Symphony

Encore of Revival: America, October 5, 2020

People need to see their leader. It’s a national security issue. Is the one in charge alive and well? Rumors about Kim Jong-Un’s health often send tremors of doubt through and around North Korea. We don’t want the same doubt in America. Doctor’s, however, have a narrower and more specific perspective.

Presidents get sick. This is something that happens to almost every president sooner or later. Not if, but when it happens, gossip columns circle questions about transitions of power, mostly to capitalize on curiosity from the country.

President Trump’s diagnosis with the pneumoniavirus will lionize him in the minds of the electorate. Now, he is more involved and affected by the virus and is no longer an outsider. He is the victim of China and champion of the people. That’s the political script playing out. It can’t hurt him in the election, only boost his numbers—because of how he responds.

He learns. He stays strong. He takes precautions. He hates the unpopular masks. He defies doctors’ orders—something most Americans love doing. He quarantines himself—something most Americans identify with. He keeps working—because we’re all depending on him. Without this response, he would have hurt his own numbers. He chose to respond with “involved strength”. Everything is okay if we make it okay, and that’s what the president did.

As for the Senate, they found their excuse to step up the suspense and delay of confirming Amy Coney Barrett. Isn’t that a politically miraculous coincidence!

Equally coincidental are China and Biden. Neither can say bad things about a man who is sick in the hospital. That’d be like punching a man with glasses. China has to roll back its aggression in the South and East seas or else be seen as an even greater aggressor by the rest of the West.

It’s funny how things always seem to work out. None of this was planned, not in the least. It was all a miraculous, convenient coincidence. Nothing more.

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, April 6, 2020

The pneumoniavirus is having a detrimental effect on China. While Xi Jinping kicks China’s economy into full swing, the rest of the world is on full alert. Manufacturing moves home—whether to or from China. Countries seek alternate supply sourcing. Taiwan shines like a star of brilliance, set up as if to shame China by design. China’s big mistake was going along with feeling shamed, as if by design. China could have played its hand with Taiwan the way the UK did with the American Revolution—claiming it lost a few colonies, but that it didn’t matter. By pretending not to care, the world might not care and China would be unstoppable. Instead, China is taking every step possible to create new enemies and make old enemies worry.

In that wake, Taiwan grows in military and respect, even donating medical masks to other countries. The WHO now faces shame and doubt because of an evermore apparent bias toward China. Australia cooperates with the US in efforts to confront China. Critical voices in China are silenced or otherwise go missing. An employee of Hong Kong CEO Carrie Lam resigned, then killed himself. Kim Jong-Un makes more threats. East Asia is more volatile than ever. Times like these are what some call an “opportunity”.

Great Pacific

Hong Kong official reprimands TV station over WHO interview that mentioned Taiwan // Guardian

C.I.A. Hunts for Authentic Virus Totals in China, Dismissing Government Tallies // NY Times

Martha McSally calls on WHO director to resign // Politico

Hong Kong broadcaster accused of breaching ‘one-China principle’ after reporter presses WHO official on Taiwan membership // SCMP

Trade & Tech

Now TSMC involved!
Huawei Warns of ‘Pandora’s Box’ If U.S. Curbs Taiwan Supply // Yahoo News

China

‘Shameless’: anger as China quarantines freed human rights lawyer 400km from home // Guardian

Drums of war!
The coronavirus pandemic is the breakthrough Xi Jinping has been waiting for. And he’s making his move. // Maclean’s

Many wonder if China’s coronavirus recovery can be trusted // CNN

Chinese county goes into coronavirus lockdown as country tries to get back to work amid fear of second wave // SCMP

A Chinese Millionaire and Gadfly of the Communist Party Has Vanished After Staging an Art Performance Criticizing Xi Jinping // artnet News

China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says // Bloomberg

Expats face hostility after second wave of virus cases hits China and Hong Kong // Financial Times

Taiwan

Donating masks to allies! ?
Virus Outbreak: Taiwan joins global COVID-19 battle // Taipei Times

Is Taiwan Really Buying the ‘Wrong’ Weapons? // The Diplomat

Masks mandatory on Taiwan trains, inter-city buses starting today // Taiwan News

An American Perspective on Australia’s Approach to the Taiwan Strait // Ketagalan Media

Why Taiwan has become a problem for WHO // BBC News

Senior WHO adviser appears to dodge question on Taiwan’s Covid-19 response // Guardian

Hong Kong

Ramifications, ramifications…
Former employee of Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Office dies after falling from residential building // SCMP

Korean Peninsula

North Korea rips Pompeo, says ‘if the US bothers us, it will be hurt’ // Fox News

Military Faceoff

Lockheed Martin Wins $4.8B Deal to Procure 78 F-35 Jets // Yahoo News

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 27, 2019

President Trump's response to Kim Jong-Un's recent missile party neither shows lack of a plan nor lack of respect for Japan; it show patience and insight. Gaining and maintaining trust and respect in difficult situations requires sureness in action and slowness in harsh words. Talk is cheap. These are politics, after all.

Trump has taken no action nor signed any orders giving Kim more permission. Many pundits and opinion commentators have speculated that Trump will have difficulty with Abe because of his patient words for Kim, but all of this speculation is speculation only. They are presenting a model to analyze Trump's decisions, but that model is devoid of a grid of using "kind words" in the face of betrayal. Kim's strategy has not deviated: provoke a US response. Trump's words "defuse" that strategy, so to speak. Trump is no pretentious fool, more of a patient father.

The situation in China, however is heating up, obviously for the same reasons. Trump and Xi exchange similar words as Trump gives in response to Kim's actions. They promise to prepare for talks while rallying their own citizens against each other. Rumors of peace are the surest sign that there is none just as provocation indicates a peace not easily broken.

Taiwan is gearing up for war, its war machine in full motion. Taiwan is beginning mass production of strategic strike responses. Taiwan is renaming one of its offices to include both "US" and "Taiwan" in the name, which is a first. These are not actions that have any intention of appeasing Beijing.

Then, there's Hong Kong. Responses from the American government would view the SAR as no longer capable of diplomatic ties if the extradition law on the table is passed. This extradition law would likely isolate Hong Kong from North America and Europe. We know war is close, but "how close" will be known by whether Beijing allows "Asia's World City" to internationally isolate itself.

Those promised and prepared talks between Beijing and Washington will only serve as size-ups, if they even happen.

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, April 15, 2018

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LqVXfD2DliA

Events in China are playing out according to the "Pacific Daily Times Symphony Asian Mad Scientist Theorem". The experimental phase in North Korea is finished and methods are being applied throughout China on a much grander scale. This week, we see reports of expensive ghost cities, comparable to Pyongyang. The debt to build those ghost cities could be enough to break China's economy into the deprived status of northern Korea. Now, swelling human rights concern could court the West to support China's unfriendly neighbors to intervene in China as the "grand liberators".

If things continue on track with the theorem, China would end up in an armistice against its own provinces—a standoff between Beijing and fragments of the soon-to-be-formerly united China.

Trump continues to prove that he knows what he's doing with Kim Jong-Un. The DPRK's Great Successor will likely wise up, still venting steam once in a while. He seems to be one of the smartest heads of state in his region—seeking more cooperation with economic policies that work, not less. But even if not, Korea will not be a border for China to ignore. Beijing and its surrounding provinces would be the likely hold-out against a liberated Northwest, Tibet, Southern Canton, and it will need to keep a 24/7 guard in the Northeast. Break-aways could form their own federation, or not. Either way, as history repeats, we look to be headed for a Cold War -style standoff between fractured Chinese regions.

The US Marines are test driving "lightning carriers"—small aircraft carriers with a potently packed punch of F-35s. Their range radius is smaller, but so is their targetable shadow. In a Pacific conflict, a smattering of lightning carriers might prove more formidable than a single, central Nimitz class group. Federated, autonomous, small attack groups tend to be wise in warfare, as the French Revolution proved on land. We'll see at sea.

These smaller carriers are said to focus on smaller tasks, putting Nimitz class carriers—now being called "super carriers"—in the spotlight against China and Russia. And, we know that the Chinese think the spotlight is an indication of "importance". While Russia knows better, the Chinese probably don't. Just because headlines read that a Nimitz class focuses on China doesn't mean US strategy would fail if China's new "anti-carrier" missiles sunk a Nimitz. Sinking a Nimitz class carrier would only enrage the American public into a war that they couldn't lose. That's how history has always played out, anyway. But, the mistakes from history don't seem to have much impact on Chinese President Xi, who is determined to revive Maoism at any cost. If Maoism is revived, it's results will follow. That won't end the standoff with Taiwan; it will add more uncontrolled lands to the standoff it was never strong enough to resolve.

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, April 1, 2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ov5HRJ9vTOo

China is being overwhelmed—Huawei to the west, British probes to the south, Kim to the north, but the prospect of trade to the east. The weakness is in the Chinese-cultural paradigm of negotiation. Chinese culture wants to sign a contract first, then negotiate the terms after. That's a polite way of explaining "psychopathic negotiation".

China labels Hong Kong as an "internal", national security matter. It's not; it's a "joint" matter. According to the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration, China can't govern Hong Kong as its own until 2047—a mandate for Hong Kong being under Beijing's leadership. By telling Britain to "face reality", London will see the reality as Beijing reneging on the deal. It's not that China wants to be malicious, but that China doesn't understand what a promise really entails.

That could be why the Chinese offer such sweeping concessions to get better trade with America. They might not understand that promises about those concessions will actually have to be kept. But, there's more that sails over Beijing's brightest heads.

America shows no indication of backing down on Taiwan. By cozying up on trade, Beijing probably hopes America will receive an indirect message about Taiwan. But, if Taiwan isn't discussed, then it's not part of the trade agreement—or any agreement with the US. Beijing, probably laden with more wishful thinking than savvy, won't understand. They just won't understand.

That's the Korean problem to the north. Trump knew exactly what he was doing by telling Kim exactly what "de-nuking" looked like. They had talked before. Kim had taken a three day journey to talk again. Now Kim knows reality: a free economy prospers, North with nukes has neither in the end. That won't go over well with a culture more prideful than the Chinese. Trump knows this.

Now, Kim is a loose canon to China's north and the only thing Trump did was unleash the obvious. We'll see how long it takes for China to understand, if ever.

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, March 18, 2019

Drama and theatrics! The US might be in a position to enforce the Magnitsky Act against China. Now, like Taiwan before, the US is taking the pot shots. It compares to Tony Stark's Iron Man tossing rocks at a tank to provoke the tank before obliterating the tank.

Talk of talks about trade with China while focusing on more military money for what Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan calls "China, China, China"—that's not an effort to make peace with a country that wants it, but an effort to irritate a not-so-closet adversary into justifying a retaliatory victory. China will see the US as two-faced, never figuring out that the US is intentionally getting under Beijing's skin because the Chinese don't know how easily irritable their view of themselves makes them.

Then, there's Korea. In a retelling from The Godfather III, we might say that Kim wouldn't do this without backing. By rumbling about nuking up again, Kim is flexing muscles that shouldn't be flexed—but only would be flexed if someone, say like Xi Jinping, were whispering support in his ear. More is going on than even Trump may be revealing, even if Kim's rumblings are all for show. If tensions rise between the US and Northern Korea, China would be the likely backstage culprit. That would mean that tension in the Koreas would justify US action against China—yet another tank rock to toss.

Then, we have "melo-theatrics" worse than "damn lies": statistics.

If Trump's poll numbers were to suddenly plummet, nothing would bring them back like a victory against evermore unpopular China—now at 41% in America. That makes Trump, 47% as of Tuesday, more popular than China. If House Democrats were to take action against Trump, that might encourage China that he would not be able to sustain action against China—when actually a victorious action against China would bring up his popularity to make him politically immune to House Democrats. The freedom and opinion -driven dynamics of American politics eludes Chinese strategists, another front on which Beijing is likely to miscalculate.

If Trump's popularity were to slip just before a conflict with China, it could have been intentional—as a means to provoke China into thinking that China is stronger against the US than it is. But, China will never figure it out, like the cat chasing the laser pen's dot—they never figure it out.

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, March 11, 2019

China doesn't get the message, likely because China is too self-absorbed in its own culture. Detaining Canadians will provoke Canadians to support action against China to have the detained Canadians released—even supporting military action. When the US and China finally officiate their conflict, Canada may join the fray, all thanks to Beijing belligerence.

The Western press inches up its hardline against China every day. Even Europe reports on social media censorship in China. This comes on the 60th anniversary of the Tibetan Uprising. China closed visits to Tibet for this reason. But, that doesn't matter since Taiwan could see a visit from the US Secretary of Health and Human Services as well as the Dalai Lama.

Speaking of Taiwan, the self-ruled island is arming to the teeth. They just put in a request with the US, asking whatever military equipment they should buy so their military will be stronger than China's.

Northern Korea has all the indications of someone whispering in their ears, encouraging and emboldening against peace with the US. After Trump met with Kim, after he returned home to the States to find a message that Kim would be less cooperative, Kim had spent significant time in China. Now, we have more indications that North Korea is continuing missile tests. The bigger problem in Korean North is that the people know the Hanoi Summit did not get economic sanctions lifted—Northern Koreans are learning the truth, despite controls on speech and information.

Now, Pakistan has put China in a precarious spot. The recent "explosive" squabble between Pakistan and India attracted Western eyes. It's great that Pakistan wants to go after terror cells within its borders, but it's terrible that Pakistan doesn't go after terror cells that launch attacks against India. Pakistan buys weapons from both the US and China. The US won't sell fighter jets to Pakistan for use against India; China would—or would it? If China did, then China would be backing the backing of terrorism. So, little, tiny Pakistan has tipped the balance against China by being friendly with China as a weapons buyer.

So, all Chinese eyes are on Pakistan—and India and North Korea and Taiwan.

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, February 25, 2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pN7H-n22FU

Nations and peoples of the free world are reaching toward each other. The EU reached out to Taiwan and Taiwan was grateful. Taiwan reached out to CNN and CNN did an interview. Kim Jong Un is likely on a train headed through China to Vietnam to meet President Trump. President Trump met with the Vice Premier of China in the Oval Office to discuss trade. And, China "rightly" oppresses an estimated two million Muslims in internment camps, who inhabit the hope-to-breakaway province of Xinjiang, through which China's "Silk Road" passes to reach other nations with trillions of dollars in trade.

Taiwan's position in the world only stepped up. In tech, it's the multinational victim of China. The EU's unanimous statement of support for Taiwan and condemnation of China's military activity in the Taiwan Strait is anything but positive PR for China. Taiwan has the support of Europe; that doesn't count for nothing.

China's latest shenanigans include Hong Kong taking a serious look at redefining extradition laws so that Taiwanese in Hong Kong would be "extradited" to China. This does far more damage for Hong Kong's popularity with its electorate at home than it does for Taiwan, raising international sympathy for both. Remember, meddling in Hong Kong's government is a "must not" as the condition of Hong Kong not remaining under Britain. Nothing would indicate Chinese meddling in Hong Kong's government more than such a sure-to-backfire anti-PR move like Hong Kong is making by even entertaining such a revision.

The fingerprints of Beijing damaging Hong Kong where British interests remain, all in order to damage Taiwan, goes against the wisdom of courting favor with the masses across Europe. Then, there's Huawei.

As if international scandals implicating China weren't enough, Huawei's founder made the narcissistic comment that "the world can't live without Huawei". In Chinese culture, that might make enough people feel compelled to comply. But, the God-fearing West will take the self-absorbed claim as a challenge, much how God took the challenge when "experts" said He couldn't sink the Titanic. Huawei just might take its place in the hall of sunken fame. No, the West does not. Not too many years from now, when a finance guru claims that a company is "too big to fail", the public will respond, "Remember Huawei."

Symphony

Encore of Revival: America, June 18, 2018

The meeting between Kim and Trump has been twisted into a bet over Iran. Canada and Iran believe Obama's Iran deal is the model. They are staking their reputations of knowing what kind of deals lead where in the fate of the Kim-Trump summit. The results will speak for themselves.

In the aftermath of Summit Kim-Trump, Trumpists see the glass as 3/4 full while while Anti-Trumpists see the glass as 3/4 empty. No sitting president has met with the leader of North Korea and received concessions. The Iran deal was arguably as bad as Anti-Trumpists claim Kim-Trump was, and Iran involved cash payments while Kim-Trump did not. The only conclusion we can draw is that people support whomever they already support, our favorites can do no wrong and our disfavored can do nothing right.

The US is polarizing, but the poles are also shifting.

Some LGBTQAYKXYZYTBA folk are moving to agree with the old Conservative position on the value of individual gun ownership. It will have a unifying effect in the United States and will ensure the eventual downfall of both the Republican and Democrat parties for having failed so miserably in their scripted prognoses of the American voter. With taxes being lower and the Federal Government making more revenue, Democrat-dependent myths about taxes are being exposed, but that doesn't indicate a nation moving toward a Republican establishment.

Symphony

Encore of Revival: America, June 18, 2018

The US is polarizing, but the poles are also shifting.

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, June 11, 2018

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1AGJwdVdR5E

The historians and experts are all hysterical about the historic meeting between Trump and Kim. They warn that JFK appeared too week while Nixon's aggression didn't intimidate. No one can win in the eyes of the hindsight expert who sees himself as the smartest guy in the room. But, history has already been made: Trump brought Warmbier home and Kim to the table. No one has done either before as a sitting president.

For the record, former President Bill Clinton did bring home Lisa Ling's younger sister from North Korea under Kim Jong-Il, but he wasn't president at the time and he wasn't dealing with the same leader. Still, Clinton deserves kudos. Presidents Clinton and Trump should have a victory cigar together at some point.

Kim Jong-Un is a kid who has never known the free world. Though there are rumors of him having attended school as a kid in Europe, it would have been just enough to gain an appetite, not an understanding. Donald J. Trump is an old, wealthy man. With talk of a McDonald's and a Trump resort in North Korea being on Kim's wish list, everyone should expect the conversation to be that of the young kid eagerly asking daddy for gifts. Trump's answer will likely be similar to his response to Senator Feinstein, "Sure we can do that..." with the added, "But, those things aren't given by eternally rich countries since no country is eternally rich. Those things are part of a world culture of people coming in and going out, but your father and grandfather wouldn't let people go in or out. If you just let people go in and out, you can get those things yourself without having to ask me."

In all likelihood, no one has ever told those things to Kim Jong-Un before, not even South Korean President Moon who began the current outreach. Everyone has his role. Moon was the charm, Trump may be the evangelist who delivers the good news no one else could. This meeting is not about a hashed-out, jig-sawed "deal"; it's about the only man in the world with both the power and the words to explain life and love to the only man in the world who can't receive those ideas from anyone else.

As Trump and Kim prepare to meet tomorrow, the main news in the Western press about China is China possibly spying on the Trump-Kim summit, that and flashbacks to Nixon and Mao. The rest focuses on the old script of news in China: economics. The SCO summit includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Russia, China, and India. They basically met to agree that they agree. Clearly, China and its neighborhood is solidifying a stark alliance to contrast morphing alliances in the West—and the West's growing alliance with some nations to China's east.

Symphony

Encore of Revival: America, June 11, 2018

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rVRS9T9U60

Reciprocal trade is the trend of everyone. Canada charges 270% tariffs on US dairy in the midst of the NAFTA "free trade" agreement, Trump threatens to charge other tariffs if trade isn't even, and Trudeau objects to reciprocal tariffs and threatens them at the same summit. If the results were allowed to speak for themselves, it would be hard to know if anyone wants free trade or reciprocal tariffs or if people just want to argue. But, the results aren't in yet. Until they are, we don't know.

Trump left a G7 summit, wishing it were a G8 summit to include Russia, making it a G6 summit while he left for his own G2 summit in Singapore with Kim Jong-Un. Trump solidified the certainty of that summit by canceling it. Reciprocal trade will almost surely be on the shelf. The Western press can't not speculate, especially with the old wives tale that investment is the primary source of economic stimulation—generally overlooking hard work, balancing free markets with regulation, and ingenuity.

The reason Russia is not at the G 7/8 summit is because it took back Crimea via referendum. Khrushchev gave Crimea to the Ukraine in 1954, which was a controversy all to its own. The Obama administration's response was to alienate Russia. Russia's main faux pas in the recovery of Crimea was flying its Russian flag over a government building taken by Russian soldiers prior to the referendum, but that received little attention. The West's opinion at the time was largely limited to who should own what territory in Ukraine and Russia.

Amazon is listening and respecting the religious needs of its Muslim workers in the Twin Cities. Fasting is hot work and the Muslim immigrants need a cooler, slower-paced work environment during Ramadan. No word in the news, however, on reciprocal trade working conditions, such as whether Amazon has negotiated for disposable barbecue celebrations for Taoists on Chinese holidays or fish Friday for Catholics who have so generously immigrated to Muslim countries.

Talk show news punetdom is losing, in life, a lion of the mind, Charles Krauthammer. When the other talking heads from the Potomac beltway and NPR niggled over opinions of the press and heads of state, Krauthammer explained the three step process of delivering a nuclear weapon and where Kim Jong-Il had made progress within those steps. He resented terms like "Washington establishment" and also objected to Trump for fighting against an establishment he deemed mythical. He represented a sobering voice of reason and calm, disagreed with almost everyone about something, politely held to his own opinions, and remained courteous in discussion. He shared a letter within the past few days that cancer is ending his life and he has only weeks to live. The world of ideas and politics already misses him.

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 21, 2018

Talk only went so far this week. I looks as if North Korea might not be dismantling its nukes, but hiding them, then threatening to close talks when exposed for this, then threatening to cancel the summit for some other list of excuses.

The big question on Kim Jong-Un backing out on the talks relates to his recent visits to China. Not that China has made any wild promises, but he feels somewhat confident in getting lippy with the US.

The big lesson was about Moon's emphasis on diplomacy vs Trump's emphasis on teeth. Diplomacy made progress in terms of leading to more diplomacy. But, actual action is a measurement of its own. So far, Trump's action has led to China losing interest in any kind of trade war and Moon's favored diplomacy seems to be leading to an undiplomatic end to diplomacy.

Things aren't over nor have we seen the last surprise. The big news of the week is that China's on the bench. Moon and Trump will meet to discuss Kim having a discussion with them in Singapore. Where's China?—announcing its surrender on trade, reflecting on past meetings with Kim, another player that doesn't really matter.

If Kim doesn't show up, Moon's populist diplomacy will prove to have failed and Trump will have the "political currency" for action against North Korea. Maybe that's what China hopes for in allowing Kim to gain false hopes in something or other—to rationalize a little retaliatory action of its own. But, if military action was China's first preference, Beijing would have already taken it.

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 14, 2018

Disassembling nuke sites prior to meeting Trump may seem like a "save of face" for Kim Jong-Un, but it's actually a statement of Trump's influence. If Trump wasn't an influence, then Kim wouldn't be doing what Trump has been demanding for a long time. No doubt, North Korea and its pro-Communist supporters in the Liberal media will twist this into "Trump not making a difference" from Trump getting what he wanted even before a meeting.

The comparison from history would be a feudal lord quickly accomplishing everything his king asked before his next royal visit. To say the king didn't make a difference would be just plain ignorant. We should expect as much.

But, Trump wants it that way. The more Trump has his name on the Korean reunification, the more China's desperate thirst for "respect" will sting. China wants everything to look like everything everywhere was China's idea, or else throw a temper tantrum. Trump's low-key silence will deny the "fight fix" and the semi-centennial tantrum will have to wait a little longer.

Pacific Daily Times

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