassadors to G20 countries are promoting anti-US sentiment. Will those countries be likely to side with China against the US just because a Beijing ambassador told them what to do? Even Hong Kongers don't like Beijing telling their CEO what to do. Perhaps Beijing doesn't know that. Perhaps Beijing knows, but doesn't care. Perhaps everyone "kowtowing" to China's demands over the last 40 years has led the Chinese to believe they are more influential than they really are. Beijing doesn't seem to be aware of where it stands with international opinion. But, it might find out soon.

Does any Chinese president show up where he is not welcome? Think about that...

With Trump's G20 threat in place, if Xi Jinping shows up at G20 where his anti-US diplomacy efforts "un-welcomed" him, then people will think he succumbs to threats and is weak. If he doesn't show, then Trump will lecture China publicly about "keeping a schedule" while Xi's country faces tariffs on $300 Billion of goods, and Xi will be seen as weak. More importantly, with new tariffs, China would be even less able to retaliate to delays in the "Taiwan schedule". Either way, drama over G20 exhausts China and leads to a checkmate.

If Taiwan is considered a playing "card", then it is a "trump" card, as they say. Taiwan might be a chess piece, but not one that gets sacrificed. Taiwan may be the pawn-turned-queen to hold the king in check at the end game.

Now, consider Hong Kong, where a "to other countries including China" extradition law brought out 1 Million Hong Kongers in protest, twice. CEO Carrie Lam outright ignored the protestorstwice. She's sad—not about her proposed extradition law, but that the law is opposed. Ignoring 1/7th of the population when they march in the streets is a bad idea in any country, in any universe. But, Carrie doesn't care, thus reflecting the worldview of any Beijinger.

Taiwan responded by deciding that it would not cooperate with the Hong Kong extradition law, even if passed, until "human rights" were addressed and only if Hong Kong heeded the opinion of its people in choosing whether to pass the law. Without Taiwan's support, the largest—if not only—reason known to the public for the law has vanished. And, it's all because of Taiwan.

One important factor in the "Taiwan schedule" is the upcoming election. Things seemed to be leaning toward Mayor Han of Kaohsiung for the KMT-Nationalist party. But, the events in Hong Kong over the past week have weakened Han and almost certainly assured a second term for Taiwan's incumbent, President Tsai. That means only more delays in the "schedule"

If Beijing can't get a grip on Taiwan quickly, Beijing will tighten its grip on Hong Kong even more.

But, Hong Kong is small and already attached to the mainland and doesn't lend itself to much in the way of retaliation. Too many changes in Hong Kong law and countries will break treaty with Hong Kong and the "Asia's World City" show will be finished. Once Hong Kong is no longer sufficient for Beijing to lash out over delays with Taiwan, the only retaliation left will be to invade Taiwan. That was Washington's goal all along—a fight for Taiwan that requires Pentagon intervention—and long-term presence after—and China started it.

Beijing might be willing for a pro-unification candidate to win  Taiwan's election. But, if other things crowd in too quickly—say the US normalizes with Taiwan—the 2020 election wouldn't help the "Taiwan schedule" either way. Beijing needs to give Washington a reason not to formalize ties with Taipei, and so far they haven't. G20 will decide a lot; China voting "absent" will decide a lot more a lot more quickly. Based on this Taiwan Schedule Theorem, expect more jeers and insults leading up to G20, from both sides, at the end of this month and expect Beijing to try every way to tighten its grip on Hong Kong.

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Encore of Revival: America, July 2, 2018

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x6necue

America is in great peril. A party is looking at winning the midterm right after winning the presidency. This is not normal and it doesn't matter how "wonderful" the party may seem at the time. Single-party rule is the death of the nation.

Mass shootings, Leftist protests, anger, rage, blame—the Left turns up the volume and the Republican party grows bigger.

The Republican Party is not what anyone thinks it is because the Republican Party isn't really a thing. This is the party that despised its own president, who is giving them this unusual midterm victory—but then suddenly gets behind him. This is not a party with normal values of conscience, but a party that gauges popular opinion and always arrives at the right conclusion too late—because that party actually has a moral compass quite different from the rest of the country.

Whatever that hidden moral compass is will only be seen after the party gains its supermajority and Trump leaves. From the moment he announced, Trump's biggest danger was always that he would succeed too well.

Give it ten years to ripen, but we live in the most dangerous time of the nation's history. Of course, there's always a chance to wake up and get it done right. But, the nation first needs to see the danger where it lies: in the hidden values of the always "failing" GOP, then to recognize that hope has already been kindled.

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Encore of Revival: America, February 13, 2017

Upheaval continues to take from in both protests and weather. Houston immigrants are in near panic and, now, the Oroville Dam in California is in trouble and 188k people are evacuating.

Trump’s executive actions have a long history of basis, including Congress having given the president indefinite power concerning national security, Presidents Lincoln and Jackson having arrested dissident judges—more extreme than anything Trump has done so far. Trump is complying with the rulings of the courts, even though he presses on.

The Senate has the “Constitutional Option”, often called the “Nuclear Option”, where the president of the Senate, the Vice President, can call the Senate to vote without the Senate’s consent where “matters of the Constitution” are concerned. This means that the standing majority of Senators will be able to approve judges. Problems of Senate rules have come up, seemingly that the Senate has made rules that tie its own hands. That itself is a Constitutional question: Can the Senate write its own rules making itself unable to function?

In the end, all objection and opposition to Trump will make the Republican case stronger, including the protests from dissident constituents in Republican Congressional districts. Even if Trump did not have the majority support of the country, the Republicans in the House and Senate do. It seems clear that the minority is loud and the silent majority is busy at work, having finished their project in November. Still, dissidents have the evidence they need to encourage themselves to carry on. Difficult times remain ahead. continue reading

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Symphony

Encore of Revival: America, November 14, 2016

The hashtag #Calexit would be #Texit if the election had gone the other way. California and Texas already did secede once. Of course Washington would do something to stop it, we wouldn’t be dealing with Obama anymore. Secession is now on the table for real, thank you Californians. It’s only a matter of time. These are bad days for globalism.

Reince Priebus and Stephen Bannon will be great in the White House. Trump is the man who led and starred one of NBC’s most profitable shows, The Apprentice. He knows who to hire. This man, accused of being a woman-hating, homophobic racist has already hired KellyAnne Connway, Peter Thiel, and Dr. Ben Carson. The Anti-Trumpist retort is that they are examples of Trump operating in “rare form”.

Are the protesters in as much danger of Trump as they protest to being? Will Trump retaliate against NBC and other venomous enemies with an onslaught of IRS audits and the like? Historically, no because Trump is not a Democrat.

“Experts” in other countries, disparaged Democrat voters, members from the four corners of Congress, and media talking heads from the four corners of the moon—even Fox News Sunday and debate host extraordinaire Christopher Wallace—did not predict the 2016 US election outcome; Pacific Daily Times Editor in Chief and writer-narrator of this editorial, Jesse Steele, did in early February. The most widely-known prediction of Trump’s victory before Jesse Steele’s was from Richard Nixon’s wife, though Mrs. Nixon didn’t make a map.

A few polls got it right. Khali at Trafalgar polling found a way to get the truth from “shy” Trumpist Conservatives who think they can’t tell the truth to pollsters: “Who is your neighbor voting for?” It’s interesting how we tend to think that our neighbors think how we think.

In their ever-shifting opinions and speculations about Trump, so-called “experts” of 20/20 hindsight who park their pedestals among aftermath should cite their more accurate election maps published before February. As usual, if you read it here, you read it here first, at Pacific Daily Times.

The divide in America is between the archetypal city mice and country mice. The country mice need land to make things in factories and grow food on farms; the city mice manage the market’s business on less and more costly land, all the while consuming the fat of the land they rarely visit. Like a saddle and a horse, a saddle helps, but bareback is an option while a saddle ridden on the fence goes nowhere.

The two are naturally polarized and out of touch with each other; they have formed political right and left extremes. The country mice want production and renaissance while the city mice want fashion and manners. Being a “moderate” in the city-country conflict surmounts to mixing coffee with orange juice at breakfast—both are great, but they need different cups.

As for the controversy of the electoral college, it resurfaces in every presidential election as if it has just surfaced for the first time: It’s a newbie voter’s topic. The basic purpose is, in the event of a very close margin of city mice v country mice, the country mice will win because the country can’t function without the rural backbone. This is why a State gets just two extra votes just for being a State, and all that comes with it. This is why Alaska contributed 3 Republican votes, not just 1, and Hawaii and New Hampshire contributed each 4 Democrat votes, not just 2. That said, there have been no certified reports on how much of Clinton’s 260k vote lead came from illegal voting. We do know that Democrats openly object to measures that prevent illegal voting while moderate Republicans claim to oppose illegal voting, with little or no action to back up that claim. The policies, both actual and claimed, of both Democrats and Republicans brought the vote to what it was.

Pro-Lifers should be glad abortion will likely end. That was the biggest and most lasting direct result of this election, which many people have not realized, yet if ever. Perhaps Religious Right Conservative Christian Anti-Trumpist lamenters could learn a thing or two about gratitude from Liberal Democratic Anti-Trumpist protesters. Trump has managed to inspire shared hashtags for these Conservatives and Liberals. They might actually talk to each other now. That could be a longer-lasting, less direct result of this election. The way has been paved for The People’s Party.

The massive protests against Trump are the result of the country’s public education policies since the 1990’s. Students are given a trophy for showing up and recognition of winners and losers in sports is outright persecuted. Nannying and sissifying young people left the generation of first-time voters ill-prepared to deal with loss. While neither Conservative nor Liberal youth have had much experience training them to deal with the emotions of “losing” something, Conservative parents were more likely to prepare them at home for the things that school neglected. If nothing else, Conservative first-time voters had their first eight years of voting to learn to deal with loss; the Democrats did not.

There would have been protests of some kind either way. These protests are more of a “nasty” nature, involving destruction of private property with little legislative result. Had the election gone the other way, riots would have been replaced with larger, more peaceful, and yet more effective protests. Secession petitions would have been legitimate enough to provoke Congress, involve the Supreme Court, and surely military action, citing Clinton corruption and excess executive orders that Trump promised to undo. This election was somewhat of a “deal”: Get back inside the Constitutional boundaries or rip it up; the electors chose to get back inside the lines, for now. California and Texas will secede eventually, but that will require the “don’t get mad, get busy” action of sobriety and will happen only after elections and wars yet to come.

Contrary to some opinions floating around the “media-osphere”, there actually is a Constitutional basis for secession, though not stated directly. The Federal government is obligated to repel invasion, according to original Article IV. If the US is ever invaded, State secession will be as Constitutional as it is inevitable. The topic California brought up implies a warning to US enemies: Invading the United States at home would not be an act of war against one country, but against fifty. While secession is coming, let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. The president elect still has not taken office, the electoral college has not voted, and the results of many States have not yet been certified by their election authorities. While some things are foreseeable from the vantage point of history, history informs foresight while the two remain separate.

The earthquakes had the final and poetic word after “US election week”: Both sides of the Pacific were shocked and shaken, and, more poetically, the shock in Christchurch started a tsunami.

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Symphony

Encore of Revival: America, September 26, 2016

The Obama administration finally creates a “cease fire”, and within weeks the other side has a strong case made for new war crimes. Omitting other examples of oxymoronic results, it is ever bit as true that Obama is the number one reason Trump will win 2016 as W Bush was the number one reason Obama won 2008. As with Clinton v HW, and W v Clinton, winning presidents have pit their campaigns against the lame duck for the last 28 years.

As for the irony of Tulsa v Charlotte—why one city prayed while the other was invaded by outside rioters—there is too much going on behind the scenes for any easy explanation. To claim Soros’ funding of outsiders’ protesting is a drastic understatement. Newspapers profit more from hate than peace. Justice and press-release protocol is always too sluggish. Too many cops would rather study donut menus than smart practice—but, not the good ones, of course! White guys say, “Just follow police directions,” to people whose skin they’ve never tried on. Black guys say, “I can’t follow police directions perfectly enough when we’re both scared out of our boots!” Perps feign injury by definition; no one knows who to blame.

Obama has had 8 years of speeches to resolve conflict into peace, but instead—intentionally or incompetently, but no less narcissistically—he kept talking while he kept losing, and thus rolled out another red carpet for the pending Trump victory. It’s almost enough to make one believe in trans-presidential conspiracy. Between HW, Bill, W, Barry, and Trump—there we have a all star lineup. But, who knows and who cares!?

Most of the real news gets unreported anyway. This week’s Syrian atrocity happened to make headlines. But, Russia could not be nominated as a war criminal if ISIS—the dominant sprawling force in Syria—didn’t exist in the first place. The players going home before the clock ran out, leaving behind tanks and trucks and whatever weapons still in the bubble-wrap for “whomever” came along to prize… Who made that call? And, who started in the first place? ISIS was Obama’s score with the Bush family assist, and the man who objected from the beginning, now sporting two assists from the Clinton family, is about to defeat them both and become the next decision-maker. Putin has been on the court longer than any of them. No wonder cigarettes and painkillers are in a dead heat.

If we find favor upstairs, our Texan will get to play longer than even Putin. Cruz finally came around. Trump may give him SCOTUS, not for making an endorsement late or early, but for Cruz being so evidently conscientious. America’s memory of conscience is long overdue.

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Faux Report

Kenny G Disperses Hong Kong Protesters by Playing “Going Home” on Continuous Loop


HONG KONG — The turbulent Hong Kong democracy protests came to an end yesterday when jazz saxophonist Kenny G dispersed the crowds by playing his hit song “Going Home” on a continuous loop.

As the smooth, sultry tones wafted through the crowd, protesters packed up their belongings, as if on cue, and headed for the nearest exit.

“Oh, I guess it’s over,” said one protester as he furled his umbrella. “That or a supermarket is closing.”

“I guess it’s over. That or a supermarket is closing.”

Alex Chow, leader of the Hong Kong Federation of Students, tried to stop the scattering crowd, calling the impromptu performance “an obvious ploy by the central government.”

But even the most hardened dissidents proved no match for the soothing, downtempo beat.

“It’s no use. People hear Kenny G and they leave,” Chow told reporters. “He’s like the reverse Pied Piper.”

Though makeshift earplugs were quickly disseminated to the crowd, the damage done to the protest movement was clear. By the sixth time Kenny G launched into the silky strains of “Going Home,” nearly 90 percent of the protesters had left.

Pleased with the saxophonist’s success, high-ranking party officials convened in Beijing this morning to discuss whether to keep Kenny G on retainer for use in the over 180,000 mass incidents that occur every year.

At press time, Kenny G was still in Hong Kong, serenading the few remaining protesters who, according to sources, were close to killing themselves.

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