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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, January 7, 2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nlpe8PS5b-8

The US is working diligently to put Taiwan in the spotlight. It seems that Taiwan is being set up in the American public eye as the next Lusitania or Pearl Harbor—the punch that awakens the sleeping nation. It will be difficult, though, for an attack on foreign soil to provoke the public. That's where China seems to be playing on cue.

By wanting to sink a US Navy vessel, China would make the final push. Beijing doesn't understand American "exceptionalism"; it never has. Beijing doesn't know what freedom does to people, how much it energizes a threatened people. Americans won't respond as Chinese employees do to a boss who clears his throat; they will respond like William Wallace, just as they always do. But, when a nation isolates itself from Western free speech, that is difficult to know. We should expect China to not think that way.

Imagine China's perspective: Large US Navy carriers trouncing around the backyard, intimidating to the point that provoked China to the point we see now. To them, sinking a US Navy ship would seem like a big "shock" action because those carriers are the biggest American structure China can see. But, to American voters and soldiers, those carriers are across an ocean and are nothing compared to the size of achievements and monuments Americans see every day. So, China thinks a provocation would be an intimidation.

While it may take a US battleship to take a hit—God forbid—Taiwan will certainly be involved because that's the way the pieces are being set around the chessboard.

As for Xi Jinping and the Chinese, their resolve is absolute. Even pigs seem to be part of the attack on Taiwan.

A terminal disease specific to pigs seems to have swept Chinese pig farms. Taiwan has been going to great lengths to prevent Chinese pork from entering Taiwan for this very reason. This week, a dead pig with the disease floated ashore a Taiwanese island that sits just off China's coast. Panic is starting to set in throughout Taiwan—that a pork crisis could crash Taiwan's economy, cause the pro-US president to resign, making the perfect opportunity for China to invade. That's how the theories go, anyway.

The concern among Taiwanese is exactly the kind of response China anticipates from a "shock and awe" action against America. But, Americans are different than that, having both the "Wallace Complex" and a Congress-backed law that would compel a retaliation. Taiwanese have tasted some level of freedom, making the Taiwanese response as unpredictable as Taiwanese politics.

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Encore of Revival: America, January 7, 2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDlzKnZxHEs

Article IV Section 4 of the US Constitution states that the US government must "protect" each State from "invasion". It goes on to include protection from "domestic violence", but that requires action from the Legislature, unless the Legislature can't convene, then the Executive branch must take action.

It does not say, "The US government may protect the people if it wants to. And, if the Legislature refuses to, then the President must allow anyone and everyone to just destroy whatever they want to." It also does not say, "...unless they really, really want to come into the country, and that's why they're invading." But, that's how House Democrats would like to have it interpreted.

What's happening at the southern border is an "invasion"—people from the outside coming in by force. The Constitution does not specify that the invasion must be a sanctioned, deputized, funded military force operating at the behest of a recognized State. Any and every kind of invasion must be stopped, by Legislature or otherwise.

The Legislature is only required for situations of domestic violence. But, even then, if the Legislature can "convene"—and it can—but disobeys this Constitutional requirement, that could be cause for an action of impeachment because they would be in violation of their oaths of office, to support the Constitution. Then, the power to stop domestic violence would fall to the Executive branch, namely the president.

Trump is well within his powers to declare an emergency and take executive action, but he might be Constitutionally required to begin impeachment proceedings against Congress if the border situation is regarded as domestic, not an "invasion" from non-US citizens. So, claiming that Congress is needed to build the wall would actually be an argument to indite Congress.

As for citizenship by birth, that applies only to children of parents "subject to the jurisdiction thereof". Amendment XIV does not say, "Anyone can run from the police, sneak into the country, have a baby, then demand citizenship for that baby." But, that's how Congressional Democrats would like to have it interpreted.

The US is about to rediscover its Constitution, the document that united our nation at its founding. That could redefine the entire playing field of elections in the future.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 31, 2018

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5Gv7F2e-6Y

China and the US—more specifically Xi and Trump—are talking more and more about talking more and more about trade. China has drafted legislation to propose making China a fair country to outsiders. What a great proposed Christmas gift, just before the New Year.

In light of everything, China seems to be making other concessions to US demands. But, one issue lingers in the back-of-the-room shadows: Taiwan. The US is bound by near-treaty to defend Taiwan if China were to invade. And, Taiwan just keeps taking pot shots. And, China doesn't seem to notice the conflict on the US side of the talks.

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Encore of Revival: America, December 31, 2018

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uzi47NNc4Ng

Jerome Corsi is after the FBI family for going after him and his family. Mueller wanted to delay the hearing of Corsi's lawsuit against the FBI, basically arguing that the shutdown had shutdown his investigation—except that it hasn't. Trump stayed in Washington over the holiday shutdown, missing his family in Florida, while Nanci Pelosi and Maxine Waters went on vacation in Hawaii and the Bahamas, respectively—and they say Trump doesn't understand politics. The stock market was said to be in the tank, and it was "all Trump's fault"—until it it wasn't either anymore.

The biggest news—of things that actually happened "new"—was Kevin Spacey. Apparently Underwood is back from the dead. The character assassination machine has systematically picked off anyone in the national spotlight who didn't step in line—until that didn't work against Trump—then, it simply didn't work. But, now that it's going up against one of the few actual actors in Hollywood—Spacey—along with Conservatives like Jerome Corsi and Dennis Prager, that machine itself might just blow a transformer and light up the national sky more than Con Edison lit up New York.

It looks like Kevin Spacy is about to "Underwood" Hollywood, and that will only be the beginning.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 24, 2018

China detains two Canadians with remark and in the wake of a single Huawei executive's arrest. Given the surfacing connections the executive's family had to Mao, China likely views the value of arrested people as equally balanced; the West merely views China as having committed three criminal acts.

Huawei has gotten into more and more trouble the more it has been in the spotlight. Now, Europe even has its doubts. China's sources of money and influences are drying up more and more.

But, an opinion article from Bloomberg invariably proves that some car makers managed to keep their technology out of the hands of China—mainly by keeping it out of China until it was out of date. Moreover, China has made proposals within its government to allow foreign companies to keep their technology secret. So, that should end any and every doubt about what a wonderful place China is for any and all manufacturing.

On the military side, China is announcing that it is finally pursuing the same quiet submarine technologies that the US, Russia, and India are also pursuing. So, that's it. The West should give up because, after all, China is going to win.

The US, however, is in a different position. If China were to initiate a conflict with the US, say by attempting to assert control over Taiwan "by force if necessary", China might not get as much help from its rumored spy partner, Russia. Taiwan is unlike Crimea, which held a referendum with overwhelming favor to return to Russia. And, with the US out of Russian-interested territories, like Syria and Afghanistan, there is little Russia would have to object to in the US following its own law to defend Taiwan, already on the books. A recessed Congress is certainly willing.

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Encore of Revival: America, December 24, 2018

The government shutdown is good for Trump and good for the wall. He said what he meant and he meant he wasn't bluffing. Good, old fashion follow-through is one of DC's lost virtues. If the current budget isn't passed by the start of the new 116th Congress on January 3, then it will die. It already has approval of the White House and has passed the House. The quickest way to end the government shutdown is for the Senate to pass the bill.

Ultimately this is a game of "chicken". Either way, we should expect whining everyday.  The key to Congress surviving a government shutdown is the theater of talking everyday as if "today's the day" that the government will reopen. It's somewhat akin to the act that Democrats and drive-by news anchors put on about how "today's the day" when they will find the "silver bullet" to stop Trump.

There is no such silver bullet, not even today.

The main actors rising above the dust are the Kushners. Jared and Ivanka are drafting deals and growing coalitions, no matter their father's opponents. Their progress should be bigger news.

So, over Christmas, the worms of Capitol Hill take pot shots at each other and the president is referred to as a child for sticking to his promises, just as Clinton did when he vetoed the budget. One of the best kept secrets about government shutdowns is that the government doesn't actually shut down. To some, that's a disappointment. Even Mueller's investigation continues, but the Supreme Court might stuff coal in his stocking. The holiday season has many more surprises yet to come.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 17, 2018

While China would attempt to send the US out of its backyard by shocking the US with an invasion of Taiwan, that motive in itself would not be enough to push China to war. Beijing believes that controlling more territory is the solution to current problems with its own territory. In urban terms, it would be like believing the reason you have problems in your home is because you don't own the home nextdoor—you deserve to own it, after all; so take it, "by force if necessary." That part of Chinese culture—needing to occupy more surroundings in order to solve problems at home, rather than after solving problems at home—is the part of the Beijing mindset that will actually push China to invade. The time of the invasion will come when Beijing believes that solving its problems at home—specifically with Western press and free speech—can wait no longer. Then, China will invade Taiwan while genuinely believing that all of China's problems within its current borders will thus vanish over night.

But, the US doesn't think the way Beijing thinks the US thinks. While many Americans will be surprised by China's invasion of Taiwan, Beijing will be surprised even more by the American electorate's response to support recompense against China.

In Chinese media, a Chinese Air Force colonel's recommendation that PLA Navy ships ram US Navy ships is not an actual recommendation for strategy as much as it is an attempt at repulsive rhetoric. Chinese culture presumes that a public suggestion is an indirect warning with no intention of follow-through, and because it has no intention of follow-through, it is therefore a "powerful-polite" way of attempting to tell the US to leave. That is how cultural, indirect communication with the Chinese works. Though it is possible that the Chinese might become enraged enough to follow this action by ramming US ships at sea, it would take less rage for China to decide to invade Taiwan. From Beijing's view, unlike retaking the well-deserved Taiwan, ramming a US ship would be an actual assault. If the Chinese-American war begins with a rammed ship, that would indicate a very angry China.

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Encore of Revival, America, December 17, 2018

Every accusation against Trump so far sets a precedent to indite James Comey for refusing to prosecute Hillary for worse crimes. Trump's actual crime was unwritten, that he threatened the comfortable cash cow machine run by a parasitic establishment accurately referred to as "the swamp". These increasingly petty, evermore numerous, and parabolically dramatic accusations will not end in turning votes against Trump, but toward him. The only turnings against will be the masses revolting against the establishment for its attacks against Trump and a revolt against the media that reports the attacks as "fair". The public will see this as quite unfair because of greater priorities going unmentioned, including a multi-million dollar hush-slush fund in Congress.

So, the swamp's machine attacked a dirty lawyer and sentenced him to prison. Now, that lawyer has suddenly turned to saint because he wants to get out of jail by speaking against his own client—a president hated by the same swamp. Can a lawyer that the DOJ has worked so hard to imprison as a sleeze bag suddenly be deemed a credible witness without any ill motives? Connect the dots. The swamp always wants everything both ways.

The swamp is indeed ramping up the assault against Trump, but not because of any new position of strength; the swamp is on attack because the swamp is desperate. What we're about to see in the next two years will be Kavanaugh all over again, only this time it will push Trump to re-election, better than before.

Then we have the Brexitexit. Questions needs to be asked about what connections nay-voters in Parliament have to Brussels. British politics work differently from American. Prime Minister Chamberlain allowed Hitler to rise in power while Parliament kept Winston away. Once the feckless mess grew intolerable, the king had to intervene. After Winston won the war—with the help of some extremely profitable former colonies in America that the Britons claim they carelessly misplaced—the Britons ousted Winston after his warnings that Russia was a rising danger. No doubt many in Great Britain will forget their frustration with past attempts to unite Europe, or the recent attempt—the EU—in squandering British tax dollars on socialist promises to solve self-made problems, such as more recently seen in France.

One of the few wise prime ministers, Margret Thatcher, said, "The trouble with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money." Now, the EU has run out of the Britons' money and "will allow" the Britons to stay in if they want—and some Britons are actually talking about staying in. The American way—which defeated the Nazis for the British—would be for British Parliament to pass its own terms first, giving the EU the ultimatum. If May wants to keep her job, she should tell Parliament, "Give me whatever terms you accept, then I will defend them before Brussels." But, that would require the strong spine of a cowgirl, not the tender skin of true gentlemen. There are many smart people in Great Britain, just not any that we can see from the decisions being made right now.

The way things look, America will need to come to the rescue of our British brothers yet again. Given America's improving situation, it looks like we'll be able.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 10, 2018

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBKrheGIxY4

The "Huawei arrest" sends yet another a irritatingly mixed message to China. China believes that a "strong response" concerning Taiwan will convince the US to back away from support for Taiwan. Conveniently for China, the recent provincial elections in Taiwan seem encouraging and Beijing has reached out to Taiwanese cities that just elected pro-Beijing party candidates.

Premier William Lai intends to resign at the "right time". Could that time be what is necessary so he can run for president? Taiwanese politics are quite unpredictable. All we should expect is a series of surprises before, during, and after 2020. Considering where things stand in the world, we must remember that there is no way the UK could be on Taiwan's side, especially since the UK has concerns about Taiwanese fisherman illegally killing dolphins as shark bait. With opportunity seeming to open, and the increased possibility of the loud-spoken, pro-independence William Lai to run for office, Beijing may be feeling put in an ever tightening situation that compels action.

As concerned as the Chinese are about security, they are far more concerned about insult. Without any sympathy from Western news audiences, an extradition of the Huawei executive from Canada to the US could push China over the edge. China believes that its horrific past justifies its conduct today. It is only a matter of time before Beijing decides that a strike against Taiwan, supported by cooperation with Taiwanese city governments, would send the US out of the region. Taiwan may not be seen by Beijing as the irritant of tensions, but the solution to them. The US might have a different opinion.

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Encore of Revival: America, December 10, 2018

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHQ-tTArRUE

The theory presented on September 10 and November 19 proved useful enough to predict White House Chief of Staff John Kelly's departure. No one announces in advance that someone is leaving—before the departure, without also announcing a replacement. Nobody cares about a boss whose boss already announced would be leaving. That's how to cripple any malevolent powers of an administrator that can't be quickly unplugged, but needs to go—and do so without raising suspicion that the administrator did anything wrong. Even in his dismissal—not a "retirement"—Kelly fits the bill as the author of the "New York Times essay", right down to getting tossed out in a way that no one would suspect a darned thing.

France is in trouble. The president who snubbed Trump has fallen into disfavor with his own people. This largely comes down to grandiose promises made by socialist agendas that everyone should have known could not deliver because of foresight rooted in hindsight. Socialism never delivers anything but what we see in France now. As for ado about Brexit, there's no point in worrying so much since the queen can decide anyway, if she wants to. That's what the British always tell Americans is so wonderful about the UK's constitutional monarchy. But, acting like this is a problem helps keep the British press afloat.

A Trump campaign payment is now being compared to a situation with 2004 Democratic candidate John Edwards. But, that has three major holes in its boat: 1. The accusation encircles alleged campaign finance violations surrounding the Trump organization's lawyer, Cohen, whose job it was to give legal advice; Trump is not a lawyer, Edwards was. Can a lawyer be witness against the client he advised, or secretly recorded? 2. The Mueller investigation sought to understand whether there was wrongful involvement with Russia and Trump. The Fourth Amendment limits the scope of search and seizure to a probable cause and any seized items must be specified by the warrant in advance. By starting with an investigation between Trump and Russia, but ending with a campaign finance accusation against a candidate accused by the lawyer who advised him, this has gone well beyond the scope that the Fourth Amendment was intended to limit. If courts allow this, it shows how much our legal justice system has wandered from the Constitution. 3. The electorate will want a good explanation for why Hillary wasn't treated this way. The best reason so far would be that the courts have been usurped as a cudgel for political rivals. It's not Trump who needs to be worried about an indictment; it's the legal justice system itself that is about to go on trial.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 3, 2018

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwSy14mS9k0

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-Wen apologizing after a mid-term defeat at the provincial level will not demonstrate strength on her part, but she shows respect and stability in maintaining her appointees and policy toward China. Having not stood her ground on information about proposal that would have set Taiwan's team name at the Olympics in Japan as "Taiwan", instead of "Taipei", she lost important support from the Formosan Association for Public Affairs, a group that seeks to have Taiwan internationally recognized as an independent nation.

Taiwan's premier, William Lai, does stand for Taiwanese independence, held remarkable popularity in his reelection as mayor, and is the shoe-in candidate if he were to run in 2020 instead of Tsai. Tsai's re-election is uncertain. What happens will depend on Taiwanese politics, which are too adolescent to not be surprised by. Main matters at stake include Taiwan developing faster responses to correct disinformation given to the public and a focus on better quality with internal governance and infrastructure. Interestingly, information and governance—not China itself—are at the heart of resistance to China.

If Taiwan declares independence from China, or takes too many steps to join international bodies like the UN, as Beijing has stated, we could be looking at all out war. Some in the political "news-o-sphere" call Taiwan a "flashpoint". China hangs onto hopes of retaking Taiwan like King John's suicidal siege of Rochester Castle. All the US does is provoke.

The latest provocation came late last week when Japan opened the path to retrofitting "helicopter carriers" into fixed-wing aircraft carriers. Japan looks to acquire 142 F35s—42 As and now 100 Bs; the UK eyes 138, about half of them to go to the Royal Navy. There are too many high-tech American aircraft in China's backyard for China's comfort. And, the US did two more sail-bys—one near China's man-made islands, the other through the Taiwan Strait. China lobbed another "demarche" protest with Washington, presuming the action to be "provocative".

Then came the US-China 90 day cease fire between Trump and Xi at the G20 this past weekend. A lot can happen in 90 days, whether politically, economically, or militarily.

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Encore of Revival: America, December 3, 2018

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1npPzJly1ZY

Former President George Herbert Walker Bush, the 41st president, is dead at 94.

While the Bush family and the nation mourn, politics continue as usual.

The "Mark Meadows Plan" for Congressional Republicans foreshadows political posturing of the next two years: Democrats will be a powerless foil supporting the re-election of Trump. Just how Democrats harassed the Regan administration with the Olly North investigations, harassed Supreme Justices Kavanaugh and Thomas with sexual harassment allegations—just how the House Republicans harassed Clinton with the Kenneth Star -led investigation—so will this Democratic House irritate the electorate over the next two years. Even if the House impeaches the president as it did Clinton, there isn't foreseeable traction in the 52-seat strong Republican Senate.

The latest "shock and faux" campaign from the press attempts to scare readers with the notion that Russia did not exercise leverage over Trump—but they could have—because Trump decided not to build a project in Russia that everyone knew about him not building when he would have been allowed to build it anyway. The reason, as this latest "wow" campaign goes, is because Trump is now reported to be the center of the Mueller investigation. Really? That's news?

The next two years will be as entertaining as watching a cat who thinks it's a god, but just can't figure out why it can't get anyone to obey.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 26, 2018

Taiwan held something akin to a "mid-term" election this past Saturday. The people revolted against the previous revolt. When electing the DPP two years ago, the people were fed up with the capitulation policies of Ma. Now, they are fed up with bad management of infrastructure, also an "establishment culture" surfacing in what should be the "opposition party", among other grievances. Taiwan's government cautioned China to wait and see how the election affects cross-strait policy before jumping to any conclusions—because they think China can't figure that out.

China's government and the Western press are going head to head. China held the American children of an estranged father and money laundering defendant. The New York Times made sure to plaster the picture of the young adult brother and sister at the top of the story. Exploiting children to sway outcomes just isn't fair.

But, it didn't stop at children. The New York Times also posted about cheap labor building Chinese AI. And, Forbes published an article with a graph that makes it look like China's economy has bottomed out. The battle between China and its great and powerful foe—the Western press—rages on. China is at an unfair disadvantage, but presses forward fearlessly and valiantly.

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Encore of Revival: America, November 26, 2018

The US faces politics within and without. President Trump refers to judges appointed by a president; Chief Justice Roberts rebuts, effectively, that judges aren't owned by presidents. Trump never said they were, he was referring to who appointed them. Who makes an appointment is relevant, even in a court trial. Unless the question, "Who appointed you?" has never been answered by a plaintiff or witness in court, Roberts' misunderstood. It would be best that the chief justice accurately understand the commander-in-chief's "original intent". As for Roberts' claim that courts are impartial, that certainly is what we all hope for. Trump's predication is that perfection is a humanly unreachable destination, which is why we need courts in the first place.

At the border, Mexico allowed the so-named "caravan", now reported at over 8k people, to march through its country seeking immediate help, instant protection, urgent safety, emergency respite from political persecution—or some other timely need that is required to receive "asylum". Asylum is not a fun thing to receive and often means never being allowed to leave the country once inside. Edward Snowden wasn't allowed to walk from Hong Kong to Moscow, picking and choosing which country he could seek asylum from; he had to get it right where he was, before leaving the international terminal. If anyone in that caravan can prove that the kinds of protection an asylum specifically grants could not be provided by the many countries they marched through for many weeks, then they should be granted an asylum. They would also need to prove that they would never return to their home country to visit family, no matter what. That's a tall order. But, if they can do it, they deserve it, but only if.

The Russianewsgategate scandal scandal is still barking and honking, predicting drama and awe, while quietly reminding audiences that there will probably be no indictment. 'Tis no more than theater at this point, but an act that needs to be kept up so that the cast won't be accused of having been pretending the whole time. After Kavanaugh's unfair trial dubbed a "hearing", avoiding the appearance of fakery in DC theater is important these days.

Whatever is going on in the US is a lot better than what's going on in Europe. We are witnessing ancient, Biblical prophecy fulfilled in our day: The winged lion of Daniel 7:4 had the eagle's wings removed and has now been given the sane mind of a human. While eagle's wings internationally represent America's mascot, the lion represents Britain's. While Prime Minister May gave her speech about the Brexit status, she stood behind the crest of Britain's lion. It is clear from her speech—by leaving the EU, Britain is no longer part of the madness festering in Europe.

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