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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, January 19, 2016

Victory! Taiwan finally defeated the old enemy of the East that the Chinese Communists could not. The KMT-Nationalist party has rarely faced such a stunning defeat. The enemy of the revolution, murderer of Taiwanese and thieves of Asia’s greatest assets, the witch of the East met her end at the hands, not of soldiers and explosives, but of democracy.

Beijing would have worldwide respect in declaring victory and normalizing relations. But the land of Sun Tzu seems to have forgotten the basics of war: If one government controls an entire region, then an enemy only need take-out the central government for the entire land to fall. If Taiwan were a Chinese province, China would be less safe. As an ally that China itself could not take—an attack against China would be unwise for any adversary. But, again, Beijing seems more bent on delusions of pride than real safety. The best kept secret about respect is not that it must be earned and not bestowed, but that those who state their respect rarely mean it. Having respect of others and having others show respect are entirely different things. This is a lesson the KMT-Nationalists still haven’t seemed to learn.

China had it’s own streak this week. More than one teary-eyed apology cross the air-waves. The world continues to see China for what it is while Beijing counts more ill will an indication of progress. Perhaps Beijing is right.

Taiwan’s confidence in voting overwhelmingly for a political party that will not cow-tow to China’s hostile takeover agenda sends a message to China. While the messengers in Beijing may not deliver, the people of China read it loud and clear, perhaps for the first time: A single government can have a new political party and the people do not need to bend to the dictates of the old establishment.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, January 11, 2016

China’s economic shaking may have had more of a placebo than newspapers let on. Devalued Chinese yuan does not contribute to lower oil prices as much as the decisions of the Arabs. Even if it has a factor, lower oil prices are healthier for economies as it keeps costs lower. Perhaps China’s slowdown is good for everyone except China, and of course, Africa.

The disappearance of Hong Kong bookseller, Lee Bo, has Hong Kongers in a tizzy, still not as severe as the Umbrella Movement that ended just over a year ago. Much like the Umbrella Movement, while protests will result in little change concerning Beijing’s Hong Kong SAR policy, the world is evermore aware that there is not change.

Taiwan is set for a historic election. The opposition DPP is likely to win the presidency and likely the legislature, which would be a first. Wanting to be “friends” with Beijing has so far been the goal of the DPP and the Taiwanese, but would be seen as an insult of Beijing which wants “reunification” instead. The consequences could echo Taiwan’s first presidential election in 1996 when China shot a missile across the island.

With the tensions in the area, particularly the flyovers and bomb testing in the Koreas and protests in Hong Kong, the foreseeable diplomatic response of the White House would be in spite of an American public that is evermore aware of China’s methods and nonetheless more determined to answer.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 28, 2015

China steps up its game again. While companies won’t be required to give Beijing power to indiscriminately snoop the web, they are on notice to cooperate with coming procedures if they are asked. This time wasn’t the first, but it’s a little more clear, a little more friendly, and a little more toothy than the last.

Taiwan’s likely Presidential victor party, the DPP, has adopted a policy effectively outlawing the KMT-Nationalist party practice of owning for-profit businesses. The policy is wise by many measures, respect from the US and an even greater increase in voter support notwithstanding.

Since the US stepped up its own game, $1.8B to Taiwan, China is not happy.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 30, 2015

Strength against China grows. The people of Taiwan don’t hate China; they want friendship with China. This makes them stronger than people who want subordinates and acquisitions. Communist Beijing and pro-China-control Taipei seem out of touch.

Research consistently demonstrates that a sizable majority of Taiwanese identify themselves as quite distinct from China. The KMT-Nationalist establishment views national sentiment as a result of opposition party propaganda rather than the opposition party’s power being an expression of national sentiment. The Nationalists don’t seem to understand that their policies help their opposition more than any campaign strategy could.

China rejected the entry of the young Miss World Canada winner. She wanted to participate in the global contest in Hainan. She spoke out on Human Rights and was turned away at her connection terminal. This put her in the global spotlight. Yet, it is doubtful that Beijing will be able to recognize, let alone accept, the power they gave this young girl.  · · · →

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 9, 2015

The two presidents of the two governments of China met in Singapore. The exiled government was protested on the island where it remains in exile. It was a wild week. Taiwan’s president, Ma, defended the importance of dialog while nearly every branch of his government clashed with protests.

The meeting comes at the brink of significant change. Taiwan is about to undergo a historic turnover of political powers. This may be the last chance the fading KMT-Nationalist establishment has for high-profile dialog with their Communist arch enemy in Beijing.

While China appears as strong as it is controversial, the US whispers about undisclosed technologies that the Communists will not want to encounter in the Pacific. Everyone has his story.

China

A Day After Summit, China Again Warns Taiwan Against Independence

US defense chief warns of conflict in S. China Sea

…”‘Surprising’ new technologies”

Goldman’s BRIC Era Ends as Fund Folds After Years of Losses

…”The excitement came from the rapid growth from China…”

Taiwan

Ma defends significance of meeting with Xi

Protesters, police injured in overnight demonstrations

…Sunflower students return, stormed military base, college official arrested, police clash at legislature and presidential palace

Meeting limits Taiwan’s cross-strait options: Tsai

Further reading…

Protesters rally to condemn meeting

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, September 21, 2015

China mostly talked this week. And they plan to talk more next week with Obama about Taiwan’s elections. Taiwan now allows 5,000 new Chinese visitors per day and China will give Taiwanese electronic passes in their visits. This raises questions about why China wants so many people in Taiwan while making Taiwanese in China easier to track. US experts think that Taiwan will be more difficult to defend from a Chinese invasion over the coming years.

Japan’s National Diet gave the nod for international military action for the first time in seven decades. China had some words about that too, having more to do with Japan’s military staying at home than with China’s military staying at home.

Thousands pour through Austria seeking shelter

…Europe is not the only continent with more international visitors

Japan

Okinawan governor to revoke permit for U.S. base relocation work

Japanese, China express opposition to law change

Japan enhances military’s role as contentious legislation passed

Support for Abe sags even further in more polls

China says Japan security law ‘threat’ to regional peace

U.S.  · · · →

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 31

Kim’s dismissal of top military leaders mirrors the downfalls of history. Top leaders are Kim’s strongest supporters. North Korea’s power could be imploding. “One Korea” could happen peacefully.

Japan prepares to make it’s military more deployable. The US gave the nod in recent months. Now, the Japanese government is ready to follow suit. Japan has maintained a “defense-only” military as a condition of the WWII surrender. Soon, Japan will be able to aid in regional conflict, such as with Korea or, say, Taiwan and Beijing.

China’s spotlight is more of a laser. Taiwanese officials take domestic flack over attending a Chinese V-Day celebration. The US isn’t happy about spying. China isn’t happy about reporting. Sanctions are on the way.

China

U.S. developing sanctions against China over cyberthefts

China says 197 punished in crackdown on online rumors

Japan

Thousands protest Abe, security bills at Diet rally

…Soon to be allowed to deploy troops for wider range of reasons

Korea

North, South Korea agree to defuse crisis after marathon talks

North Korea’s Kim ousts top officials, credits nuclear weapons with securing deal

South Korea Red Cross proposes family reunion talks with North

North Korea agrees to talks with South on family reunions

Taiwan

Why Taiwanese leaders should skip the Victory Day parade in Beijing

…Inside baseball on the China-Taiwan conflict.  · · · →

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, June 8, 2015

A week of political campaigns. Imagine if John McCain were under review to be kicked out of the Republican Party for not supporting big money enough, there was no strong Republican Candidate, Hillary was already the Democratic nominee, and McCain said, “If the RNC orders me to, it would be my duty to run for President.”

That’s what happened in Taiwan this week. Wang Jin-pyng, Speaker of Taiwan’s puppet Legislator (which cannot introduce its own legislation) is hated by party bosses of his own KMT-Nationalist party. And he offered to run if the party asks him to, which, of course it won’t. That party never supports any good ideas, especially good ideas that would win favor with the people. They have been too interested in winning the favor of the Beijing Communists. Wang would be the best candidate since the party has destroyed itself with all the footsie-footsie games it played with China over the years, especially over the last decade.  · · · →

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 25, 2015

The US flies over China’s man-made islets, China is is not happy. China wants Taiwan to fight to protect China’s sovereignty, which China may think includes their man-made islets. The UN does not recognize man-made islands as a rightful claim to sovereign waters, but that is exactly what China is doing. The US won’t have it.

Chinese professors are accused of stealing US technology, the Pentagon is involved. Asia in general, except China, is irritated with Chinese and American meddling in Taiwan’s presidential elections.

Taiwanese protesting China were beaten by tattooed men in black clothes. China’s economy may not be the best, but it’s banks may be, at least Forbes thinks so. Everyone seems to have an opinion on everyone else these days. For better or worse, no one seems to want to stay home.

Top

Exclusive: China warns U.S. surveillance plan

…CNN video from the spy plane

The US Position on the ‘1992 Consensus’: Why it Matters

Japan

Stay out of Taiwan presidential race

…Editorial from Japan Times

China

Chinese banks took the four top spots in Forbes’ list of the world’s most powerful companies

…Charts

China signs US$27 billion oil, trade deals with Brazil

Two Chinese professors ‘stole US technology’

Taiwan

Anti-China demonstrators attacked by black-clad men

…After catching the black-clad men, the police let them go

China rejects Taipei’s defiance on law

Ma’s disapproval rating near 70%: polls

What Would Taiwan Actually Gain from Reunification with China?  · · · →

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, April 20, 2015

China’s economy is getting “worserer and worserer”. Their progress seems to have been hyped. Then again, that could be said of everyone. Banking is all over the news—all over. But the real reasons for such economic conflict and shuffling between West and East remains unsaid. The US is spread too thin. Taiwan is focusing on military. And Japan is focusing on ISIS. Banking doesn’t seem like much news… Then again, maybe the excess of worldwide headlines about banking should be very big news in itself. Maybe the headlines aren’t as excessive as the iceberg beneath the surface.

China

China ‘suspends until further notice’ bank technology restrictions opposed by the US

…Indicating the real reason for China’s new bank?

…And a great excuse for the West to leave China, which already seems to be happening…

China’s incredible shrinking factories

…Taiwanese are pulling out of the Mainland.

HSBC speeds up exit from emerging markets

…More bank pulling and shifting

China GDP growth lowest since 2009

…And the Premiere is even talking about it…

Downward pressure on China’s economy ‘increasing’, admits premier

We Traveled Across China and Returned Terrified for the Economy

…Notice in the video, he says that “it” is good in the long term, though he never clarifies what “it” is.  · · · →

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