Tag Archives: Philippines

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 15, 2016

While Taiwan accepts yet another slow-delivery weapons deal, one of the slowest to date, China continues to build on the ocean to face off against the United States. It’s pure war strategy, East to West.

The argument goes that China carefully times its strategic “stepping on toes”. The next purported toe will be the site of the next man-made islet, deep within Philippine water and economic defense zone. China, according to reports of anonymous sources, plans that these toe steps occur after G20 and before the US election. This is where Beijing’s miscalculation shows.

Supposedly, during the US election season, Americans will be distracted with Trump v Clinton headlines and won’t have the time to worry about what China does in the Philippine’s back yard pool. However, this overlooks the topics surrounding Trump and Clinton, specifically the long history that both have with China and that opinion about either candidate is largely shaped by China’s actions.

If and when China steps in it in the Philippines, that “when” would serve China’s shrewdness better if postponed until after the election, lest China give American’s the excuse they need to elect the candidate most outspoken against China. Beijing’s timing would be more respected from one adversary to another if the Philippine islet reclaiming began after the US election and before the inauguration—after it’s too late for the American people to change their minds. But, once again, Beijing is likely to demonstrate that, while it has the courage to stand up to the US, it doesn’t have the listening ability to know the very enemies it chooses.

Beijing wants a deal with the Philippines. They know how to make a deal when they want to. What transpires over the coming months will be as foreseeable as it is by choice for all involved.

In times when China wants to dominate the water, Michael Phelps proved otherwise, for the third time in a row.

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Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, June 20, 2016

Last week, Taiwan’s president forgot the law that his own political party created as a means of controlling the other political party, that won in a landslide. The Japanese seem to have a better memory. Abuse of international agreements has irritated Okinawans for over half of a century. A recent murder committed by US personnel at the base in Japan initiated more protests and more are anticipated.

The US and Taiwan Navies also anticipate responses from China. Taiwan announced 12 new vessels, pushing the program with large amounts of PR. There will even be an open house in Kaohsiung where the public can learn all about the beefing-up of Taiwan’s Navy. The US rescheduled a Stinin-Reagan sail-by off the Philippines, hoping to make waves, weeks before Hague rules on China’s nine-dash line. The US made no attempt to hid that the exercise was rescheduled early, just to make a point.

Hong Kong’s booksellers also remember. A recently detained and released seller led protests in Hong Kong. Unlike all other territories with public displays this week, Hong Kong does not supply its own military and there seems to be little-to-no effort from Hong Kongers to request any changes to this. It will be interesting to contrast any results between the protests in Hong Kong with the protests in Japan.

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Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, April 25, 2016

Northern Korea launched a missile that travelled 1/10 the distance it needs to. Pyongyang considered it a “success”.

China has come to a consensus about it’s activity in the South China Sea. The consensus did not include all ASEAN nations. And, the US continues to disagree with the consensus.

The City Council Speaker of a southern Taiwan city, Tainan, was found guilty of “vote buying”. This was the second guilty verdict. He was relieved of his speakership the next day, placing control of City Council back in the hands of the majority party, same as the popular Mayor William Lai. Former Speaker Lee is a member of the KMT, which recently lost the national elections for the legislature and the presidency. With Lee removed from the Speakership, Mayor Lai will no longer protest City Council meetings, removing over a year of city-wide gridlock.

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Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, January 5, 2016

No one is happier today than Beijing. More hoops for law-abiding gun owners to hop through means an easier cakewalk if China invaded it’s number one enemy. Without the logistic ability to invade the US, all of China’s antics in the Pacific, including landing the first plane on their man-made military islands, are dead in the water. Fortunately for Beijing, Obama is doing his part and with more persuasive words.

Perhaps Beijing could learn from Obama. Never argue with people who buy ink by the barrel. Apprehending Hong Kong publishers who speak out against you isn’t exactly the way to convince their readers that you don’t over-reach. While Obama introduced more background checks on guns, Beijing might consider background checks on books.

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Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 14, 2015

As elections push forward in Taiwan and Malaysia, China faces it’s own political issue: Military reform.

The report from Reuters demonstrates two things. Firstly, we see that China’s military does, in fact, need reform. This is evidenced by the 300k military jobs cut since September. With an obviously larger shakeup coming, it is clear that the change is necessary, given China’s implied military status quo.

Secondly, we learn that China needs to sell the need for reform to its own military, thereby implying that, while the reform is necessary, many remain yet to be convinced that it is.

Generally speaking, growing assertiveness while implementing reform where there is no current invasion underway is typically an attempt to spread oneself too thin. This not only relates to the failing political establishment in Taiwan and Malaysia, but generic maritime strategy in the Pacific.

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Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 2, 2015

In pre-WWII terms, last week, North Korea tried a “Hitler” in Southern seas and got sent home running. This week, the US did a sail by and China pulled a “France”. It’s clear who’s boss of the Pacific.

At least that’s what the Pentagon will think.

China’s response, though proof that it lacks strength, neither proves weakness nor will. Chinese are calculating and polite. Chinese conflicts do not escalate slowly; the pressure builds slowly, then the conflict erupts faster than American’s can blink.

But there is more going on with indirect communication, and Beijing is learning, for better or worse. In all likelihood, Beijing expected the US to react like most Chinese do to new power’s assertion. Specifically, they expected either silence or some kind of neighboring buildup. Remember, China is the land of the Great Wall. They built the islands with a fleet, they probably expected the US to confront them either with a fleet or not at all.  · · · →

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Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, June 15, 2015

Tension and thought. China plans to dispatch drones to watch disputed islands in the Pacific. The US is set to introduce a new war ship. Oliver Stone says viewing China’s activity as dangerous is dangerous. A co-founder of Qunar (Chinese travel agency giant) says it’s never been a better time to start a company in China, as long as you’re not a “foreigner”, then it gets more complicated.

Pundits seem to be making headlines more than policymakers. Other than a few hums and crackles, all quiet on the surface this week. Sometimes a large ebb in the tide indicates an approaching tsunami.

China

Chinese military considers using drones to patrol seas contested by Japan

China plans to build coast guard base near Senkaku Islands: sources

China says its anti-artillery radar, to be used near Myanmar border, can lock onto enemy cannons in eight seconds

There’s Never Been A Better Time To Start A Company In China: Qunar Co-Founder

Oliver Stone warns US about danger of seeing China as a threat

…He commented in HK while finishing his new movie, Snowden, supporting China’s actions in the region.  · · · →

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Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, April 13, 2015

China’s new bank (AIIB, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) dominated headlines this week. AIIB’s history suggests China wants infrastructure money without being told to clean up the environment, respect human rights, or play nice with their hope-to-be soon-to-be-annexed neighbors. The US could have jumped-in and controlled AIIB, but didn’t, as if the US anticipates that AIIB may lose money after, say, a conflict in the Pacific.

The bank seems to be a line in the sand for US allies in the Pacific, but not so much in Europe. The Internet is flooded with articles claiming that China won’t control their own bank, some of which Cadence has too much dignity to link to. Does hiring Westerners to run the Chinese bank make it less “Chinese”? Beijing marketing departments might think so.

Isn’t it interesting that China is creating a bank for infrastructure while, at the same time, China is building up their military to knock-out existing infrastructure in places like Taiwan? All this Pacific infrastructure talk smells a little “fishy”, as it were. China wants to invest. The US doesn’t. The bank controversy may not be about politics, but about money—gambling on who will get a return on their investment after… “something” happens and “someone” wins.

China is building up in the Pacific and the US isn’t afraid to say so, especially to Taiwan. Taiwan made more great poses for the camera with the US, which China won’t like. Taiwan is rolling out a new political party, which the Establishment won’t like.

Chinese corruption and the environment crossed swords this week. No one seems to have asked why China has so much corruption. The answer would likely be that strong households maintain themselves first, while those who think more about their neighbors often leave the own homes in disrepair.

Chinese and Western press exchanges drew a little more attention than normal this week. We see a pattern in both press and policy: Poke at China and they spill their beans; oppose China from abroad and they try to annex you, “by force if necessary”. Michael Cole deserves a medal for getting a Chinese general to give away more of Beijing’s intentions, this time with classy Beijing graphics, though the Pacific Daily Times doesn’t exactly share a coterminous opinion on Israel; we like Israel at the Times. But Michael is as informed as he is thought provoking—and good at provoking the PLA into revealing strategy. With ISIS on the move so much that even Japan is watching, we all might come around to appreciating Israel for standing in their way.

What makes a nation aggressive? Will China give up its claim to the map if the good guys erase themselves from it? An academic blog article encourages the US to infiltrate China’s new bank, claiming that the US is partially to blame for its creation. While joining China’s AIIB might be a good idea—had war on the horizon not made it a risky investment for the Yanks—China didn’t create that AIIB bank because of lack of control in the IMF.

Obama’s election wouldn’t make Al Sharpton complain less nor would Israel’s annihilation suddenly make ISIS stop burning people alive. Limbaugh predicted it: Obama’s election preceded a spike in ethnic tension in America. ISIS is angry that they don’t already control Europe because Israel is in their way. If China controlled the IMF, the AIIB would already be open for business. And if China acquired Taiwan, Beijing would soon publish genealogical claims to Tokyo, and why not Jerusalem and Tehran too?

Top Stories

Britain’s Support for China’s AIIB Means Japan, Parroting the U.S., Is Trapped

…Old, but shows the controversy surfacing.

US reports on Chinese naval threat to Taiwan

“Friction between China and its neighbors appears increasingly likely as Beijing seeks to deter rival activities and assert its own claimed rights and interests.”

The Great Chinese Lie About Taiwan

…From J Michael Cole on China and the controversy *See more under Taiwan

Retired PLA General responds to J Michael Cole

…Photo of a Chinese General’s backlash against Cole (in his Chinese article) *See more under Taiwan

Territorial Claims in the South China Sea

…NY Times maps from 2012, informative

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Faux Report

Leaders of China, Japan, Philippines and Vietnam to Settle Island Disputes with Fight to the Death

BEIJING — Hailed as one of the biggest success stories to come out of APEC, the heads-of-state of China, Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam agreed on Tuesday to settle their territory disputes in the South China Sea with a classic, no-holds-barred fight to the death.

“We exhausted all other options,” said Philippine President Beningo Aquino III. “It’s the only way.”

In a rare interview with state media, Chinese President Xi Jinping revealed that the decisive battle will be a free-for-all held in Olympic Forest Park where “the only rule is there are no rules.”

“This brawl will be a turning point in global diplomacy.”

According to Xi, the park will be walled off and transformed into a Hunger Games-style battleground, complete with weapon caches and hidden traps.

“We will have to rely on our wits to survive,” said Vietnam’s President Truong Tan Sang.

Speaking at a press conference, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the respective heads-of-state have settled on a winner-take-all system, with the lone survivor’s country staking claim to all disputed islands in the South China Sea, including the Senkaku/Diaoyu, Paracel and Spratly Islands.

“This brawl will be a turning point in global diplomacy,” Abe said. “And I do not intend to lose.”

The leaders will have one week to train and prepare before the showdown on November 18.

At press time, Xi was studying a topographical map of Olympic Forest Park and trying to get an advance copy of The Hunger Games: Catching Fire.

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