Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 24, 2021

A democratic Pacific alliance is on the rise. Many nations in the Far East may host US troops, but a bond is forming between them that runs deeper than any US influence. At the center: Taiwan; across the battlefield: China, the great enemy of the Pacific peoples. That’s how this rising alliance sees it.

Taiwan has breakthroughs in micro-tech. The Philippines steps up rhetoric against China—which may not mean anything as words are mere words, but it is a very different direction than bowing down. Japan and Southern Korea tell China to knock it off. And, the British set sail for the Far East with the brand new, shiny HMS Queen Elizabeth and her entourage. This new Pacific family has friends on both sides of the Atlantic.

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, April 15, 2018

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LqVXfD2DliA

Events in China are playing out according to the "Pacific Daily Times Symphony Asian Mad Scientist Theorem". The experimental phase in North Korea is finished and methods are being applied throughout China on a much grander scale. This week, we see reports of expensive ghost cities, comparable to Pyongyang. The debt to build those ghost cities could be enough to break China's economy into the deprived status of northern Korea. Now, swelling human rights concern could court the West to support China's unfriendly neighbors to intervene in China as the "grand liberators".

If things continue on track with the theorem, China would end up in an armistice against its own provinces—a standoff between Beijing and fragments of the soon-to-be-formerly united China.

Trump continues to prove that he knows what he's doing with Kim Jong-Un. The DPRK's Great Successor will likely wise up, still venting steam once in a while. He seems to be one of the smartest heads of state in his region—seeking more cooperation with economic policies that work, not less. But even if not, Korea will not be a border for China to ignore. Beijing and its surrounding provinces would be the likely hold-out against a liberated Northwest, Tibet, Southern Canton, and it will need to keep a 24/7 guard in the Northeast. Break-aways could form their own federation, or not. Either way, as history repeats, we look to be headed for a Cold War -style standoff between fractured Chinese regions.

The US Marines are test driving "lightning carriers"—small aircraft carriers with a potently packed punch of F-35s. Their range radius is smaller, but so is their targetable shadow. In a Pacific conflict, a smattering of lightning carriers might prove more formidable than a single, central Nimitz class group. Federated, autonomous, small attack groups tend to be wise in warfare, as the French Revolution proved on land. We'll see at sea.

These smaller carriers are said to focus on smaller tasks, putting Nimitz class carriers—now being called "super carriers"—in the spotlight against China and Russia. And, we know that the Chinese think the spotlight is an indication of "importance". While Russia knows better, the Chinese probably don't. Just because headlines read that a Nimitz class focuses on China doesn't mean US strategy would fail if China's new "anti-carrier" missiles sunk a Nimitz. Sinking a Nimitz class carrier would only enrage the American public into a war that they couldn't lose. That's how history has always played out, anyway. But, the mistakes from history don't seem to have much impact on Chinese President Xi, who is determined to revive Maoism at any cost. If Maoism is revived, it's results will follow. That won't end the standoff with Taiwan; it will add more uncontrolled lands to the standoff it was never strong enough to resolve.

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 20, 2018

The silent war between the Koreas is shifting to family reunions. Families split by the war are having a get-together today in the North. Trump has a deal with Kim Jong Un. Peace is moving forward, and Korean reunification along with it. Reunification is one of China's values and things look great as they are. So, why does Xi Jinping need to go to North Korea? Does he also have family there? Perhaps he's trying to market himself.

China has been busy marketing itself around the world as of late, as has Taiwan. So goes the other silent war—the silent war between China and Taiwan, though it's becoming not quite so silent. Taiwan's President Tsai Ingwen traveled this week. While in California, she did one of the most controversial and disrespectful things a president could do: She visited a coffee shop. Oh, China is so angry! How dare she do that!

The Taiwanese coffee chain, 85°C, has a few locations in California and Tsai Ingwen went to one of them. They even gave her a bag. She did that just to spite China! That's all she ever thinks about. It's not that great of a coffee shop anyway. Don't visit there and try any of their lattes or cappuccinos or any of their many desserts. There are better things to do than just trying to spite China.

China protested, of course, as they rightly should for such a disrespectful thing Tsai Ingwen has done. Taiwan's Premier, William Lai, lashed back, as did Tsai Ingwen. They think China's not marketing itself rightly by objecting to evil things like visiting coffee shops. They want China to have a good image, but right now they think China's doing it the wrong way. What the heck do they know anyway?

Taiwan has its own marketing problems. Former AIT director, the envoy from America to Taiwan, William Stanton says that Taiwan needs to market itself better. While things cool off in the Koreas, the marketing battle between the China's is just warming up.

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, July 2, 2018

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x6ned0x

NBC reported news of recent months to counter news of recent weeks. It wouldn't be the first time NBC had a precarious definition of "news". Intelligence reports about very specific details of possible uranium production were broken as "news" by NBC. Bloomberg and others reported that NBC reported it. Taipei Times reported that Bloomberg reported that NBC reported it. NBC breaking this "older" news made more news than the outdated "news" itself. The whole claim smells smelly. It's likely a ruse, but we'll need about two weeks to know with confidence.

Hong Kongers like to protest so often that they are expected to protest annually. This year, protesters claimed a 50k head turnout; Hong Kong police estimated less than 10k, which would be a record low. Surely neither crowd estimate had any bias or motive to distort the numbers.

Remember, Hong Kong students like to protest more than is deserved. China could do better with counter-PR, but not much can be done when dealing with spoiled students. Don't be roused into hating China by the dwindling spoiled Hong Kongers. Protests are profitable in Hong Kong because they help sell newspapers in a market saturated with so many newspapers that they throw them at pedestrians on the sidewalks. Hong Kong's biggest problem is complacent Christians.

A more genuine problem of concern is the attention Chinese manufacturers are drawing from Western press coverage of Taiwan court rulings. Taiwan makes about 60% of the world's computer components. China wants in on the game and people are being prosecuted in Taiwan for stealing company secrets that would go to China. The biggest element of a case is in place: motive.

Most of the so-called "news" about trade wars are the most obvious. Companies are having problems with trade during a trade war. Really? This is considered news these days. Either that, or it is an obvious attempt to skirt the deeper issues behind the China-US trade war for global economy hopefuls hoping to sway public sentiment by reporting what was all foreseeable.

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 21, 2018

Talk only went so far this week. I looks as if North Korea might not be dismantling its nukes, but hiding them, then threatening to close talks when exposed for this, then threatening to cancel the summit for some other list of excuses.

The big question on Kim Jong-Un backing out on the talks relates to his recent visits to China. Not that China has made any wild promises, but he feels somewhat confident in getting lippy with the US.

The big lesson was about Moon's emphasis on diplomacy vs Trump's emphasis on teeth. Diplomacy made progress in terms of leading to more diplomacy. But, actual action is a measurement of its own. So far, Trump's action has led to China losing interest in any kind of trade war and Moon's favored diplomacy seems to be leading to an undiplomatic end to diplomacy.

Things aren't over nor have we seen the last surprise. The big news of the week is that China's on the bench. Moon and Trump will meet to discuss Kim having a discussion with them in Singapore. Where's China?—announcing its surrender on trade, reflecting on past meetings with Kim, another player that doesn't really matter.

If Kim doesn't show up, Moon's populist diplomacy will prove to have failed and Trump will have the "political currency" for action against North Korea. Maybe that's what China hopes for in allowing Kim to gain false hopes in something or other—to rationalize a little retaliatory action of its own. But, if military action was China's first preference, Beijing would have already taken it.

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 14, 2018

Disassembling nuke sites prior to meeting Trump may seem like a "save of face" for Kim Jong-Un, but it's actually a statement of Trump's influence. If Trump wasn't an influence, then Kim wouldn't be doing what Trump has been demanding for a long time. No doubt, North Korea and its pro-Communist supporters in the Liberal media will twist this into "Trump not making a difference" from Trump getting what he wanted even before a meeting.

The comparison from history would be a feudal lord quickly accomplishing everything his king asked before his next royal visit. To say the king didn't make a difference would be just plain ignorant. We should expect as much.

But, Trump wants it that way. The more Trump has his name on the Korean reunification, the more China's desperate thirst for "respect" will sting. China wants everything to look like everything everywhere was China's idea, or else throw a temper tantrum. Trump's low-key silence will deny the "fight fix" and the semi-centennial tantrum will have to wait a little longer.

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 7, 2018

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0d1Loi7sh1I

This was week of talk. A delegation from Washington went to talk with China. Trump talked about talking nice while talking. Economic talking heads are talking about the talks and everybody's talking about it. Once the delegation that went to Beijing to talk gets back, they will talk with Trump. Warren Buffet even had some things to talk about.

Trump's delegation to Beijing was indeed an olive branch. It spelled out "the line" in the sand, toured it, explained, it, discussed it, explored it, and made that line very, very clear. To quote Morgan Freeman's Lucius Fox, "Mr. Wayne didn't want you to think that he was deliberately wasting your time." But, the line is not the least bit likely to be respected.

China will ignore everything the US delegation explained and forewarned, but they will never be surprised when Trump does exactly what the delegation said he would, though they may act like it. More importantly, the list of expectations shows how well Trump knows China and Chinese methods of doing "business".

Words like "retaliate" and "oppose" often surface with disfavor, as well as the US clearly being wise to the tactic of unofficially using backdoor channels to unofficially impose other restrictions to get what one wants. And, the US maintains its position on the "301" trade notice that China is non-market economy, specifically that China is to drop the matter completely and withdraw its appeals on the matter with the WTO.

There is no wiggle room in the US demands and those demands strongly demonstrate that Trump knows exactly the kinds of things Chins is likely to do. In essence the list of demands forbids exactly what China is most likely to do in the near future.

By contrast, China's demands are mainly that the US back off on its recent action; that's all. Consider the argument going around from pro-China stories about the trade "imbalance"—especially that US' service and consulting help to narrow the "trade deficit". The list of Chinese demands don't account for this or ask that they be calculated in the "trade deficit".

The mere demands, in themselves, tell us that China does not know what is about to happen in Washington and that Trump knows all to well—probably better than any of his advisers in the White House—what will happen in Beijing. China is in great danger.

Surprises are coming, somewhere. That's how history always plays out. No war ends without the unexpected and there's always a joker or two hiding in the deck. The surprises will likely include special and disputed territories, such as Macau, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, as well as international public opinion and some sector of trade or international protocol not yet considered or discussed by anyone—they will surprise everyone. That "surprise sector" could include ocean boundaries or specific products often traded. It could also be an act of God, such as an earthquake, hurricane, or tsunami. But, we have no idea except that any intermediate history student should anticipate at least two surprises before the current cloud passes in the greater storm.

China looks at the US the way the poor working class looked at the aristocracy in Russia. Beijing thinks they are demanding "what is their right". Remember, this is akin to "Opium War III", started by a trade imbalance. China demands that the money and "tax payable by way of free technology" continue to flow net into China; the US demands things like "equal" and "fair" in the flow. That is rhetoric from the Opium War prelude. If that war resurfaces, the "English" speaking country won't be Britain, though Britain still has a dog in the fight: Hong Kong is not to be changed for fifty years, yet this week Hong Kong military youth groups—comparable to Boy Scouts—rejected Chinese requests that they march according to PLA marching steps—meaning that China tried to make a change and Hong Kong could become a target for punitive action from China. Hence, Hong Kong is "fair play" in everyone's opinion, including public opinion about everyone in the game.

If China had any kind of conflict with the West—whether militarily or over trade—the conclusion could require complete surrender of Hong Kong back to British rule—and Hong Kongers wouldn't mind.

In the territorial disputes, Taiwan declaring independence would certainly rock the boat. Research says Taiwanese overwhelmingly view China as unfriendly. So, Taiwanese certainly wouldn't mind making their contribution to making a few waves.

China is already on the bench with the Korean issue. Pyongyang just updated the North clocks to no longer be thirty minutes off, but back in time with the South. Where's China?—exchanging trade demands with the country whose trade blockade preceded the Korean talks.

In all this, Warren Buffet's advice is that China is a good place for the West to invest. We'll see.

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, January 22, 2018

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HHlDRgwTICY

Outcry against China over the Marriott crime of using the survey words "country" and "like" in reference to Tibet, Taiwan, and Hong Kong is over-rated. China has been shutting down propaganda channels and imprisoning people over such crimes for decades. But now, all of a sudden, China's routine becomes newsworthy? Something is amiss.

The press is stirring dissent against China in anticipation of a US-China conflict once the Korean situation is resolved. Without the Kim Dynasty, people won't be as panicked. Nothing will sell newspapers like a US-China war. Nothing helps a president get re-elected like a war supported by the public. To that end, everyone is playing their role perfectly.

The US-China conflict might be made possible merely because of Marriott's cleverly-worded survey. Marriott knew what they were getting into when they entered China's market. Marriott has lawyers and newspapers. Marriott should have known better. Management is lucky they are not being charged with attempting to appear as a public-stirring victim—like a Lusitania, Pearl Harbor, 9/11, Rosa Parks, or Trayvon Martin. The fact that China isn't pursuing Marriott for committing the crime on purpose begs the question: Does China understand the subtlety of Western mind games? Maybe they don't.

When the press remains free, authorities have to learn how to play more clever games, like Jackson, FDR, Reagan, Clinton, W. Bush, Obama, and Trump. When the press isn't free, authorities never develop those skills at playing games with the press. Those governments just print what they want without having to manipulate the press into thinking it was their own idea. If Marriott wanted to start a war, they got the press in both China and the US to print exactly what they wanted as masterfully as Donald Trump does. Does China recognize that or not?

It almost seems as if China wants to pay the West the courtesy of a warning shot across the bow: Exit now. That's the Western takeaway, anyhow. Everyone has their cultural DNA. Individual and societal culture can change, but slowly. When a person's individual culture easily and greatly offends a certain group of people, that person will avoid those people rather than change. If that person does change his culture to appease an easily-offended group, he will probably lose his friends. Either way, offense builds walls more than bridges. China is known for all three.

In the West, being easily offended is a sign of weakness, not strength. China's response will seem like an over-reaction in the US, thereby not only enraging Americans to support action against China, but emboldening them with the notion that the US would likely win—all on the grounds that Americans believe that easily-offended parties are weak. The strong don't care enough to be offended at all, right?

China's response, however, will embolden people within China. Any aggressive "power" assertion is seen by Chinese culture as a sign of strength and makes the masses gladly get in line. So, both the people of the US and China will be emboldened against each other—except of course for dissidents in both countries. US dissidents will hate the US, just as Chinese dissidents will hate China. That's what dissidents do.

The big lesson this week: Conflict is coming and everyone knows it. That's the only thing newsworthy. Reporting on the Chinese and Americans acting like Chinese and Americans is "news" so old, it's timing is mere propaganda.

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, January 15, 2018

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCG14hyDWu8

Jeffery Lewis at the Daily Beast has finally found a solution to the problem with North Korea: Kim Jong Un's port-a-potty. By bombing the dynastic successor's port-a-potty, the US would demonstrate both precision and presence. This would be the proverbial "arrow" from Robin Hood, conveniently shooting its way into the Sheriff's chamber.

Though the "papers" have not been "supplied" to top "brass" at press time, the premise has merit: showing that the US means business by "denying entry" for Kim to do his. While the "move" would surely cause an "emergency", their could be new security concerns about "individual privacy". The strategic proposal does not clarify whether or not to strike the "facility" while it is "occupied" by Kim "forces".

As for other port-a-potties in the region, China and Taiwan are deep in their own "potty" match. China is unilaterally opening new flight routs, reportedly in violation of agreements under the International Civil Aviation Organization. New flight routs are "required" to be coordinated first, but these were not. China simply "activated" them. The routs are very close to Taiwan airspace and Taiwan has made quite the buzz about it.

The US further complicated matters with a unanimously-passed bill from the House: the Taiwan Travel Act, which allows for high-level diplomatic visits between the US and Taiwan "under respectful conditions". The bill serves to support a shared "commitment to democracy". The House also passed HR 3320, which directs the Secretary of State to strategize for Taiwan to regain "observer status" at the World Health Assembly, which Taiwan failed to obtain in years past.

China made its own moves, particularly with doubts on the continued purchase of US Treasury bonds. That sent tremors through the markets in multiple directions.

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 25, 2017

This week was incredibly calm in Asia. China has some non-defined goals of grandeur, though some voices in the Western press cast their usual doubts. China's big obstacle with becoming a tech leader is two-fold: 1. lack of measurable methods and 2. social media.

Westerners use Facebook and Google to communicate with friends, family, and associates. By blocking Facebook, China is blocking Westerners as well as leading technology. By definition, "global" methods can't merely involve competitor social media unique to China. Whether China has good reason to block the social media giants is a separate question altogether. If China wants to become a leader, it must have a measurable, defined way forward in its tech and trade ambitions, which must include how to involve people and markets that it has blocked by proxy.

Korea was also unusually quiet. The saber rattling took a hiatus over the holiday pre-week. On Christmas, North Korea was sure to puff its chest out, but that's about all. It is entirely possible that the problems in Korea will magically and abruptly vanish, Korea will be united, and both the Communists and the Westerners will just go home. But, that would never have happened without the mounting pressure from both sides.

Whatever reconciliation comes at the end of this Korean "situation", we will have both North Korea and the US military presence to thank for it. Should whatever new Korea emerges snub the US for providing the pressure to resolve a conflict no one else could, Korea's best days would thus be in the past. Keeping friendship during times of peace is vital to keeping that peace. Lasting peace in Korea means lasting peace among Koreans as well as its friends and neighbors. Should there be a bloodless peace in Korea and America troops just up and leave, the US will probably beef-up its presence with Taiwan. That would be the other shift.

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 30, 2017

In the daily governance of Hong Kong, China has proven itself as a competent overseer. Hong Kong's "Basic Law", a kind of mini-constitution imposed not by referendum, keeps the SAR autonomous. Hong Kongers have only two reasons for complaint, having not chosen the Basic Law for themselves and the gentrification of Chinese money re-defining native Hong Kongers as a new lower class living among some of the most expensive real estate in the world.

Crud hit the fan, however, when Beijing decided to "vet" Hong Kong politicians in advance. The Basic Law makes no direct provision for advanced-vetting, a statutory or policy decision heavily subject to interpretation. Youth are often quick to complain. In the minds of Hong Kong youth, Beijing's advanced-vetting policy is a violation of the Basic Law. Accordingly, Hong Kong youth have no interest in learning about the Basic Law from Beijing.

Now, Beijing has planned a Hong Kong -wide broadcast from a Mainlander—a Chinese speaking from Beijing's view—to educate Hong Kong students about the Basic Law. Schools are under no obligation to participate in Beijing's offer, so the public is led to understand. But, when your higher authority vets your politicians without a word-for-word clause to justify it, then invites your school to optionally learn how to follow the law, it is difficult not to feel some kind of pressure to "volunteer".

The best thing for China to earn good will is to rescind the advanced-vetting policy in favor of Hong Kong's local interpretation of the Basic Law and to allow only three schools to listen to the Basic Law address, applying with good reason. That's "basic law" of supply-and-demand economics. But, those ideas may be difficult for the Communist regime to quickly grasp.

So, it looks like China's path ahead will see plenty of conflict and strife. The student objections to the Basic Law seminar will by no means be the last, nor will it be Beijing's last attempt to educate Hong Kong's population.

The US has its own approach to PR. Notice how Korea made fewer Western headlines this week, though the situation is far from finished. Trump's planned visit, purportedly to include the Korean DMZ, is certainly a bold move to demonstrate courage from a leader and to eclipse North soldiers' respect for Kim Jong Un who wouldn't dare to get close. Don't be surprised if Trump walks right up to the border and speaks through a megaphone and says, "Where is Kim Jong Un? He can talk to me. Your leader is a coward. Don't trust him." Don't be surprised. Such a move befits Trump and would begin a cascade of implosion from within the Kim Dynastic ranks.

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 16, 2017

It's not quite there yet. Korea's conflict escalates, but there's still more mount to climb. Trump is increasing weapons sales to South Korea and Japan, based on a September 5 Tweet; North Korea called him a "strangler of peace" and a "war merchant". Mattis told the Army to "Stand ready". Hawaii is rehearsing for attacks.

Most of the talk is to get everyone psyched-up plenty of time in advance—soldiers, nations, and peoples. The timing, however, will come at a convergence of defenses being in place and opportunity being open. Then, the US will either strike with "just cause" or "strik-taliate" as it did with Pearl Harbor and the Lusitania.

In the meanwhile, expect the escalation to continue. Expect more Navy strike groups to be directed. Expect the USS Ford to replace the decommissioned USS Enterprise and the USS Reagan to replace the USS Vinson, somewhere in East Asia. Three aircraft carriers, two on their way in and one their way out is certainly a military peak. But, also keep an eye out for a shift in types of Korea-related headlines followed by a quiet from central command. Once the press release statements resemble a ship casting off, that's what you call a clue. And, we haven't been clued in quite yet.

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 14, 2017

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACyV1rT872s

A campaign is slowly mounting its ground swell against Philippine President Duterte concerning his past corruption. The Philippines is littered with classic "mafia-machine" style corruption, making it generally easy to find scandals on politicians. This has been building against the new Filipino president since about the same time the Philippines has needed aid from the US against ISIS, all while the Filipino president campaigns on a continued platform of moving away from the US so as not to be "dependent" on anyone, a normal sentiment in Filipino populism.

A similar media war is mounting against both China and North Korea. This week, they came together in a story about "Made in China" -labeled goods actually being made in North Korea. Also, an old story was rehashed about the Chinese using "scientific underwater drones" in the South Sea, which could be used for military purposes, if nothing more than to make underwater maps for the Chinese and to spot American submarines.

It's not far-fetched or newsworthy to claim that the Chinese could use academic or scientific tools for the military. China wouldn't be the first to perform military operations in the name of "science". China's diesel-powered aircraft carrier, the Soviet-made Liaoning, was purchased from Russia to be little more than a "floating museum". Now, it has been reverse-engineered to model at least four more aircraft carriers from China. China's underwater drones first made headlines not long after the Chinese captured a similar drone from the US.

There seems to be a trend that China's tech is reverse-engineered, not invented. More interestingly is the role the US has played. Better said, how the US has played China. It wasn't fair, but it was avoidable.

China wouldn't have most of its tech or its money for these military aggressions if American tech companies weren't outsourcing jobs to China. Companies only did that because Americans were obsessed with saving a few pennies on their goods. The country learned to copy those goods and took American money doing it, then got a big wallet, then got a big head. If the US had confronted "Shame" culture in its cultural exchanges—government, business, and otherwise—and educated whatever Chinese people they met in daily dealings and insisted on using the Biblical view of "repentance unto hope", China's government wouldn't be trying to "save face" quite so much and might even be cleaning things up at home a bit more.

Then, we have foiled military operations, this week, a crash in Australia. A truly-gone-awry military operation won't be so easily plastered across headlines. The West is trying to look weak in the eyes of the Chinese while mounting a press war against China and North Korea to stir popular support for action. That action is, indeed, becoming necessary, but only after unnecessary trade money and methods made it so.

The swelling conflict in the Pacific could have all been avoided if Americans had simply insisted on paying a few more pennies to buy American. But, it's too late to turn back. Now, American taxpayers will have to pay for an expensive, otherwise unnecessary war against their manufacturer.

Everyone is accountable for their own choices, but the US knew better. Americans know the Bible's teaching "to get one's own life in order first" and to confront "Shame" by teaching the good news of "forgiveness". But, the US didn't do that with China, not in business and not even the Christians in dealing with Chinese churches in America. While it is all sad, the bigger victim is China.

Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, July 31, 2017

Xi Jingping told his military the same thing China has been telling its people for decades: The world needs us, our military, our might, and our expansion, otherwise there can be no peace. This proves a static ethic. From this perspective, China wants the US to remain calm and not take action in North Korea.

Meanwhile, South Korea’s president wants the US to wait while he negotiates with the North for safety in the US. South Korean people want much the same thing Filipinos want: non-dependence. South Korea’s president, South Korea’s people, and China all want the US to “get out”. Interestingly, they share this sentiment with North Korea.

The world is full of political ideologies that claim half of one thing and do half of another. The best chance at victory is to simply stay home and do good work there. In that, the South Korean people stand the greatest chance of victory. Yet, the United States stands the greatest chance of taking action for two reasons: the US is being threatened more than any other and the US is willing to take action more than any other. If the US takes out the North, they can leave and the South Koreans will get what they want. But, things rarely happen as they should.

Only two things are foreseeable: conflict and Korean unification. All the rest is conjecture.

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