Tag Archives: South China Sea

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 16, 2016

China and the US rattled sabers over Taiwan. Arguably, they smacked sheathed sabers. A US Navy ship, USS William P. Lawrence, sailed past one of China’s military-stocked man-made islands with two Chinese jet escorts chasing it away. Chinese and Washington generals want to increase freedom of navigation and communication. Washington wants Taiwan to spend more on asymmetric military defense against China.

The US is concerned about China’s missiles preventing it from intervening should China invade Taiwan. Guam and Okinawa are supposedly at risk and could be denied access to Taiwan’s defense. This concern has activated a strong response from the US and Taiwan to prepare responses. The new US electromagnetic railgun is approaching its days or early deployment and already has active prototypes. It can travel 7 times the speed of sound, uses no explosive propellants, costs less money, allows transporters to carry more ammunition, can penetrate steel “like a hot knife through butter”, receives satellite and other guidance, and can be used as both an assault and anti-missile defense system.

So it would seem, just as China claims freedom of navigation in the South China Sea has given Beijing reason to erect islands, China has given the US the excuse it needs to deploy technology that blurs the lines between science and science fiction.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 9, 2016

China is angry. It’s always easy to tell when someone makes lightly veiled threats in the forms of “advice” or “caution”. These comments came from a Chinese diplomat, that pressure in the South China Sea could “rebound” like a “coiled spring”, depending on where it is “aimed” by the US.

In his analogy, he didn’t seem to elaborate on how an engineering culture explains US “aiming” (intention) having a direct effect on spring-coil physics. Usually, one aims with a sling, not a spring; and their is no pressure, only sudden impact.

Chinese easily make grand contradictions in their implications when they don’t say most of what they think. This is part of the East-Asian “implication-driven” culture. The problem is that they rarely see the implications of making contradictory implications—the problem being that it is incredibly obvious to Westerners skilled in recognizing things at face-value.

Putting his conflicting analogy on the couch, this likely indicates he feels more frustration than his Asian culture tells him is appropriate to express. According to Reuters:

China has been particularly angered by what it sees as interference by the United States, whose military has carried out “freedom of navigation” patrols through the sea.

It is evermore clear what is happening: The US is patrolling with sling in hand as always. Beijing feels “pressure” from the continuance of peaceful patrols. China behaves as if it knows something the US does not.

Between the fighter and the bull, we know who is in control. And we know who is angry and who is indifferent in the arena of Southeast Asia.

Kim Jong-Un just became Chairman of his political party, in addition to being the Great Successor of the DPRK. The party held a rare meeting, the first in 36 years, where he observed, or properly, “chaired”. There appear to be no reports of whether the meeting was a great success.

Taiwan’s soon-to-be-ousted, lame duck Education minister says that the controversial national high school curriculum—opposed for rewriting history as to murder and slaughter under the direction of KMT-Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-Sheck—says that the curriculum has no problems. He considers the curriculum to be part of his legacy. So it is.

Interesting things are happening in London. Events of the Atlantic will echo in the Pacific.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, April 25, 2016

Northern Korea launched a missile that travelled 1/10 the distance it needs to. Pyongyang considered it a “success”.

China has come to a consensus about it’s activity in the South China Sea. The consensus did not include all ASEAN nations. And, the US continues to disagree with the consensus.

The City Council Speaker of a southern Taiwan city, Tainan, was found guilty of “vote buying”. This was the second guilty verdict. He was relieved of his speakership the next day, placing control of City Council back in the hands of the majority party, same as the popular Mayor William Lai. Former Speaker Lee is a member of the KMT, which recently lost the national elections for the legislature and the presidency. With Lee removed from the Speakership, Mayor Lai will no longer protest City Council meetings, removing over a year of city-wide gridlock.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, February 29, 2016

A Chinese official, Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi (王毅), has become the first to recognize Taiwan’s Constitution. He says that the president elect, Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), should “abide by it”. Tsai has promised to declassify documents about the 228 Massacre, which the Taiwanese observed in memory this past weekend. The three day weekend of Feb 28 (2/28) stands as a blight on the face of Chiang Kai-shek, who founded the recently defeated KMT-Nationalist party and slaughtered 10,000 to 30,000 people in Taiwan during the time of his flight from the revolting Communists. Statues of the “Hitler of Taiwan” were defaced throughout Taiwan over the weekend. Officials are “not yet” pressing charges.

While Taiwan exposes more truth and topples statues of tyrants, China is finding vengeance on booksellers. The times are ripe with contrast. Nations in the region see anything but peace in our time.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, February 22, 2016

China is deploying weapons. The US is responding with pressure—mostly economic, some political, always involving alliances. Money and trade are atop the list.

China’s unusual manipulation of its money is documented and under more scrutiny than ever.

According to Chinese State-run media, China has weapons on disputed islands by right. According to the government, US concern over militarizing those islands is “hype”. Still, Asean is watching the Pacific and so is Bloomberg.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, February 1, 2016

Age of provocation. China warned everyone, this week. Soros had better not declare war on Chinese currency—or else. Taiwan had better not do a lot of things. The US had better not do a lot of things. Basically, the world “had better not”.

The Pacific conflict is reaching the point where China expects a Wold v China scenario. Whatever China is doing to make enemies is so powerful that not even Obama can stay low key—whether he wants to or not. Beijing’s “magnetic” personality is drawing all guns to point east.

Taiwan is beginning its political transition, not without its own rumors. The DPP opposition took the legislature today. The new president won’t be sworn in for a few months. But with the vast majority already in power in the legislature and local governments, the lame duck, Ma, is strung up by his webbing. All anyone can do about Taiwan is quack; the president, president-elect, and even Beijing.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, January 5, 2016

No one is happier today than Beijing. More hoops for law-abiding gun owners to hop through means an easier cakewalk if China invaded it’s number one enemy. Without the logistic ability to invade the US, all of China’s antics in the Pacific, including landing the first plane on their man-made military islands, are dead in the water. Fortunately for Beijing, Obama is doing his part and with more persuasive words.

Perhaps Beijing could learn from Obama. Never argue with people who buy ink by the barrel. Apprehending Hong Kong publishers who speak out against you isn’t exactly the way to convince their readers that you don’t over-reach. While Obama introduced more background checks on guns, Beijing might consider background checks on books.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 21, 2015

Tensions intensify in the China seas. Beijing knows it. Washington knows it. Everyone knows it.

Japan delayed a US cooperation step-up due to popularity issues. The Japanese public is tired of the US war machine in their back yard, however increasingly necessary Chinese patterns make such cooperation. Perhaps Japan suffers from US-imosed affluenza. Japan’s Diet is holding off until the public “figures out” that cooperation with the US is a good idea. Do they know something we don’t? What exactly is it that will happen to convince the Japanese voters to change their minds? The Diet seems to think that we’ll find out soon enough.

Taiwan’s historic election is fast approaching. Debate formats have been agreed to. The new likely party is recognizing progress from the sinking establishment. China’s answer to a new political power remains unknown.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 14, 2015

As elections push forward in Taiwan and Malaysia, China faces it’s own political issue: Military reform.

The report from Reuters demonstrates two things. Firstly, we see that China’s military does, in fact, need reform. This is evidenced by the 300k military jobs cut since September. With an obviously larger shakeup coming, it is clear that the change is necessary, given China’s implied military status quo.

Secondly, we learn that China needs to sell the need for reform to its own military, thereby implying that, while the reform is necessary, many remain yet to be convinced that it is.

Generally speaking, growing assertiveness while implementing reform where there is no current invasion underway is typically an attempt to spread oneself too thin. This not only relates to the failing political establishment in Taiwan and Malaysia, but generic maritime strategy in the Pacific.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 2, 2015

In pre-WWII terms, last week, North Korea tried a “Hitler” in Southern seas and got sent home running. This week, the US did a sail by and China pulled a “France”. It’s clear who’s boss of the Pacific.

At least that’s what the Pentagon will think.

China’s response, though proof that it lacks strength, neither proves weakness nor will. Chinese are calculating and polite. Chinese conflicts do not escalate slowly; the pressure builds slowly, then the conflict erupts faster than American’s can blink.

But there is more going on with indirect communication, and Beijing is learning, for better or worse. In all likelihood, Beijing expected the US to react like most Chinese do to new power’s assertion. Specifically, they expected either silence or some kind of neighboring buildup. Remember, China is the land of the Great Wall. They built the islands with a fleet, they probably expected the US to confront them either with a fleet or not at all.  · · · →

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 12, 2015

China didn’t make any friends this week. Beijing spies on every street corner with a service literally named “Skynet”.

The Pentagon wants a strong Taiwan. The US Navy plans to challenge China’s man-made military airport-seaport islands. Most people don’t know exactly where the islands are since they aren’t listed on many maps. But if you happen to have a recent Chinese passport, the islands would fall within the nine-dash line, along with Taiwan, parts of the Philippines, and a number of other territories we thought belonged to other countries.

Local Pacific politics are another big question mark this week. Malaysia’s PM is having “royal” trouble, literally. Taiwan’s failing KMT-Nationalist party seems to be cannibalizing their own Presidential front-runner. Who knows what will happen or even if it will matter.

Old guard and Establishment parties are facing the masses en masse. It’s not just happening in the Pacific, but also in the Americas and Europe.  · · · →

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Cadence of Conflict: September 7, 2015

China’s pushing into the water. Beijing celebrated America’s victory over Japan in 1945. The Communists who took over China four years later seemed to take much of the credit. And, they are still angry that, even after 66 years, they don’t control Taiwan. A “victim of its own propaganda”, Beijing believes Taiwan doesn’t want to fly the Communist flag from lack of “communication” rather than, perhaps, Communism being communicated all to well. So, Communist China’s PLAN (People’s Liberation Army Navy) is going to Alaska where Russia has more interests than China. So, is China a victim of it’s own propaganda—or of someone else working behind the scene?

China also seems to be having trouble on the money front. Even as its currency plummets, the world’s currency doesn’t. G-20 only loses trust in China.

Respect for Russia, however, is unchanged. Russia is playing some of its own games that will echo in the Pacific waters.  · · · →

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, June 29, 2015

China’s economy is tanking if you look at sales reports, or, no, wait, it’s going up if you ask the Chinese. China is also losing in the battle for Vietnam’s alliance: Moscow is now buddy-buddy with Hanoi.

Taiwan’s internal politics are all over the map with a presidential election schedule running near-parallel to the US 2016 election. Both countries look like they will elect a leader that wants to “deal smart” with China—against Beijing’s de facto policy of demanding that the world allow itself to be annexed by Beijing. Beijing has already rejected what looms in 2016 like a slave owner rejecting a slave’s desire to “normalize relations”.

Speaking of slavery, China is now an expert on human rights, lecturing the US. It is almost comedic, not because of the gross difference in numbers, but because China has so consistently told the US that countries should mind their own business. It seems Beijing has reversed that precedent with a new one.  · · · →

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, June 15, 2015

Tension and thought. China plans to dispatch drones to watch disputed islands in the Pacific. The US is set to introduce a new war ship. Oliver Stone says viewing China’s activity as dangerous is dangerous. A co-founder of Qunar (Chinese travel agency giant) says it’s never been a better time to start a company in China, as long as you’re not a “foreigner”, then it gets more complicated.

Pundits seem to be making headlines more than policymakers. Other than a few hums and crackles, all quiet on the surface this week. Sometimes a large ebb in the tide indicates an approaching tsunami.

China

Chinese military considers using drones to patrol seas contested by Japan

China plans to build coast guard base near Senkaku Islands: sources

China says its anti-artillery radar, to be used near Myanmar border, can lock onto enemy cannons in eight seconds

There’s Never Been A Better Time To Start A Company In China: Qunar Co-Founder

Oliver Stone warns US about danger of seeing China as a threat

…He commented in HK while finishing his new movie, Snowden, supporting China’s actions in the region.  · · · →

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