America has China fooled yet again. It isn’t hard to figure out, but still ingenious. Whatever strategist first learned it from a convenient mistake that happened with Taiwan. Taiwan’s current president, Tsai Ing-Wen, had previously endorsed Hillary, for 2016—a mistake she didn’t repeat in the 2020 election. When Trump was elected, Taiwan’s government was heavily concerned about retaliation from the Trump administration. But, Americans don’t hold grudges nor do we hold high regard for the opinions of foreign world leaders. Tsai reached out to Trump and they soon developed one of the best relationships heads of state ever shared.
China’s president, Xi Jinping, doesn’t seem to have learned that lesson, however. While many world leaders congratulated Biden when the news industry decided what the future should be, China waited until the GSA got the green light for transition steps. Then, he congratulated Biden on his victory. Taiwan still has not made any move since the electoral college has not convened and remains neutral and welcoming toward whomever the American president will be in January. China’s position shows worry mixed with miscalculation.
When Trump’s lawsuits, appeal to state legislatures, and near 80% support from his suspecting base land him a second term, China will be in for a shock. They will fear retaliation just as Taiwan did, no matter how unwarranted. This will drive China to take defensive measures without need and appear as the provocateur of the coming US-China conflict. Having served its purpose, US ambiguity over the election will quickly pass, and China’s leadership will begin to socially self destruct. Then hold on; things will be furious as they will be fast.
Indo-Pacific
To be taken seriously, Quad needs military heft, not desultory naval exercises // India Express
Navy sends aircraft carrier USS Nimitz back to Persian Gulf // NY Post
Trade & Tech
Trump to add China’s SMIC and CNOOC to defense blacklist: Reuters // CNBC
Huawei founder says American politicians wants to kill the company // Android Authority
China
Exiled bookseller: ‘If they can take Hong Kong back, the next place is Taiwan’ // Guardian
Beijing takes its South China Sea strategy to the Himalayas // Economic Times
Beijing Takes Its South China Sea Strategy to the Himalayas // Hindia News
China’s Xi Jinping Congratulates Biden On Election Win, Urges Cooperation // NPR
Xi Jinping calls to congratulate Joe Biden on election win // Guardian
Taiwan
Usage of hotline for foreigners takes off amid pandemic // Taipei Times
Fists and pig guts fly in Taiwan parliament debate on U.S. pork // Yahoo News
Taiwan starts submarine production // Taipei Times
Korean Peninsula
North Korea Covid: Why Kim Jong Un is cutting off China // CNN
India
China responds to India banning 43 additional Chinese apps // CNBC
Military Faceoff
Aboard USS Ford: More Weapons, More Launches, Faster & Safer // Breaking Defense
Naval Group Opens Office in Philippines with Submarine Deal in Sight // Naval News
Iran launches unconventional aircraft carrier against US threat // FleetMon